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The Champion Chase looks like being a good race. Ladbrookes have put newmill 4-1 after winning 2day. I fancy Sporazene 25-1. Wots everyone think<br> <br> Well Chief 7/4 <br> Newmill 4/1 <br> Voy Por Ustedes 4/1 <br> Nickname 7/1 <br> Monets Garden 10/1 <br> Ashley Brook 12/1 <br> Dempsey 14/1 <br> Foreman 16/1 <br> Accordion Etoile 20/1 <br> Justified 25/1 <br> Sporazene 25/1 <br>
I’m gutted. I am a huge fan of Newmill but was anticipating him getting turned over today easily and therefore drifting out to 8/10-10/1 to make it a great bet. I got the double sting though as I didn’t back it today either!
Well Chief is a worthy favourite, but Newmill didn’t really get much credit for last year’s victory. The bookmakers are hardly giving anything away either are they? I would sit tight I think and wait for the prices on the day.
If Newmill is as good as last year he’ll be placed. No reason to think he isn’t. However hard to see how he can beat Well Chief if that rival runs to his best, no reason to think he can’t.
I think todays’s form is worth very little. All 3 horses looked legless to me, Harchibald looks to have some sort of physical problem, Macs Joy found little and got tired quickly, Newmill got tired less quickly.
Sproazene has absolutely no chance in the Champion Chase imo.
In my opinion Mac’s Joy never deserved to be as shorter price as he was today, the ground was dreadful, something which i think he hates. Especially when stamina is still an issue for me with him.
Again, i don’t think the form was much today but Newmill could do no more than win and win well.
I don’t think he can beat Well Chief but he will get placed as long as his jumping holds up.
i think that whichever way you look at it, it was an ordinary performance today from Macs joy. The flatter track big races after cheltenham will surely be the real targets now.
IMO the form Well Chief showed a couple of years ago against Moscow Flyer and Azerty was far ahead of that achieved by subsequent rivals. His recent comeback in the Game Spirit indicated that all or at least enough of the old ability remains ,which should be good enough to take the Champion provided his leg holds up and he doesn’t bounce. He also goes on any ground. That said, all value has now gone since Newbury.
Today’s hurdle race at Gowran was predictably a muddling small field affair on gruelling ground. Newmill set the gallop and took a couple of notable scalps which at least indicates that he is in good heart and unaffected by a fall over fences last time out. The rivals he vanquished at Cheltenham and Punchestown last year were pretty uninspiring but he may well be a bit underrated as a result. Should run a place.
Of the others, VPU has never really impressed me, taking advantage of weight concessions last season. Failed to complete against Well Chief in his prep. race but fitness shouldn’t be an issue if confidence unaffected.
Nickname- needs soft ground and connections don’t seem keen on Cheltenham.
Foreman- finished distressed at Newbury and described as "too slow" for the Champion by McCoy.
Dempsey- good confidence boosting show last time out under Murphy but won’t have him aboard and likely to finish on the floor under A. Tinkler
Sporazene- no chance against the principals
Ashley Brook- may go for the Ryanair anyway and fans clinging to the hope he bounced at Newbury when also going a yard too fast. That said, hard to disregard the memory of Well Chief sauntering past him and visualise a reversal of the form.<br> <br>Winner Well Chief but now no value.
I’m no speed expert but I wouldn’t have thought that the Red Mills Hdl was a muddling affair. The big 3 left the rags for dead almost a mile from home which would not have been the case if they went too slow.
Indeed, they went a right gallop from the word off today.
If the real Well Chief turns up at Cheltenham he will win it by 4-5 lenghts…Newmill should be there to pick up a place though.
On the contrary, I think 7/4 represents excellent value for Well Chief, unless someone can present a probable case of him getting beaten (not a remotely possible one).
Quote: from Salselon on 11:44 pm on Feb. 17, 2007[br]On the contrary, I think 7/4 represents excellent value for Well Chief, unless someone can present a probable case of him getting beaten (not a remotely possible one).
He bounces!
2 reasons why I would disagree.
1. He hardly had a race in the Game Spirit<br>2. There is more than enough time to rid a horse of any potential ‘bounce factor’ (if one so exists!) between date of Game Spirit and QM Champion Chase.
If Well Chief is as good as he was a couple of years back he wins baring accidents.
However, the Game Spirit didn’t tell us that much really his biggest rival fell early on and Ashley Brook for me disappointed. On that evidence we know Well Chief retains plenty of ability but we can’t be certain just how much.
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Quote: from Flash on 12:23 am on Feb. 18, 2007[br]If Well Chief is as good as he was a couple of years back he wins baring accidents.
However, the Game Spirit didn’t tell us that much really his biggest rival fell early on and Ashley Brook for me disappointed. On that evidence we know Well Chief retains plenty of ability but we can’t be certain just how much. <br>
Ashley Brook actually ran a s/f of 171 in this race; impressive enough in itself – and 4lbs higher than anything he had achieved previously.
Lord…. if I can’t have Well Chief, please send me a few disappointing horses.:)
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