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Let’s recap the Tingle Creek once again: What happened there?
Well, a race fit 2m4f horse beat a 2m Sandown specialist (UDS) by a neck. However, the Mullins stable was rather quiet at that time and you couldn’t have expected UDS to be at 100%. He was rather 85%-90% fit, if you consider how many beaten favorites the stable had during the Christmas period and in the weeks before.
Then the 3rd placed horse (WP) was and still is a 2m5f horse, the same applies for the 4th (Janika) and 5th (Politologue) placed horses.
Was the 2019 Tingle Creek a 2m chase after all? It was, but mostly contested by 2m5f horses that were fitter than the aging 2m specialist who had his first run of the season.
The last two champion chases have been run on soft ground and Un De Sceaux was nowhere to be seen! Yes, on his day he’s ran some excellent races over two miles on soft ground.
Good point i didn’t actually notice that. I do think that’s because he’s more versatile and has won at the trip at the course.
I think the clue to him being slightly on the decline at 12 was finishing just under 5 lengths in front of the 143 rated Marracudja last time! Whatever you think of the controversy afterwards with the handicap mark, that is clear evidence he’s not the horse he was (in his favoured ground) and to me highlights the couple of easy tasks DDS has had in the absence of Altior…
I suppose that’s part of the question with Defi, for me Townend didn’t give UDS a forceful enough ride at all. It was a poor run on the numbers. Marracudja was ridden to pick up the place money etc.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!If Le Richebourg was fit and had done well this season, he would be running here and Defi would be in the Ryanair. Connections cannot seriously think they are going to beat Altior or even Chacun on last season’s form.
Must say I’m really surprised they haven’t left him in the Ryanair too to see what the ground is like because surely on good ground he’s in all sorts of trouble?
They say it was a weak renewal last year but if the ground comes up decent I’d back Sceau Royal and Politologue both before Defi…
Dont think the ground matters to defi myself
He has that finishing burst of speed on gd ground and heavy ground over
Altior is the one to beat for me now though
He looked to have his spark back, he had looked unusually laboured since the tingle creek until last week
But he went past sceau royal who was travelling on the bridle like he was standing still
Am I right in thinking Defi is favourite now he been confirmed as a runner ? , there,s plenty 5/2 about Altior , bookies don’t seem to frightened , I’ve already played defi a number of times and I’m going to back him up with Dynamite Dollars e.w , he,s the value , wouldn’t touch Chacun pour soi with a barge pole
I was a DDS supporter till now; similar profile to Dodging Bullets and Sire de Grugy, who both won at Sandown and Ascot before prevailing at decent prices. But Altior was most impressive on Saturday, that burst fo speed after the last was quite compelling, even the field was comparatively weak.
The narrative around Altior is hugely interesting.
Very strong through the line on Saturday but on my figures (and maybe official ones) Altior was down around 6-7lbs from Ascot to Newbury.
His Ascot form was his best for around 18 months and his Newbury form very similar to his 2 mile form against inferior horses (compared to Cyrname, Chacun & Defi).
Frankly, without going into an NJH wormhole, he looks like he needs stepping up in trip.Tbf Altiors race was run off a slow pace. So more horses were in with a chance. Therefore it’s understandable he ran a few lbs below his best. I expect the Champion Chase to be different altogether, fastly run.
I still personally believe beating Sceau Royal in the manner he did on decent ground is a better piece of form than either of DDS or CPS has achieved yet!
The suggestion he wants further when his record over two miles is flawless is absurd to me? As the old saying goes…if it ain’t broke…his strength has always been how he finishes his races and on Saturday proved in emphatic style that is still the case…
And to answer an earlier point regarding ground for DDS…I know his trainer says ground isn’t an issue but his chase record would suggest otherwise to me…he’s won 6/9 and the three he’s been beat in were all on better ground…at shorter trips he’s been beat both times on decent ground so to me he’s not as good as when it’s really testing…
I’m not the biggest fan of CPS as I think he lacks experience, has never run at the course and has been beaten by a two and a half miler but if it was decent ground I don’t see DDS reversing last seasons Punchestown form and I’d readily back Sceau Royal ahead of the pair of them if it’s decent ground…
He always looks like he could do with running further as he is always doing his best work late on
I think he could stay further and one race isn’t great evidence as he was against a top horse on a course that he runs really well on. It was 1st time out for the season aswell and the horse seems to have had a few problems straight after so may not have been right on the day. That said his record over 2m is spot on so just as well try and win a third CC and if it goes wrong they could still step him up in tripBlackbeard to conquer the World
It’s hard to put figures to an altior performance because of his run style
Hes not a strong traveller with a high cruising speed like sprinter sacre or douvan
He is lazy and keeps plenty for himself, he could run in a novice chase and still only win by 5 lengths
To my eye the spark was back at newbury, he hasnt shown that devastating kick since the 2018 champion chase
He looked unusually laboured for altior in most of his races in 2019
Genuinely cant wait for this race, could be one of the best races in recent times with 3 170+ horses going head to head
I still personally believe beating Sceau Royal in the manner he did on decent ground is a better piece of form than either of DDS or CPS has achieved yet!
Surprised you like Sceau Royal as a horse more than Min or Un De Sceaux tbh! Not sure i could agree with that at all.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Sceau Royal is a bridesmaid , bit like The new one was , will win races but put in his place when the proper horses turn up , I agree Jack , best race since Moscow Flyer , Azertyioup and Well Chief
Just my opinion Jack…Sceau Royal has some very good form over two miles, especially on good ground…he’s twice finished 2nd to Altior travelling really well and just failing against the best two miler of the last 3-4 years…he was placed in last seasons champion chase on ground probably slower than what he’s shown his best on and was over 7 lengths in front of Min in that race…that’s 3 or 4 lengths more than CPS finished in front of him…
Un De Sceaux is 12 now and if Sceau Royal ran against him on good ground and they were both even money who would you back?
As yet Defi hasn’t faced a horse the quality of Altior..Sceau Royal has and hasn’t been far away three times so looks a lot more solid to me.
I did say if it was decent ground…because that is Sceau Royals preferred conditions and in my eyes not what DDS is at his best on…33/1 for me is a cracking each way price for a horse with a solid looking profile even if he might find one or two too good…I’d also throw in there that the Alan King stable has been in real poor form lately so if they come out of that bad spell for the festival he could improve again…
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