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Why on earth would anyone want to elimininate a horse because it’s a 3 year old
Ideally since 1976 you want a 3 year old won 7 times, the name of the horse should start with the letter C 4 winners, be trained by Ian Balding 3 winners,start at 10/1 4 winners and you should also bring Willie Carson 3 winners out of retirement
You can do anything you want with trends.
You could argue you should only use recent trends but where do you draw the line.But then again no horse ever did what Kauto did in the Gold Cup or Master Minded in the QMCC and try telling Alan King Triumph Hurdle winners don’t win teh Champion Hurdle.
Trends don’t mean **** and if you are going to eliminate every 3 year old in the race just like that then gawd help you.
Anyway it’s only 10 years ago since a 3 year old won
The fav is a 3 year old and both Mark Jonston and John Dulop who have won the the race in the past with 3 year olds have 3 year olds entered among the favourites.
What a weird way to try and find a winner.
3 year olds hardly even get placed in this race; it is a stamina sapping event [even for the people trying to find the winner], and I’d assume that, being a handicap there is no allowance made for a horses age. Like I said, it probably will be the year that a 3 year old favourite wins! It will just be interesting to see what happens…..you have to start somewhere when you’ve got a race with over 100 horses entered.Stats from previous years; horses that did well in previous years and, my personal favourite, horses that will either finish tailed off, or first. Don’t understand why Sereth is 40/1 when it looks as if he should be 100/1 plus.This is the first year that I’ve tried to understand these flat handicaps and it’s totally fascinating. And it’ll make to race so much more interesting. Seems to be money coming in for Bulwark, who ticks a lot of boxes. Just wish I had a crystal ball and could see which horses are intended runners.But by then the prices will have come in.
What if a trainer had a 50% strike rate in the last 10 years with horses of ages other than 3 year olds ?
One of the horses I fancied is no longer down to run; Gala Evening. Have had small bets on Blue Bajan [asked someone who had been speaking to the trainer; he said the race wasn’t mentioned and when I said how much weight the horse would have tended to think that it would not run]. However, my Jumping Prospects book says that Blue Bajan wasn’t quite right last season after Christmas, so should be a better horse now. Also had Sereth, Dirar, Callisto Moon and Tilt, Waiting to see if Al Eile is still in on Thursday, and Bulwark has never had so little weight on his back, so 40/1 is very tempting! So theres half the field I’ve backed already! Of the younger horses I do think Yes Mr President is good for a place, but his price is no good for the small amounts I put on. And Nanton is still in, which would be the best result ever….
I’d suggest anyone not already on should wait until final decs now. Bookies currently betting to nearly 200% and only 12 or so horses are likely to come out, none of whom are near the head of the market
Regarding 3-y-os, statistically they have a big advantage in all-aged staying handicaps in the autumn, and I’d rather use that as a guide to how well they are likely to perform rather than just use this as a one-off race.
Looking at jockey bookings so far the only claimer is on Tilt [5lb]. Still reckon he could run a good race if he had a good draw and was in the right mood
. Will probably back anything that David Pipe enters [hope he doesn’t run all three]. And Fallon has been booked for Fair Along.
my Jumping Prospects book says that Blue Bajan wasn’t quite right last season after Christmas
Yeah, I eventually worked that one out for myself, when they talked about using the Winter Derby at Lingfield as a prep race for the Champion Hdle, but didn’t turn up.
This is dreadful placement of Blue Bajan by Turnell. Hasn’t got a chance of proving good enough off his current rating and wouldn’t stay the trip in the proverbial horsebox either.
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This is dreadful placement of Blue Bajan by Turnell. Hasn’t got a chance of proving good enough off his current rating and wouldn’t stay the trip in the proverbial horsebox either.
Similar thoughts to mine DJ, and you have to wonder why he’s in there?
Maybe connections know something we don’t, but all his presence will do is ensure the weights are skewed to the point where decent horses might not be matched with the more capable jockeys.As long as he doesnt get drawn real bad ill be going for
Darley sun
I read all the stats about 3 year olds but this one is too good to be true incredbully well weighted and 2nd in a group 2 last time out.
I’d be amazed if Blue Bajan actually runs on Saturday with that weight but I’m certainly going to keep my eye on him this year because there’s a big race to be won with him somewhere. I’ve got good/soft ?? next to Aim to Prosper so assume I got the idea he needed a bit of cut in the ground.My notes are littered with question marks; the meaning of which escapes me. Perhaps I should have a note asking myself why I am obsessively looking at flat handicaps when I could be doing something more meaningful with my life? [makes note; what life??…]
Have been reading all your posts for sometime, here is my roll of the dice.
Have done Aaim to prosper 200/1 betfair win market, for the reasons outlined earlier, good analysis of his chances, but don’t know if he will run. I am assuming he prefers good ground when upped in trip, assumption based on the staying on fourth behind red merlin on fast ground 1m 4f and behind sweetheart at goodwood on good/soft (official ground description was good, but anyone who watched the race will know it was good to soft)Have done Alanbrooke at 35/1 betfair, his last run in the trial was a very fast time. The 1st and alanbrooke miles clear of exposed older horses, which gives me confidence that he will beat the older horses. Still a progressive stayer which along with the better ground will see him overturn form with yes mr president and nemo spirit and is getting 11lbs from darley sun from their ascot race, which i am hoping will be enough to reverse form. good ground perfect.
Will be backing fair along in running, depending on how prominent he is in the race, or how far back he is held up in relation to the overall pace of the race. 2007 123 leg spinner, carraciola won 08, fair along win 09?
good luck whatever you pick, what life? an entertaining and challenging life. I love it when a plan comes together and you actually find the winner.
As someone who has always prefered NH racing I can’t believe how interesting these flat handicaps are, and it’s great to read everyones differing opinions. Most of the horses I’ve backed haven’t got jockeys booked yet, so I bet they don’t even run. I read that no horse has won the race first time out, which is a minus for Fair Along. I keep reading all the stats and then finding myself looking at horses like Dirar and Sereth.If someone put me on the spot and asked me to pick just one horse I think my head would spin round and explode, so it’s a good job I don’t take it too seriously.If he had a good draw it would probably be Al Eile, but, then again…..
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