Cavbet

[Cav]

Thanks. Yesterdays bet shows the value in sometimes backing established chase form over a well connected talking horse with fancy connections, who had never jumped a fence in public in his life.

09/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
13:55 Austrian School 5/2 – Won 100/30
14:05 Lamb Chop 11/8
15:10 Marchingontogether 7/4
16:05 George William 1/1 – Won 11/8

[Cav]

10/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
14:20 Rita’s Man 11/10 – Won 4/5
14:55 Indomeneo 15/8 – Won 5/2

[Cav]

Update
From start on 30/09/17
Wins – 15
Bets – 30
Strike Rate – 50%
Level Stake Profit +24.26 points (inc Rule 4 deductions)
Return on Investment 80.88%

[Cav]

11/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
14:40 Chitu 4/5 – Won 5/4
16:35 Tempestatefloresco 8/13 – Won 4/9

[LostSoldier3]

Some interesting picks here Cav, well done so far. I always liked reading your posts on the main forum so I’m enjoying the chance to see how you bet too. You’ve won with a few so far that I was dead against at the prices (Aqua Dude and Rita’s Man for example) so I feel like I should be tapping into the way you think!

Talk me through the way you’re looking at some of these from a value perspective. Chitu for example – I priced up that race myself and went to Oddschecker wanting to bet him (thought the wallahs might put the Skelton horse in clear fav and I might get some 11/10 or 5/4 about Chitu)…but I feel like there’s no value in 4/5. Is he more of an 8/13 poke in your mind or are you just willing to get on at any price within reason?

[Cav]

Thanks for the input LS3. Will put a reply when I get a chance.

12/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
14:00 Soldiers Minute 6/4 – NR
16:20 Wotzizname 10/11
16:30 One Forty Seven 100/30 – NR

[Cav]

LS3, I’m always looking at horses near the top of the market in non handicap races. Generally I like those races to be as noncompetitive as possible, races that can be narrowed down to two or three genuine contenders as quickly as possible.

I suppose unlike many, I’m happy to look at the RP forecast price before I look any further into the race, and rather than assign my own price, I’m looking to lop a tick or two or three on or off the RP price as I go down through my shortlist.

The Chitu race is a good example of this. The race was easily reduced to two genuine contenders, as it contained three sub 100 exposed and regressive hurdlers, a 110 horse who looked exposed, which left me with two genuine contenders. Paddy Power had Chitu in at 4/5 and Gibson Park at evens.

With the bottom four in the market taking about 5% of my book, I’m essentially down to a match race and looking at price proportionality between the front two.

My positives for Chitu
On all known public chase form, the best the horse in the race.
Consistent type
Previously noted as a strong traveler in his races
Suited by trip and going
Weight to carry (double penalty) over-factored by the media imo
Claiming jockey clearly has a good relationship with the horse.
Trainer sending him over from Ireland, experienced in this type of raid, horse used to running in England

My negatives for Gibson Park
No known public chasing form
Fancy connections, so price susceptible to hype not established form
Horse owned by a summer jumping club and will be not running after 31st October, and given entries at two courses within an hours drive of stable, suggested this was a last hurrah for the year as much as anything else
Horse noted as a weak finisher in prior form comments, not what you want at Towcester
Horse’s sire an established flat sire, so possible stamina limitations, again not what you want at Towcester
Relatively light weight to carry overstated by racing media imo.

Considering all of that, price proportionality between the 4/5 Chitu and evens Gibson Park was too small and I was happy to have a bet on Chitu at 4/5. Gibson Park was no more than a 7/4-2/1 type of price in my book.

Don’t need to tell you strike rate and roi are well above what they should be at the moment, the rainy days will come again.

[LostSoldier3]

Fair play Cav. I do think the ability to find good bets at shorter than 6/4 is the mark of a very smart punter. Historically my ROI has been far better at 5/1+ so this is something I’m looking to improve. I like the Ben Franklin approach you’ve got – you certainly make a good case for it being 2/5!

I ended up betting Chitu myself on the machine before the off – drifted to such a big price that even I couldn’t nit it out any longer!

[Cav]

Thanks LS3. I was listening to Harry Findlay opine recently that short odds betting on the racing is gone as a punting medium, I wouldn’t agree with him at all, particularly in the National Hunt sphere, where a decent number of races can essentially be reduced to a match.

Nice cards at Newmarket the next couple of days, looking forward to it.

13/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
13:50 Sound and Silence 9/4
14:25 Dark Rose Angel 11/2
15:00 Limato 11/8 – Won 6/4
15:35 Happily 13/8 – NR
17:20 Architecture 13/8

[Cav]

14/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
14:25 Purser 5/2
14:40 Shabaaby 10/11
15:00 Expert Eye 1/2
15:05 Alcala 4/1

[greenasgrass]

I like that Alcala bet, he is a very nice horse.

[Cav]

15/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
14:35 Lady Dancealot 13/8 – Won 11/8
14:50 Tommy Rapper 7/2

[Cav]

16/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
13:50 Time Trail 5/2 – NR* Refused to leave stalls, PP refunded stake as free bet.
15:10 Dubka 4/1
15:20 Ornate 13/8

[Cav]

17/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
14:30 Sans Souci Bay 4/6 – Won 6/4

[Cav]

Sans Souci Bay drifted to a mad price today. Couldn’t believe the market moves for Many Dreams, Oakley Pride and Princess Way. Yaks the lot of ’em.

18/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
14:10 Amadeus Rox 7/2
15:15 Barton Knoll 3/1 – Won 5/2

[Cav]

19/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
14:30 George 11/4
14:45 Count Meribel 7/4 – Won 13/8
15:45 Slanelough 7/4 – Won 3/1

[Cav]

20/10/17
Paddy Power all BOG – 1pt Win Single
14:00 One For June 2/1 – Won 11/4

[Author]

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