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Well done Steve
Laughing all the way to the bank with that tasty 33/1 on Taghrooda.I changed my mind on her at last minute and went Marvellous Ihtimal last night, but when I saw her on Ch.4 in the paddock I had to back her. What a Stallion Sea the Stars is turning out to be
Great win for the Hills family very emotional Richard Hills with Rishi and very well handled interviews all round today, especially liked the Clare Balding and Lady Cecil interview before the race.
Brilliant tipping Steve.
Jac
xShe certainly left them all in her
slipstream
today.
Thanks very much Jac. I was thinking back to the Sandown handicap where Taghrooda was entered but they pulled her out because of the soft ground. She was top weight that day and running off a mark of 89. The ATR betting forecast had her about 4th in the betting at odds of 13/2. I wonder what her odds would be now off that same mark?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Saturday’s main bet Stomachion finished 2nd. Some were saying Ryan Moore came too late but he stayed on the inside and had a charmed run really, his horse was unable to match the kick of the winner.
Fascinating Rock ran OK, coming out best of the Derrinstown runners as I had expected, simply not in the same league as the ones who filled the places. I don’t know what happened to Geoffrey Chaucer, something was amiss with him.
After Taghrooda’s success it was back to earth in the Derby with Kingston Hill’s place costing me at 5/1. The only respite was win lays on the same horse and True Story, who I thought owed his position in the market to a damn good bit of blarney from Keiren Fallon. Hell, I was nearly backing the thing myself after listening to him wax on about yet another Godolphin horse who exploded into action on seasonal debut but then didn’t go on next time.
With Taghrooda’s win at what looked a good 15/8 at the time and Western Hymn’s failure the thread sits at +6.75
There are bets on Night Of Thunder for the St James Palace, Tac Du Boistron in the Gold Cup and Adaay in the Coventry to come at Royal Ascot. There is also Orchestra for the St Leger but I was a bit disappointed with him and he needs to bounce back from a modest effort that saw John Gosden’s Romsdal turn the form right round from Chester.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The usual Monday night fare at Windsor and a chance to take on a skinny looking Online Alexander in the 8.50 Race.
The Grey Gatsby won the French Derby giving Kevin Ryan his first classic success but these events often lead to punters thinking the trainer can walk on water and sometimes this results in their horses going off a bit shorter than they really should. 2/1 is plenty short enough for me in a handicap where others are open to improvement.
Royal Birth started off in a York maiden that threw up five future winners. He was then a well beaten second when favourite at Wolverhampton but was miles ahead of the third that day. He made no mistake when a shade of odds on at Wolverhampton on Boxing Day winning by six lengths. With improvement possibly coming for time and the return to turf, this Exceed and Excel colt may be on a decent mark and Oisin Murphy takes a handy 3lbs off his back. At 9/2 he’s a realistic alternative to the favourite and worth 3pts on.
8.50 Windsor Royal Birth 3pts 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Well more of an abortion than a birth there slowly away and with the horse never giving himself a chance pulling hard. Conditions had deteriorated as well. Original fav Online Alexander drifted right out to 5/1 and the money talked for Richard Hughes’s mount.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking ahead to next week and the Kings Stand we see some of the usual suspects such as Shea Shea, Sole Power and Maarek looking to add further glory to their names. The impressive last time winner Hot Streak looks to cement himself into the top of the sprinting ranks after being called the best his trainer has had. I’d probably be with the latter horse if there is cut in the ground while Sole Power would surely be a strong contender if the ground goes the other way.
Looking into the bigger prices two catch my eye. Guerre for Aiden O’ Brien is 25/1 and he made a good seasonal debut when beating Maarek. I fancied the latter horse on that occasion but he didn’t have the toe to get to the lightly raced War Front colt. The other horse is my old pal Moviesta who gave me a good turn last year but has run a couple of stinkers. The ground went right against him last time and I think he clearly needs 5f and fast ground. His seasonal re-appearance was encouraging and something was clearly amiss in the next race. This is last chance saloon for him but at 25/1 I’ll give him one more go.
Several of these sprinters are entered in both the Kings Stand and The Diamond Jubilee and it is a bit of a minefield predicting which race they will take in, or even if they will run in both. For that reason I’m picking a couple of huge priced ones to low stakes. Guerre is actually entered in The Diamond Jubilee at the moment so it is a puzzle why he is actually shorter for the Kings Stand. If he can repeat his defeat of Maarek he would surely be somewhere in the realms of having a chance. The horse actually won when the stable was having a very quiet spell and if he improves then you never know. He is somewhat unusual in not being an O’Brien horse tried over further and then reverting to try sprint trips. At 33/1 he’s one to dream about for Ascot.
Kings Stand Moviesta 1pt 25/1
Diamond Jubilee Guerre 1pt 33/1
Shine on you crazy Diamonds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking into the bigger prices two catch my eye. Guerre for Aiden O’ Brien is 25/1 and he made a good seasonal debut when beating Maarek. I fancied the latter horse on that occasion but he didn’t have the toe to get to the lightly raced War Front colt. The other horse is my old pal Moviesta who gave me a good turn last year but has run a couple of stinkers. The ground went right against him last time and I think he clearly needs 5f and fast ground. His seasonal re-appearance was encouraging and something was clearly amiss in the next race. This is last chance saloon for him but at 25/1 I’ll give him one more go.
Several of these sprinters are entered in both the Kings Stand and The Diamond Jubilee and it is a bit of a minefield predicting which race they will take in, or even if they will run in both. For that reason I’m picking a couple of huge priced ones to low stakes. Guerre is actually entered in The Diamond Jubilee at the moment so it is a puzzle why he is actually shorter for the Kings Stand. If he can repeat his defeat of Maarek he would surely be somewhere in the realms of having a chance. The horse actually won when the stable was having a very quiet spell and if he improves then you never know. He is somewhat unusual in not being an O’Brien horse tried over further and then reverting to try sprint trips. At 33/1 he’s one to dream about for Ascot.
Kings Stand Moviesta 1pt 25/1
Diamond Jubilee Guerre 1pt 33/1
Shine on you crazy Diamonds.
I think the reason Guerre is shorter for the Kings Stand is that the stable also have Due Diligence who looks likely for the Diamond Jubilee. He has been very impressive this season and has been nibbled at for Ascot in recent days so I presume he’ll race on the Saturday.
Lady Cecil has a few fancied ones at Haydock today and I am going to oppose one of them in the opener.
Button Down is a warm favourite at around evens and with less years on the clock than some of the runners has obvious scope to step up after a second place last time. Richard Hughes is a good sign in the saddle but they have stuck a tongue tie on, which is obviously a question mark. The form of her last run hasn’t worked out well, with one placed and four unplaced in five starts since. With the ground soft today it could be a bit of a slog and I am taking a shot with Alan King’s Montbazon, who has been hurdling and has potential on the flat, even though he is seven years old.
Sometimes these hurdlers are underestimated on the flat but Alan King has been doing well with this type transferring to the level.
I am suggesting 2pts at 9/2 against the skinny, sexier favourite.
2.10 Haydock Montbazon 2pts 9/2 (Stan James)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lady Cecil has a few fancied ones at Haydock today and I am going to oppose one of them in the opener.
Button Down is a warm favourite at around evens and with less years on the clock than some of the runners has obvious scope to step up after a second place last time. Richard Hughes is a good sign in the saddle but they have stuck a tongue tie on, which is obviously a question mark. The form of her last run hasn’t worked out well, with one placed and four unplaced in five starts since. With the ground soft today it could be a bit of a slog and I am taking a shot with Alan King’s Montbazon, who has been hurdling and has potential on the flat, even though he is seven years old.
Sometimes these hurdlers are underestimated on the flat but Alan King has been doing well with this type transferring to the level.
I am suggesting 2pts at 9/2 against the skinny, sexier favourite.
2.10 Haydock Montbazon 2pts 9/2 (Stan James)
No joy but the bad favourite was identified and duly defeated.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Some decent looking prospects for John Gosden at Newbury tomorrow but there will probably be little value there.
A chance is taken in opposing Taghrooda’s old sparring partner Jordan Princess in the 3.25 Race. Luca Cumani’s filly finished second to the Oaks winner in the Pretty Polly race that famously stank the place out in terms of future form and helped put the Epsom runaway winner out to an amazing 5/1 after trading at nearly a quarter of those odds at one stage in the lead up to the race.
Jordan Princess was all at sea in soft ground next time, finishing stone last to Marsh Daisy in the Height Of Fashion Stakes. Her supporters are obviously banking that she will bounce back on the faster ground tomorrow but at 3/1 she is looking skinny in a tricky race where several are trying to regain the winning thread and where the top rated horse, Eastern Belle, is still a maiden after four starts for John Gosden.
A few fillies seem to have been tipped here but my eye went to the William Haggas trained Queen Of Ice, who initially attracted support in the Musidora but then slipped back out a bit in the betting. The Musidora was run on soft ground and this filly has not run on decent turf going yet, so could improve for it. This is a drop in class from group 3 to listed for the Selkirk filly and Richard Hughes looks an encouraging booking.
3.25 Newbury Thursday Queen Of Ice 2pts 13/2
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A horse I have been waiting to see makes his debut at Leopardstown tonight. He was due out last week but the going ended up too soft and he was withdrawn.
US Navy Seal is a strange handle for a racehorse and being by War Front he might be labelled as potentially a short term precocious project but looking at his entries I got the opinion that he may be worth a long term look. There was a tiny nibble for him in the 2000 G betting a couple of weeks ago and should he making a winning debut the odds will surely collapse. I’ll risk an early point on him for Newmarket in an attempt to get in early.
2000 Guineas 2015 US Navy Seal 1pt 33/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A very disappointing start to his career for US Navy Seal. All the signs were positive with him being backed for the Guineas just before the race and he was backed for the race itself. They seemed keen to get on with it and Joseph had him positioned to kick off the front but he went from travelling well enough to struggling within a couple of strides and faded markedly. Perhaps he needed the race but this was poor from a horse who cost $800,000 and who was clearly expected to do much better.
Earlier on the card there was a classic case of "all the money on one of the stable’s runners and the unfancied one wins" as Gallileo filly Curlylocks was backed from a morning 4/1 in to evens favourite for the Wachman stable. She never travelled like a winner to my eyes and plugged on for third as her stable mate and fellow daughter of Gallileo, Queen Nefertiti, went off 20/1 and hosed in impressively. The winner looked a nice type and the only note of caution I would raise is that her full brother Illinois made a good impression on his debut for Aiden O’Brien last July but was not seen since.
Moving on to future events I have decided that Kingston Hill is worth a bet for the St Leger. With doubts about Australia on the going front it might be that a September day at Donny won’t be his cup of tea. We know Kingston Hill has handled going and track before and he seemed to get the trip OK at Epsom. The stamina may be a question mark but there are a few in the betting who might not turn up and some with far bigger stamina concerns than Kingston Hill. A little bit of class may go a long way by the time the field is actually finalised and 10/1 with Paddy Power looks too big to me.
St Leger Kingston Hill 5pts win 10/1 (Paddy Power)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The 4.20 at Sandown sees a very well bred horse at the foot of the handicap. Sea Here is by Sea The Stars out of Oaks winner Look Here and clearly has a mountain to climb to be mentioned in the same breath as his parents.
A first venture into handicap company may help, along with the extra couple of furlongs and the passage of time. a rating of 73 so far is modest given his pedigree and proves that a dream pairing eg Gallileo and Ouija Board (Australia) does not often chuck out a star.
A very open contest with ifs and buts aplenty but I’ll stick 2pts on at 6/1.
4.20 Sandown Sea Here 2pts 6/1 (Corals)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Another poor effort from a Ralph Beckett trained selection and I’m giving him a wide berth now.
My old favourite dodgepot Fury was tipped on ATR today and I nearly fainted when I saw that. No wins in over two years now, he’s a standing dish to oppose. Never landed a blow again today and he continues to frustrate.
John Gosden has been in better form since Taghrooda did the business and I’ll have a different style approach on two of his today.
I thought Fencing could have done better with a more inspired ride last time and I think he has a decent shout today. Betimes cut no ice in the 1000G but dropped in grade and trip I’ll give her a shout at 11/1.
3.15 York Fencing 2pts 9/2
3.50 York Betimes 1pt 11/1
1pt e/w double
Well that old dodgepot Fencing does it again. The money came for him, he travelled well, then fell back before coming again without looking like winning. He must be a bollock hair away from the Timeform squiggle now.
Betimes didn’t look like a sprinter and she will be very hard to place now. One to avoid for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hot Streak is a rare sprinter with scope in the Kings Stand tomorrow. He showed a great burst last time before getting a bit lonely in front and allowing Pearl Secret to close the gap.
The ground is currently in his favour and against the likes of Sole Power. If it doesn’t dry out too much overnight I think Hot Streak should win this and he’s a confident selection for me at 4/1.
Maximum bet and 1st day nap.
3.45 Ascot Tuesday Hot Streak 10pts 4/1 (widely available)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Two horses tied in on form vying for favouritism in two Ascot races tomorrow and a cheeky wee double is tried.
3.05 Ascot Adaay 2pts 5/1
5.35 Ascot Mind Of Madness 2pts 5/1
2pts Double the pair
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hot Streak is a rare sprinter with scope in the Kings Stand tomorrow. He showed a great burst last time before getting a bit lonely in front and allowing Pearl Secret to close the gap.
The ground is currently in his favour and against the likes of Sole Power. If it doesn’t dry out too much overnight I think Hot Streak should win this and he’s a confident selection for me at 4/1.
Maximum bet and 1st day nap.
3.45 Ascot Tuesday Hot Streak 10pts 4/1 (widely available)
You-re a braver man than me Stevie having a maximum bet in what looks a wide-open race. I know you fancied Guerre last week but was that for the Diamond Jubilee? I think he is better over this 5 furlongs and should go well but to be honest any one of several could win this imo. Good luck though!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Joni, I believe the sprinting division is ripe for a new star. I was most impressed by Hot Streak last time out and Kevin Ryan reckons he’s the best horse he’s trained.
Hot Streak has run 4 times at 5f and won 3, he ran well in third behind Sole Power on his seasonal debut on the other occasion. He’s unexposed and despite concerns about his age in some camps, I am not worried, because he beat older sprinters last time out.
When I looked at Guerre last week on ATR he was entered up in the Diamond Jubilee but not the King’s Stand. I thought they might swerve the 5f race as it looked a bit classier. The cat is out of the bag with the odds now though and I won’t have a saver on him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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