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I’ll get this thread tidied up and up to date figures shortly.
Obviously Taghrooda is a bigger price now that the form has bombed and a bigger field than anticipated has assembled. Another spanner was thrown into the works via the Irish 1000G winner but that’s racing.
Two to go with on the supporting card for me are:-
Thistle Bird, who won the same race last year and that is a big positive being effective at Epsom. The Charlton stable are not red hot and this filly has thrown in the odd disappointment but she would win this if near her best and 3/1 is OK odds for me. Just The Judge tailed off after her Irish Guineas win last season and was disappointing on her re-appearance this year. The stable haven’t been going great guns and regular readers will know that Charlie Hills doesn’t get Christmas cards from me (nor I from him). There are other possibilities in Odeliz and Mango Diva but I like horses for courses when it’s somewhere quirky like Epsom so 4pts on Thistle Bird.
Later on the ex Coventry potential "dodgepot" Parbold (perhaps Parboiled in terms of his finishing power) makes a quick reappearance after putting Nathan Hughes out on the street via the lost rent money. Normally you would be wary of following these types over the financial cliff but for a change the dodgepot is not the hotpot in the betting. David O’Meara, who is in good form, saddles That Is The Spirit and this impressive looking handicap winner is a shade of odds on for this Listed race. He’s two for two and on the upgrade but stepping up in class he is a bit skinny in the betting for me. The ground could dry out more and he’s won on the soft both times. This is also a good bit smaller field tomorrow. Parbold on the other hand steps back up to 7f and sports a hood for the first time tomorrow. Add in Ryan Moore on board for the first time and the quirky location of Epsom and you have enough encouragement to go with 3/1 and take a chance that the fav Isn’t the automatic "good thing" some are saying he is. 4pts on Parbold as well.
1.35 Epsom Thistle Bird 4pts 3/1 (Lads)
4.45 Epsom Parbold 4pts 3/1
Best of luck!
Bit surprised you haven’t put Abseil up as a lay. Disappointing last time against a horse who subsequently disappointed and up against a large field of experienced handicappers on a difficult track. He might be too good for them but bookmakers love this sort of horse and I wouldn’t be rushing to take 4/1 let alone 5/2.
Thanks for the kind wishes. There doesn’t seem much confidence behind Taghrooda and Gregorian did little to boost the confidence, even though I didn’t fancy him today. I’ll kick myself a bit if Tarfasha wins, as I mentioned her on The Horses Mouth’s thread after she finished 3rd to My Titania, having looked like 7f was too short for her. I just hope they go a decent clip and some of the soft ground horses will surely be keen to avoid a crawl on the faster going.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Bit surprised you haven’t put Abseil up as a lay. Disappointing last time against a horse who subsequently disappointed and up against a large field of experienced handicappers on a difficult track. He might be too good for them but bookmakers love this sort of horse and I wouldn’t be rushing to take 4/1 let alone 5/2.
I decided to leave this race alone, Abseil is short enough for Royal Ascot already and I decided the leave the least exposed horse alone.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Fan-bloody-tastic winner Taghrooda.
Great tipping Steve.Firty free t’ wun!
I took 4/1 and 3/1 ante-post.
SP 5/1.
Value Is EverythingThanks everybody, I nearly had 3/3 today but I wasn’t impressed with Ryan Moore on Parbold. It is arguable whether he actually got trapped in a five runner affair but when you would have won in another stride you have to question the quality of the ride.
Over the moon with Taghrooda and it proves that money does not always talk, as she was pretty friendless all week.
I topped up at 15/8 Ginger, so don’t feel bad about taking 4/1 and 3/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done Steve
Laughing all the way to the bank with that tasty 33/1 on Taghrooda.I changed my mind on her at last minute and went Marvellous Ihtimal last night, but when I saw her on Ch.4 in the paddock I had to back her. What a Stallion Sea the Stars is turning out to be
Great win for the Hills family very emotional Richard Hills with Rishi and very well handled interviews all round today, especially liked the Clare Balding and Lady Cecil interview before the race.
Brilliant tipping Steve.
Jac
xShe certainly left them all in her
slipstream
today.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...http://static5.cartoonnetworkasia.com/contest/2011/07_prudential/case_study/images/cha-ching-logo.png
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Well done Steve
I had a little chuckle thinking of the prices you got after she won, from 33/1 to 15/8, and they all count!
Well done Steve i hope rain stays away tomorrow i just put my bets up for tomorrow any thoughts on races tomorrow apart from derby.
Wonderful Stevie!! Well done mate!! Never in doubt!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Thanks again everyone.
With the rain we have had it will make life a bit tougher for Australia today and it’s not often that horses labelled "Best ever" are nearly 2/1 after trading at odds on earlier in the build up to a classic.
True Story is another who probably has less chance after the downpour and perhaps too much has been made of The Grey Gatsby winning a ropey looking French Derby where the favourite got a shockingly poor ride from his jockey.
Kingston Hill has decent Guineas form coming into the race and will appreciate the ease in the surface but I just feel he might not stay this extra half mile.
Opinions vary on who will come out best of the three who filled the places in The Derrinstown where Ebanoran lost the race in the stewards room. My feeling is that Fascinating Rock finished the race best of the three after a less than intrepid ride from Pat Smullen. Of the three I think the extra couple of furlongs will suit Dermot Weld’s colt best and the stable had a very respectable show from Tarfasha in the Oaks yesterday.
Geoffrey Chaucer has been weak in the betting the past few days and is almost out to the same odds as stable companion Orchestra who little has been said about after Joseph and Ryan were jocked up on the seeming stable 1-2. I have a feeling The St Leger may be his best chance of a classic win and he’s 16/1 for that race.
Western Hymn is my long term punt but he is slightly awkward looking and although he runs as if cut in the ground will suit his action, the stable have said he couldn’t use his turn of foot in the soft at Sandown. I’ll be happy if he can place.
All things considered I’m going for Fascinating Rock, who is said to show zero at home. However, even if lucky to get the race last time, I thought he would have prevailed with a more positive ride and it looks like the extra distance will suit him.
2pts Fascinating Rock is the recommendation.
Later on the card Michael Stoute’s Stomachion is a decent enough price at 9/2. He’s won three off his last 4 and the time he didn’t Ryan Moore wasn’t on board. He’s back in the saddle today and William Haggas’s horse, Dare To Achieve is helping to make the market for Stoutie’s horse.
4pts win is the suggestion.
In The Dash I am having a small punt on Swan Song, who came out of the stalls with the hood on last time up. I had considered stable mate New FForest but it will be a big ask on seasonal debut for her. From stall 15 I think Swan Song should be thereabouts today and a 1pt at 14/1 for a bit of fun won’t bust the bank.
Longer term I am suggesting 3pts points in the St Leger on Orchestra, who could enhance his claims without winning today and if he does pop up, he will surely be a warm favourite for the race.
4.00 Epsom Fascinating Rock 2pts 14/1
4.50 Epsom Stomachion 4pts 9/2
3.15 Epsom Swan Song 1pt 14/1
St Leger Orchestra 3pts 16/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’d give Fascinating Rock a big chance Steve but I’m not convinced he’ll relish the trip which is the main doubt in my mind. He has showed plenty of speed this year – I don’t think he’d have any problem competing in big races over a mile – and 10f could prove to be his optimum trip. The same could be said of Australia who showed lots of pace in the Guineas. Of course a horse being at their best over 10f doesn’t mean they can’t win a Derby, as seen in recent years with the likes of Sea The Stars and New Approach. Best of luck, I’m on Geoffrey Chaucer e/w and Kingfisher to place, drift on Geoff is worrying though!
I’d give Fascinating Rock a big chance Steve but I’m not convinced he’ll relish the trip which is the main doubt in my mind. He has showed plenty of speed this year – I don’t think he’d have any problem competing in big races over a mile – and 10f could prove to be his optimum trip. The same could be said of Australia who showed lots of pace in the Guineas. Of course a horse being at their best over 10f doesn’t mean they can’t win a Derby, as seen in recent years with the likes of Sea The Stars and New Approach. Best of luck, I’m on Geoffrey Chaucer e/w and Kingfisher to place, drift on Geoff is worrying though!
The trip is a question mark but he’s been getting 10f on really soft ground and the old saying is that if you think you’ve got the stamina for the Derby then you probably have too much. I’m hoping he can be relaxed in a good position and come through a bit sooner than he did last time.
Good luck with Geoffrey Chowser
, I suppose 25/1 was big in retrospect but when I saw him at 6/1 I was having palpitations. He’s probably just regressing to his actual odds after being too short.Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done Steve i hope rain stays away tomorrow i just put my bets up for tomorrow any thoughts on races tomorrow apart from derby.
Cheers Darren, my main hope today is Stomachion in the 4.50 race. Stoute had a good winner in Abseil yesterday and this horse also looks a potential improver. 9/2 was fair enough to me and I’m hoping for a good show.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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