- This topic has 275 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
A pretty poor Sunday’s racing but one horse catches the eye.
Indelible Ink is a rare runner for Michael Stoute at Redcar and he is the sole runner for the trainer and only ride for the jockey on the card.
This gelding was 6th on his debut and faces some promising potential improvers from other stables. Looking through the form though there are some races at Ayr and Hamilton amongst the data and a serious lack of future winners emerging. By comparison Indelible Ink’s 6th was at Newmarket and the race has had three future winners, including the horse who was behind Indelible Ink in seventh. That looks the best form here and Stoute’s horse was 16/1 last time, so presumably thought to need the experience. It is no secret that the stable runners usually improve and I expect him to come forward and enjoy the extra furlong today. He’s only 2/1 but I can’t get enthused about the others and it’s a long old trip for one runner to a little visited course for this team.
2.10 Redcar Indelible Ink 4pts 2/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Run out of it by the Fahey horse who outclassed the Stoute runner physically. Spring Offensive should be worth following on today’s evidence.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
EAGLE TOP 8/1 and HORSTED KEYNES 8/1 only bets so far for weekend how about you mate
EAGLE TOP 8/1 and HORSTED KEYNES 8/1 only bets so far for weekend how about you mate
Hi Darren, I’ve just backed Horsted Keynes at 10/1. He went in from 12/1 to 10/1 then 8/1 before going back to 10/1 again. Jim Crowley is booked to ride and a decent draw will probably see him go off single figures for sure. Ladbrokes only go 6/1 and it looks like they want to avoid him.
I backed Telescope when he was 4/1 and covered half that bet on Taghrooda at 5/1. Eagle Top won well last time but I wasn’t sure they would supplement him and now he’s too short, plus I have played my cards already on the race. They are saying he might not run if the ground is really quick, so I hope you get a run OK.
I might have a pop at Discussiontofollow in the Skybet Dash, as think he’s a sprinter on the up.
All the best and be lucky!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It is no secret I thought Horsted Keynes should have won at Royal Ascot. People have argued that Jamie Spencer gave him the best ride possible and that if he had sat closer to the pace the horse would have finished further down the field.
I have my opinion and the horse is lightly raced, surely unexposed and seems a 7f specialist. Granted decent ground and a workable draw he must go close and 10/1 looks the best we will get now.
Ladbrokes only go 6/1 for Roger Varian’s horse and with Jim Crowley in the saddle we can’t blame Jamie Spencer this time.
Ascot Saturday Horsted Keynes 4pts 10/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Running a bit behind schedule today. I have backed Marsali at 7/2 for tonight’s 6.25 Leopardstown but the price is gone so for this thread she is tipped at 3/1.
She won a maiden that has had only a small boost from the second going on to fill the same spot behind Aidan O’Brien’s Toogoodtobetrue but the style of her win was deeply impressive. Dermot Weld and Pat Smullen are a deadly combination and this filly went off 12/1 last time, so I am assuming there was deemed to be improvement to come.
Raydara was early fav and has an improving profile but the Weld horse gave me the feeling she could be really good and I’ll stick 4pts on her.
6.25 Leopardstown Marsali 4pts 3/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I can’t fathom what happened with Marsali. It just didn’t look like the same horse who won on her debut. She never travelled like she would win and maybe 7f didn’t suit either. Bitterly disappointed by that effort and it may well have been a weak race she won by the look of her second effort when upped in class.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve what you think of HALL OF FAME was my unraced 2yo to watch from the Bolger yard.And shocked no price for derby as he be a middle distance horse next year.Along with JFK was on 1st page of 2yo summary thread.
Steve what you think of HALL OF FAME was my unraced 2yo to watch from the Bolger yard.And shocked no price for derby as he be a middle distance horse next year.Along with JFK was on 1st page of 2yo summary thread.
He was always in command the other day Darren. We will have to see if John F Kennedy can boost the form but the Bolger horse clearly improved from his first start and can progress again. The stable has had a really quiet spell but is getting among the winners again.
Right now Highland Reel is the horse I have been most impressed with as a potential Derby contender for next year. He made a great step forward from his first start and won by 12 lengths next time. OK, that was a mile and a fair way for 2yos at this time of the season but when a horse wins by that far you usually see nothing else come out of the race. However, Hall Of Fame won since and the 4th horse has come out an won also. Hall Of Fame has a lot of ground to make up with O’Brien’s colt and that is probably why he is not in the Derby betting yet Darren.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I fancied Pallasator for The Ebor last season but he ended up being tried over further in the Cesarewitch instead. Dropped back in trip on his seasonal debut he ran a great race behind De Rigeuer in The Old Newton Cup at Haydock. With that run behind him he surely has every chance of going one better over the same trip at Ascot today.
3/1 is the best current price for him and if he wins this he will surely be backed for The Ebor, where he is 12/1 at the moment. A son of Derby winner Motivator and not many miles on the clock for his age he could just about make it to group company with some improvement. Therefore it is a case of backing him for both races.
As mentioned earlier in the thread, Highland Reel looked something above average on his second start when streaking away by 12 lengths over a mile. Despite the huge margin, two horses who were behind have won since. Entered in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, I would hope that he would actually use his proven ability to get a mile and perhaps end up in the Racing Post trophy for his ultimate race of the season and hopefully go into the winter as one of the leading fancies for next year’s Derby. I’ll have a few bob on for Epsom glory, while keeping in mind the stable has loads of well bred horses still to appear and weighing that against the fact that some, eg John F Kennedy, might not hit the lofty heights first time out.
3.05 Ascot Sunday Pallasator 6pts 3/1
The Ebor Pallasator 2pts 12/1
2015 Derby Highland Reel 2pts 25/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Pallasator did the business and paid for his wager in the Ebor. Best price 8/1 for the Ebor now and Mark Prescott confirmed that is the target. As low as 5/1 in places, I’m happy with 12/1 and may pick a saver nearer the time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nothing caught the eye on day 1 at Goodwood and two odds-on shots got turned over.
Day 2 sees Kingman impossible to oppose for me and just a race to watch.
Mark Johnston had a good start to the meeting and his Maid In Rio will be a warm order in the opener tomorrow. Later on he saddles another horse who will be fancied by some and who has been backed into favourite now.
Somewhat has been largely disappointing but raised a few eyebrows when taking several scalps as he finished third in The Eclipse at odds of 100/1. The handicapper has reacted by raising his mark for finishing so close to Mukhadram and that puts him into the Gordon Stakes as the top rated horse now.
I have a few problems recommending the horse as 7/2 fav for tomorrow though. Did he really run his best race by quite a margin in the Eclipse? It was a strange race with several fancied runners held up and caught out when they quickened. I am concerned that he may be overrated on the back of that. He has never won at the trip and hasn’t won for a while now. Everyone knows Johnston’s love affair with Glorious Goodwood but Somewhat looks to have something to prove to me, even if there are question marks about some of the others.
My fancy is Snow Sky who was a little disappointing behind Eagle Top last time. Prior to that he had taken the Lingfield Derby trial from Hartnell, who has boosted the form with his efforts since. Sir Michael Stoute has farmed this race with success in the past and Snow Sky still has some scope about him and 4pts at 4/1 with Lads was the bet for me.
2.30 Goodwood Wed Snow Sky 4pts 4/1 (Lads)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There seems to be money for the Queen’s horse Touchline in the 4.15 at Goodwood today. That fact, and perhaps a couple of Hannon hotpots getting turned over yesterday, has led to Shahah hitting 2/1 in the betting.
I hadn’t planned to bet here but 2/1 looks tempting for an expensive filly who made a promising start when second at Doncaster. It wasn’t a great maiden but she should improve a fair bit and experience could be a valuable asset against unraced horses at a quirky track like Goodwood.
Hundi made a reasonable start when slowly away on her debut and should improve but she was a good way behind Muraaqaba that day and the Johnston filly was a shade disappointing behind Osaila next time, albeit in much stronger company than today’s.
4.15 Good Shahah 4pts 2/1 (Sporting Bet)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nothing caught the eye on day 1 at Goodwood and two odds-on shots got turned over.
Day 2 sees Kingman impossible to oppose for me and just a race to watch.
Mark Johnston had a good start to the meeting and his Maid In Rio will be a warm order in the opener tomorrow. Later on he saddles another horse who will be fancied by some and who has been backed into favourite now.
Somewhat has been largely disappointing but raised a few eyebrows when taking several scalps as he finished third in The Eclipse at odds of 100/1. The handicapper has reacted by raising his mark for finishing so close to Mukhadram and that puts him into the Gordon Stakes as the top rated horse now.
I have a few problems recommending the horse as 7/2 fav for tomorrow though. Did he really run his best race by quite a margin in the Eclipse? It was a strange race with several fancied runners held up and caught out when they quickened. I am concerned that he may be overrated on the back of that. He has never won at the trip and hasn’t won for a while now. Everyone knows Johnston’s love affair with Glorious Goodwood but Somewhat looks to have something to prove to me, even if there are question marks about some of the others.
My fancy is Snow Sky who was a little disappointing behind Eagle Top last time. Prior to that he had taken the Lingfield Derby trial from Hartnell, who has boosted the form with his efforts since. Sir Michael Stoute has farmed this race with success in the past and Snow Sky still has some scope about him and 4pts at 4/1 with Lads was the bet for me.
2.30 Goodwood Wed Snow Sky 4pts 4/1 (Lads)
After being coltish before the start and having to be checked in his run to avoid drifting across Somewhat, I think Snow Sky was value for a bit more than the winning margin.
Windshear finished well and although Somewhat ran well enough I think the idea that he had seven pounds in hand of today’s winner was questionable, although Frankie was keen to tell us "The form book doesn’t lie" A bit like painting by numbers and getting paid for it but good luck to him.
Quite why Observational went off favourite on ground a polar opposite to his last run, was puzzling to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I fancied Pallasator for The Ebor last season but he ended up being tried over further in the Cesarewitch instead. Dropped back in trip on his seasonal debut he ran a great race behind De Rigeuer in The Old Newton Cup at Haydock. With that run behind him he surely has every chance of going one better over the same trip at Ascot today.
3/1 is the best current price for him and if he wins this he will surely be backed for The Ebor, where he is 12/1 at the moment. A son of Derby winner Motivator and not many miles on the clock for his age he could just about make it to group company with some improvement. Therefore it is a case of backing him for both races.
As mentioned earlier in the thread, Highland Reel looked something above average on his second start when streaking away by 12 lengths over a mile. Despite the huge margin, two horses who were behind have won since. Entered in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, I would hope that he would actually use his proven ability to get a mile and perhaps end up in the Racing Post trophy for his ultimate race of the season and hopefully go into the winter as one of the leading fancies for next year’s Derby. I’ll have a few bob on for Epsom glory, while keeping in mind the stable has loads of well bred horses still to appear and weighing that against the fact that some, eg John F Kennedy, might not hit the lofty heights first time out.
3.05 Ascot Sunday Pallasator 6pts 3/1
The Ebor Pallasator 2pts 12/1
2015 Derby Highland Reel 2pts 25/1
Very impressive from Highland Reel today dropped back in trip. Aidan O’Brien mentioned three times after the race that the horse has "so much speed"
Any amount of potential talent in the O’Brien stable but they will need to be good to match this fellow’s potential. Betfred went 14/1 for The Derby after the race but that lasted less than 5 minutes and 12/1 is best price at the moment, with as low as 8/1 with Stan James. Fair chuffed with 25/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There seems to be money for the Queen’s horse Touchline in the 4.15 at Goodwood today. That fact, and perhaps a couple of Hannon hotpots getting turned over yesterday, has led to Shahah hitting 2/1 in the betting.
I hadn’t planned to bet here but 2/1 looks tempting for an expensive filly who made a promising start when second at Doncaster. It wasn’t a great maiden but she should improve a fair bit and experience could be a valuable asset against unraced horses at a quirky track like Goodwood.
Hundi made a reasonable start when slowly away on her debut and should improve but she was a good way behind Muraaqaba that day and the Johnston filly was a shade disappointing behind Osaila next time, albeit in much stronger company than today’s.
4.15 Good Shahah 4pts 2/1 (Sporting Bet)
A bit disappointing by Shahah who was physically smaller than I had anticipated and the Hannon’s haven’t had a great meeting thus far with a few beaten favourites. I don’t think she would have won anyway but Frankie managed to find trouble from a good position as she came under pressure and when switched out he looked weak in the finish once again. His best days are way behind him.
The early money for Touchline dried up and looked totally misplaced.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A strangely subdued looking card at Goodwood today and I can’t get enthused about the favourites in the Yorkshire Cup where Estimate looks short and Brown Panther seems to be repeating last season’s pattern of starting well and then tailing off. Angel Gabriel may be the improver to upset the apple cart and at 11/1 he looks worth a poke.
The Lilly Langtry sees Miss United favourite and top rated but she is rated on a third place in The Gold Cup where she was 40/1 and we have to believe she ran to a career high mark at the age of seven after a lifetime of 28 races between flat and jumps, where her best win on the level came in listed company. She’s not for me at the odds, dropping 6f in trip.
John Gosden throws maiden winner Stella Bellissima into the deep end here and this Sea The Stars filly can only improve for her one run but she has quite a bit of ground to make up and is very skinny in the betting at 5/1, which is due to her trainer being in imperious form this season. It seems hard to believe that an Oaks winner is only half a point shorter in the betting.
Talent won an Oaks that didn’t look very good and she has been fairly disappointing since but she was runner up in The St Leger and ran OK behind Gosden’s 1-2 in the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks last time. This looks an easier opportunity by a fair margin and perhaps Richard Hughes can work the magic first time up since he rode her to victory in the Oaks. I would rather have her at 9/2 than Missunited at 7/4.
Finally, Doc Charm looks massive odds at 33/1 in The Richmond. Ivawood is odds on but general 2nd fav Jungle Cat was behind Doc Charm when they made their debuts behind The Wow Signal, who later landed The Coventry. Doc Charm hosed in on the bit next time at Ayr in a race that hasn’t worked out but the trainer said the horse didn’t like the soft ground that day and that he would give the horse a break and wait for better going. This is a big step up but he’s done little wrong and if he’s improved as much as Jungle Cat has he’s a hell of a price and an each-way fun bet.
3.10 Goodwood Angel Gabrial 2pts 11/1
3.45 Goodwood Talent 3pts 9/2
2.30 Goodwood Doc Charm 1pt Each Way 33/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.