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2pts win Soldier of Fortune 4/1 Betfair, Arc De Triomphe Sunday.
Regular forum readers will know I tipped (and backed) this horse for the Arc on 2nd July when he was 12/1. For some reason I didn’t put him up here at that time, but I still think he’s worth an investment at current odds.
Unpl 10/3 -2ptsKauto Star if I could ask a tiny favour please don’t reply to this thread- It’s meant to be simply a public record of a betting period, I don’t really want to get into discussion- PM me if you want to chat, thanks!
2pts win Linngari 10/1 Coral Prix de la Foret Sat Longchamp.
Looks a big price to me for a horse that was second last year, ran a cracker in the Dubai Duty Free in the Spring and has been targeted at this, having had a long break then running a good prep behind Darjina over a mile a month ago. His form is just as good as the market leaders and in an open race tens is too big.
Unpl 10/1 -2pts1.5 pts win .5 pt place Elletelle 9/1 Ladbrokes Cheveley Park Stks Newmarket.
As I’ve said before you can make profit following Ger Lyons blind in the UK this season. Doing the race last night I thought quotes of 6/1 were fair, so 9/1 (10s seems to have been a mythical price) is worth taking. Get on early as our friend Mr Segal has tipped it up.
Unpl 6/1 -2 pts.1 pt win Peace Offering best morning price tomorrow (14/1 available tonight) Prix de l’Abbaye Longchamp.
This is a poor Group 1- you’d have attracted the same tired old faces for a Group 3. John Best’s 2yo has an obvious chance but is a silly price at 9/4.
Peace Offering is consistent and likes to run from the front. He is perfectly drawn on this speed-favouring track and can make a bold bid to make all.
unpl 14/1 -1pt
1 pt win Beauty is Truth best morning price (9/1 available tonight) same race.
Beat the above selection at Chantilly. Overseas raids haven’t been successful but every chance back on home soil.
Unpl 9/1 -1 pt
1.5 pts win Satwa Queen Prix de l’Opera 4/1 Paddy Power guaranteed.
Second last year, goes very well fresh, loves cut. Light Shift seems to be regressing as the year goes on.
Won 3/1 +6 pts1 pt win Pindar 9.20 Wolverhampton
Typical Barney Curley plot, 3 runs for a mark, then a break, up in trip….
I can’t see him not trying with this tonight- this is a terrible race. difficult to advise on betting- I’ve taken 3/1 with Victor Chandler, but a lot of his drift and win…up to you.
Won 2/1 +3pts.Trappy fare today, anyone who wins the Scoop 6 will deserve it!
1 pt each-way Pertinent 4.15 Chepstow 4/1 Paddy Power.
I always like proven hurdles form in novices like this. Hard to weigh up exactly what his Auteil second is worth but our mate Tony rates it, so with the race having a nice each-way shape I’m prepared to take a small loss if he gets in the frame. There’s a lot of hype surrounding the favourite and 1/2 is no bargain first time over jumps.
Fell 2 out upsides winner S.P. 10/3 -2pts.2.5 pts win Literato Champion Stakes Newmarket Sat, 7/1 Victor Chandler.
The profile of previous Champion Stakes winners points to the French, who are inclined to give their horses a mid-season break and arrive at these end of year targets fresh. This horse was second in the French Derby at its new reduced distance probably suffering a bit from being given a bit too much to do behind the Frankie-ridden Lawman. If you haven’t seen his last two runs watch them on youtube, you’ll be following me in. He shows a serious turn of foot and his hold-up style should suit Newmarket perfectly.I’d be against Notnowcato at the end of a hard year- he flopped in this race last season. Creachadoir is to me a doubtful stayer, Multidimensional has to improve and is too short given his bare form and the biggest danger might be Doctor Dino, though his US form is hard to quantify.
won 7/2 + 17.5 pts (Dr Dino 3rd)1 pt win Salford City 3.15 Punchestown 5/1 Blue Square.
Seems a little perverse to me to have this horse a bigger price than Hide the Evidence who he hammered the last day with a great ride from the front from Nina Carberry. I see no reason they can’t repeat the dose today as the top one probably needs further and may need the run.
Unpl 5/1 -1pt
1/2 pt win Hide the Evidence same race 7/2 Victor Chandler
As it looks between them to me and he’s back right-handed a saver on Jessie’s makes sense. They’re betting to 99% between bookies and Betfair here so it’s a good race to play in- watch the course bookies shorten everything!
2nd 7/2 -.5 pt1.5 pts win Ndola 8.50 Wolverhampton 9/4 or better on Betfair.
Another of Barney’s in bottom grade, this one has a great strike rate in Class 7 and once again the Spencer Championship factor makes me think that this will be trying tonight. All of Barney’s seem to drift until just before the off and 9/4 should be easily available.
Won 5/2 after 5/1 available on Betfair- putting it down at 7/2, the price I averaged. +5.25 pts.1/2 pt each-way Doctor Sharp 3.55 Newmarket. 14/1 generally.
Rounding out my portfolio for the race (we’re on Macorville at 16s, badly drawn Samurai Way at 10s) with last year’s third, for whom the ground and draw has come right. Shop around in the morning and try to get each-way the first five as this horse has a great chance of being in the money.
Unpl 7/1 -1pt.
1 pt win From Dawn to Dusk 2.20 Cheltenham, 7/2 guaranteed Paddy Power
Phillip Hobbs is in great form and this horse ran two cracking races at last year’s November meeting here then went novice chasing. He must have a big chance in what looks a weakish race. He’s almost 4/1 on Betfair, so may end up better value on there.
Won 4/1 +4 pts.2 pts win Munnings 4.0 Curragh 11/2 Paddy Power
Won easily here earlier in the year and 9lbs rise not enough to stop him, with improvement likely over the longer trip.
Unpl 5/1 -2pts1 pt win Majestic Concorde 4.0 Curragh 7/1 Paddy Power- easily the biggest danger.
Unpl 6/1 -1pt.2pts win Vision of Grandeur 4.30 Curragh 7/1 Paddy Power.
Desperate to take on this favourite who keeps being dropped in grade but runs worse every time. Dermot Weld’s horse has 2 solid runs back from a break and may not have quite stayed 1m6f last time when he hit the front plenty soon enough. Expect more patient tactics today, the ground will be perfect.
Unpl 7/1 -2 pts1 pt win Charminamix 3.50 Cork 9/4 Paddy Power
Another God trained horse, they punted it off the boards last day down to 5/4 when it fell, so under identical conditions 9/4 is more than fair.
Unpl 5/4 -1pt1 pt win Mahler Melbourne Cup 12/1 Betfred
Forum readers will know I’ve been tipping this horse for a while now, but the price seems to be disappearing so take 12/1 today with Fred or on Betfair- I may have more on later if the price holds up and the bulletins are good. His run in the Leger was his best yet and he’s a bit classier than the usual horses we send for the race and a good deal better handicapped. Ground won’t matter to him and the trip is no problem- he won the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot with a powerful staying performance. I can see him pressing the pace on November 6th and being hard to pass under his light weight with a local jock doing the steering.
3rd 7/2 -1pt
I was a bit disappointed he didn’t kick on earlier as he was never going to do them for toe in the straight, but a good run from a 3-y-o.1 pt win Lord Baskerville 2.10 Aintree best morning price.
With thanks to Mounty, who notes that this horse has a great record left-handed after a recent run. He will be a double-figure price.
Unpl 10/1 -1pt.
1 pt win Sunrise Safari 2.30 Doncaster best morning price (16/1 tonight with Paddy Power)
Another theft from Mounty, this horse is best at 5f on good or softer and is well drawn in stall 15 (near side looked best today) Any rain would increase confidence.
Won 11/1 +16 pts2 pts win Faraday 1.40 Kempton. 5/2 or better on Betfair.
Another Barney horse, best backed late on Betfair as it will probably drift like all his recent winners before late money comes for it. I still think Jamie´s championship is the biggest clue that this will be trying tomorrow.
3rd 6/4 -2pts
1 pt win Bridge Run 4.05 Galway best morning price (min 3/1)
good bumper horse, sent over fences notably soon expect him to take high rank in Meade´s novices this season, previous course winner.
3rd 7/4 -1pt.October 2007
Staked 43 pts
P/L +42.75 pts (includes ante-post Pipedreamer)
profit on turnover 99%
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