- This topic has 256 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
1 pt win Hiccups 3.40 Thirsk 7/1 available.
Likes to come from behind off a good pace, should get that today.
4th 7/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win Stoneacre Lad 2.40 Newbury 10/1 Paddy Power.
Good tune up at Lingfield, too big at 10s.
unpl 10/1 -1 pt.1.5 pt win Regime 2.15 Newbury 13/2 guaranteed available.
Goes well fresh, OK on g/soft, trainer flying.
unpl 15/2 -1.5 pts.1 pt win Toboggan Lady 3.40 Pontefract 11/4 guaranteed available.
Bit disappointed to see Couch tipping this up in the Post this morning which explains why we’re scrabbling around for 11/4 when it looked likely we’d get 7/2 or 4/1 last night. This filly is still worth a bet at current odds however given that she promises to be well suited by this trip and is already proven around this idiosyncratic course. In-running players among you might want to lay some back with a furlong or 2 to go as she travels really well in her races.
4th 9/4 -1 pt.1 pt win Twist Magic 3.40 Punchestown 11/4 guaranteed available.
Disappointed at Cheltenham but good ground here should suit and if he can reproduce his Tingle Creek run will surely score. Should be plenty of pace on with Gemini Lucy and Fair Along in opposition, which will suit him.
won 6/4 +2.75 pts.
1 pt win Fingeronthepulse 4.50 Punchestown best morning price (6/1 Paddy Power tonight)
I was very impressed with his win in the Jewson in a race that’s working out quite well. Bold-jumping close to the pace is what you need around here and the extra distance shoudn’t be a problem. Pomme Tiepy has looked well suited by soft ground so the surface must be a worry and I have Air Force One down as a bit soft in a battle.
unpl 9/2 -1 pt.
1 pt win First Down Jets 2.30 Punchestown 5/1 guaranteed.
His 2 banks runs would just about be good enough here, while Enda’s horse is respected 5/1 is fair.
4th 11/2 -1 pt.1 pt win How’s She Cuttin 4.05 Nottingham 12/1 generally.
Goes well fresh, likes cut, tends to hang a bit right so today’s draw is perfect.
5th 9/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win Northern Alliance 2.30 Punch 9/2 Vic C
Fancied under capable claimer
2nd 11/4 -1 pt.
1 pt each-way Notable D’Estruval 7/1 guaranteed, 1/2 pt each-way Ballyagran 9/2 guaranteed 4.50 Punch.
won 7/1, 5th 3/1 +6.75 pts.
Like the shape of this race as Oedipe looks harshly handicapped now and there are 16 runners. Ballyagran goes well fresh (first 2 runs off a break) and Notable D’Estruval will have been helped by the overnight rain- he’s been running well in top 3m races and the drop back to 2 1/2 looks as if it will suit.
Lay 1 pt Natagora 1,000 guineas 5.2/1 Betfair.
Puts us in a nice position, now having 22pts-2 pts approx.1 pt win Aitmatov 4.50 Punchestown, best morning price (9/1 best tonight)
First time over 3 miles in the World Hurdle he ran well, perhaps not quite getting home. I think he’ll stay alright around here and will love the quicker ground, something that will count against several of his rivals, especially Kazal and Catch Me.
3rd 6/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win Eye Candy 4.15 Punchestown 14/1 guaranteed.
1/2 pt each-way Middlemarch 4.15 Punch 33/1 guaranteed.
Not as competitive a race as might first appear and I want to take on the favourite Irish Invader, who has looked a slow learner over fences and surely wants further. Eye Candy loves good ground and ran his best ever race at the 05 Festival when 4th in a grade 1 hurdle. He runs OK fresh and doesn’t look badly treated 9lbs higher than when winning at Gowran in November. Middlemarch is a decent Flat and hurdles horse whose 3 chase runs have been on unsuitably soft ground.
4th 12/1, unpl 16/1 -2 pts.
1 pt win Drumconvis 5.25 Punch 6/1 Paddy Power
Paddy is taking this one on, probably in the hope that the ground won’t suit but connections think he’ll be OK on it- he’s very progressive and stays well, worth a bet at those odds.
4th 5/1 -1 pt.3 pts win Another Ambition 3.20 Perth 5/1 Tote.
Another God special, was heavily punted the last day in Clonmel but coudn’t go on the desperately heavy ground. Will win today barring accidents.
4th 9/2 – 3pts.
1 pt each-way Chabrimal Minister 6.20 Chepstow 4/1 Vic C.
want to take on Cerium as opposing P Nichollls horses in these claimers looks a good strategy. Overnight rain will help this horse who is one of the few the conditions will suit, I can’t see him out of the first 3.
Won 4/1 +4.8 pts.1 pt win Rob Roy 3.55 Sandown, best morning price.
The favourite Medicine Path may be best fresh. Major Cadeaux looks a 7f specialist so the stiff mile may be a bit far. Rob Roy won this in ’06 before an abortive spell in the States. Back on home ground with a bit of ease anything around 7/2 is a fair price.
2nd 11/4 -1 pt.
3/4 pt each-way Caribou 3.20 Sandown 14/1 guaranteed Bet 365
Cost me plenty when winning against his right-hand bias at Newbury last time. That win in soft ground gave encouragement he might stay this trip. He’s looked happiest on soft so far but may be OK on decent ground at this trip. I’m not as convinced as Racing’s Most Overrated Pundit that Iris de Baulme will reproduce his Ayr run over these stiffer fences.
unpl 9/1 -1.5 pts.
1 pt win Princess Ellis 3.05 Ripon, 16/1 Hills
Good front-runner on ground with a bit of cut, stall 20 of 20 should be a help.
unpl 14/1 -1 pt.
1/2 pt each-way Heads on the Ground 2.35 Punch 4/1 Ladbrokes
Not much between him and Garde Champetre, he may cope slightly better with quicker ground- hard to see him out of the 3.
unpl 11/4 -1 pt.
1/2 pt each way Personal Column, Beau Michael 4.20 Punch 20/1 and 12/1 available
both unpl 14/1, 12/1 -2 pts.
want to take on Franchoek who’s had a hard season and won’t be suited by this quick ground and track. Both of these are near the top of our 4 year-olds and I’m forgiving them poor runs in the Triumph.April results
Staked 61.5 pts.
Loss 18.4 pts.A poor month, but no reason to think it’s anything more than statistical variation- selections still started much shorter than prices advised. Looking back over my previous 10 years almost every year has a month like this.
1 pt win He’s the Biz 3.40 Hereford 8/1 guaranteed.
Goes well on decent ground, recent staying on run in a claimer will have put him right for this.
4th 7/1 -1 pt.1 pt each-way Raven’s Pass 2,000 gns Sat, 9/2 generally (5/1 Sporting Odds)
His drift is an overreaction to the rain earlier in the week but the going looks set to be perfect now. Has a bit to find on New Approach from the Dewhurst but quicker ground and the fact that he’s had a run will help. Not too many contenders so 1/4 odds first 3 looks fair.
4th 4/1 -2 pts.
Also 2 pts win Myboycharlie 14/8/07 NR -2 pts.
1 pt win Pepperwood 6.20 Cork 5/1 guaranteed
Was cantering 2 out at the Curragh last day, better ground here should help him get home.
Unpl 11/2 -1 pt.1 pt win Genki 4.00 Newmarket 8/1 Corals, Boyles, 7/1 elsewhere.
My recurring nightmare again this morning, being Pricewised……
If you can get the last of the 8/1 get on, 7/1 is still worth taking. Apologies if I’m parrotting Tom Segal but I haven’t got the Post yet- this horse was highly progressive for Roger Charlton last season under his favoured conditions (good ground or better, 6 furlongs) including a win over C and D. His high draw is historically good and I thought he ran well on his reappearance on ground that would have been too soft. He’s sure to go well.
Unpl 6/1 -1 pt.1.5 pt win,.5 pt place Supaseus 2.05 Newmarket 10/1 Ladbrokes
Goes very well fresh, won this last year. Little bit of ease will suit.
4th 8/1 – 2pts
1 pt win Howe Street 3.55 Newmarket 20/1 Ladbrokes
Progressive last year at the minimum, taking a channce he’ll be sharper than the fav. today.
unpl 16/1-1pt.
1 pt win Dr Knock 3.25 Sligo 16/1 generally
Has superb course form on the flat, taking a chance this track will allow him reproduce it over hurdles.
4th 6/1 -1 pt.
1,000 gns result:
Net 22pts-2 pts Natagora, won 11/4 +22pts
1.5 win, .5 place Savethisdanceforme unpl 12/1 -2pts.On holiday courtesy of Barker and Natagora until 26th May.
Good call on the 1000 Gns today carvills, the temporary respite for the bookmakers is over
1.5 pt win Henrythenavigator Irish 2,000 gns. 9/4 Boyles.
Difficult to understand why he’s a bigger price than his Newmarket victim here as the ground looks likely to be faster if anything than at HQ. He has the potent weapon of a turn of foot which is likely to be deployed even later at the Curragh against NA, who will have a target on his back up the long straight. A bigger danger may well be Jupiter Pluvius and I wouldn’t put anyonw off a saver on APOB’s second string, who was Johnny Murtagh’s first choice for the English version before injury intervened.
won 5/4 +3.4 pts1 pt win 1/2 pt. place Kitty Matcham Irish 1,000 gns 7/1 Hills
Not totally coinvinced by the unlucky Nahood or by Saoirse Abu from the English version and feel Kitty could improve past both of them.
Unpl 5/1 -1.5 pts.Only my second departure from racing on this thread (other was a winning rugby recommendation) and won’t be counting this in my end of month/year tallies, but I’ve tonight had the equivalent of 15 points on Barack Obama to be the next US president at 8/11. I was in the US for the past 3 weeks and am convinced he can’t lose to John McCain, the main reason being that Senator McCain is hopelessly wedded to continuing an increasingly unpopular war. Add that to the "kick the bum out" factor working against the Republicans in a tanking economy and the charisma of the candidate and you’ve got a certainty.
You may be right CH but he won’t have it all his own way. If Clinton hadn’t had the misfortune (so far as her political career is concerned) to be born a woman she’d have beaten Obama hands down. Up against a male who is a staunch nationalist and hero figure he’ll have to up his game.
I’d personally be surprised if America were to elect a black president in the next thirty years.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.