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1 pt win 1/2 pt place Notre Pere Irish National 14/1 guaranteed Bet 365, 5 places.
Even though the ground is drying, this should be the kind of stamina test this horse has been looking for. Novices do well in this race.
3rd 12/1 +.75 pt.
2 pts win Royal County Star best morning price.
The ground is coming right for him now, anything above 4/1 is worth taking.
2nd 6/1 -2 pts.1 pt each-way Smuggler’s Song 5.40 F’House 12/1 generally, 1/4 123 with Ladbrokes.
fell 10/1 -2pts.
Trappy race, but except for his last run this horse has been fairly consistent over fences. He’s gone well fresh before.
1 pt win Robin Du Bois 3.10 F’House 9/4 generally
Didn’t stay in the Pertemps and ideal is probably 2 1/2m, but weak opposition here.
unpl 5/2 -1 pt.
1 pt win Kalderon 2.10 F’House 7/4 or bigger.
Has a bit more class than his solitary opponent and if he’s still in touch turning in could do him for foot.
won 11/10 + 1.75 pt.
1 pt win Marmalade Sky 5.05 F’House 10/1 Hills
Unfortunately the fancy prices are gone but 10/1 is worth taking- has looked like a non-stayer over 2 1/2m but it’s easy to see him jumping boldly in front here and outrunning his odds.
4th 5/1 -1pt.
1 pt Sonnyandjoe 2.40 F’House
hard to believe he’s a bigger price than a horse who’s only won a maiden hurdle. Of course his busy season is a worry, but at almost 3/1 it’s worth the risk.
unpl 11/4 -1 pt.1 pt win Save the Bacon 3.50 Fairyhouse 7/1 Paddy Power, money back if second to Psycho.
The horses that ran at Cheltenham have performed poorly so far at Fairyhouse, so there must be a doubt about Psycho after a hard race in the County. God’s second string probably isn’t as classy but is fresher and must have a better chance of running to form today.This race doesn’t look up to its usual standard, suffering like the whole meeting by its proximity to Cheltenham and there are few progressive young horses that can be fancied.
Paddy Power’s concession is a bonus.
2nd 13/2 -1 pt.
1 pt win Finsceal Beo Dubai Duty Free Sat, 16/1 Coral.
Every time I try to take on TDK lately he comes out on top, but I’m betting he’s underestimated the possibility of this mare coming back to her early season best at a distance which should suit on hopefully fast ground.
Her form unsurprisingly tailed off last year as she was overraced but if she produces a performance like her Newmarket 1,000 gns romp first time up she’s got every chance here. I’m Literato’s biggest fan but reckon this trip on fastish ground mightn’t be ideal- Creachadoir is feared but is no more than fairly priced.
5th 9/1 -1 pt.2 pts win Natagora 1,000 gns Newmarket Ante-Post 10/1 Ladbrokes, Betfred.
The only reason this filly is 10/1 is because of the doubt about her getting the trip at Newmarket. She reminds me of Attraction a few years ago who showed blinding speed as a 2-y-o but managed to do the Guineas double. I think at the price it’s worth taking the chance that she’ll stay. Back her now because if she wins her prep in France she’ll be a lot shorter.2pts win Noir Et Vert Scottish National ante post 12/1 Hills, Betfred.
Ferdy Murphy had the 1-2 last year and is targeting a repeat with this horse, who ran a cracker at Punchestown as a novice in the ultra-competitive Pat Taaffe handicap chase last season. He’s only had one run this year at Cheltenham , when finishing fourth in the Kim Muir on ground that wouldn’t have suited. He’ll strip fitter at Ayr and must go well if the ground is decent.
unpl 13/2 -2 pts.1 pt win No Full 3.40 Navan 6/1 or better (6/1 Blue Square now)
Another dire race for the money and another indictment of English trainers for not sending something over to beat this lot of second-raters.
Anything could win but 2 1/2m on a flat left-handed track should be perfect for No Full and a reproduction of his Paddy Power third or either of the hurdle runs before and after it would probably be good enough here. Testing ground won’t be a problem. The Railway Man looks plenty short enough for a horse that’s obviously had injury problems and still has to prove he retains his ability.
2nd 7/2 -1 pt.Staked 101 pts
Loss 1.5 ptsOnly the second slight losing month, but 16 horses finished second!
1.5 pts each-way Mourne Rambler 9/2 Paddy Power 5.05 Gowran
Regular readers will know of the esteem in which I hold this horse. Today is his toughest task under 11-12 in bad ground but I still think he’ll go close. Each-way with the dead 8 runners looks the call.
4th 7/2 -3 pts.2.35 Aintree tomorrow
1 pt win Exotic Dancer 6/1 guaranteed Bet 365
I’m keen to take on Kuato Star after his hard race in the Gold Cup and Exotic, who may have blown up after an interrupted preparation, looks most likely to benefit if the favourite runs below par.
3rd 6/1 -1 pt.3.45 Aintree
1pt win Leslingtaylor 8/1 guaranteed Bet 365
Novices do well in this race and you can ignore his Arkle run as flat tracks are his bag. There will be serious pace on here which will suit him well.
1pt each-way Four Chimneys 20/1 guaranteed Paddy Power
Another novice, lightly-weighted, stays further and could pick up the pieces if they go too fast here.,
unpl 11/2 , PU 22/1 -3 pts.2.00 Aintree
1 pt win Kicks For Free 6/1 guaranteed available
Inglis Drever has never been at his best around here and this youngster might be ready to take high order in what looks a tired staying division apart from the champ.
unpl 5/1 -1 pt.3.10 Aintree
1 pt win First Buddy 16/1 Corals
Of the 2 principals, I prefer Binocular, but both had hard races at Cheltenham and if there is a shock, Alan Swinbank’s horse is the most likely candidate as he’s fresh and the trainer would know he belonged in this class.
unpl 12/1 -1 pt.4.55 Aintree
1 pt win Whiteoak, 1 pt win Lightning Strike
Keen to take on Franchoek here who will need to travel better than he did at Cheltenham to win here- my instinct was that he’d have had enough for the season after Cheltenham. Whiteoak travelled best from a long way out in the Mare’s race. Lightning Strike travelled much more kindly than Group Captain in the Ballymore- the latter may not be fully in love with hurdling.
2nd 4/1, unpl 10/1 -2pts.1 pt each-way Battlecry 2.00 Aintree 11/2 Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3.
The favourite is solid enough, but this track suits front-runners over fences and I can see Battlecry being hard to catch around here with an easy lead.
2nd 5/1 +.4 pt.1.5 pts win Kenzo III 3.45 Aintree 12/1 available
We were on when he won at Wincanton the last day and I remember thinking he was a perfect Topham candidate- a bold-jumping front-runner.
The negative is that he’s failed to build on his first run in the past, but he’s been off for 7 weeks since and should still be fresh enough. If you’re into in-running betting he could well trade short in running as he’ll be up front jumping well- might be worth saving your stake half way around.
.5 pt win In The High Grass 3.45 Aintree 20/1
This is more a bet on the trainer than the horse- Tom Taaffe says he jumps these fences really well, that’s enough for 20/1 to look big.
both fell, 10/1, 16/1 -2 pts.Just a review of our bets so far:
We have 1 pt each-way Bewley’s Berry 16/1
1 pt win Cloudy Lane 16/1, laid 1 pt 7/1
1 pt win, 1/2 pt place Slim Pickings 16/1.Bewley’s Berry and Slim Pickings are still worth backing at current prices if you’re not on already. Cloudy Lane is now too short. Comply or Die is a very short price for a blinkered runner. Simon falls too often for me. Butler’s Cabin has looked completely disinterested this season. King John’s Castle has a huge stamina doubt. Snowy Morning and Mister Pointment are very short on experience for this. Of the outsiders, I’ll admit to having had a tickle on Mon Mome and Baily Breeze.
5th 12/1, unpl 7/1, 4th 10/1, -1pt.1 pt each-way Kruguyrova 2.15 Aintree 7/1 Betfred.
I fear for Tidal Bay’s jumping at 2m around here,where it could be a repeat of Doncaster, when he made 2 significant mistakes. This mare will be up front serving it up, and could hold on to win.
unpl 5/1 -2 pts.
1 pt win Al Eile 2.50 Aintree 11/4 guaranteed Bet 365.
Simple story- he’s won it twice before, missed Cheltenham to be kept fresh for the hat-trick and had a nice blow-out on the AW recently. Osana has to prove his stamina and will be a sitting duck up the straight for Al Eile to pass late. He’d be a bigger bet but the price is a bit disappointing.
won 11/4 +2.8 pts.
1.45 Aintree
1 pt win Pevensey, Pearl King.
Pevensey’s form figures are poor but John Quinn won this with a similar type last year and he could be a plot. Pearl Knight goes OK fresh and Phillip Hobbs also likes this race.
unpl 18/1 , won 10/1 +9 pts.
1 pt win Bold Phoenix 8.20 Kempton
Don’t think Barney can resist having a winner on National day.
3rd 10/3 -1 pt.1 pt win Icanshift 5.00 Folkestone 7/2 guaranteed available.
Likes to dominate around here, no obvious competition for the lead today. Won the same race last year.
non-runner.2 pts win Royal County Star Bet 365 Gold Cup Sandown 26th April 8/1 with the sponsors.
Once I heard he was confirmed for this I knew I’d be backing him as soon as the 8/1 looked like drying up: that time is now. I’ll be amazed if the price lasts the day tomorrow so be quick!
He looked like a non-stayer in the Irish National but better ground at Sandown should help him last home. His mark looks very fair and I can see him starting around 7/2 on the day.
Unpl 6/1 -2 pts.1 pt win Natagora 1,000 Guineas ante post, 7/1 Ladbrokes.
Seeing as we’re already on at 10s it was pleasing to see her come through her prep today with flying colours, moving easily in behind the speed and putting the race to bed quickly once asked by Lemaire. Given that today was 7f on soft ground, I’d say the stamina question is more likely to have a positive answer at HQ and she goes there with a great chance. For some reason Ladbrokes are taking her on, make them pay as even for trading purposes, the 7/1 is worth taking to press up your bet.1.5 pts win, .5 pt place Savethisdanceforme 1,000 guineas, 20/1 Hills, Bet Direct, Stan James.
I keep coming back to this race as I really don’t fancy horses like Muthabara and Spacious who take out a good chunk of the market. Like others on here I was impressed with this filly’s run at the Curragh recently when she quickened clear only to tire in the soft ground. Aiden O’Brien’s horses have all been needing a run this year, unsurprising given the very wet Spring. Given that, she must come right into the Guineas picture with normal improvement and Hills 20/1 is too big.1 pt each-way Halcon Generaldais Scottish National 8/1 Bet 365.
I’m resigned to doing my dough on Noir Et Vert as the unseasonably soft ground won’t suit and I can see Ferdy Murphy rerouting him to Punchestown rather than running him from a stone out of the weights here.
The softer the better for Halcon though and top weight is not insurmountable in this race- I’ll be amazed if he’s not in the first 4.
2nd 8/1 +1 pt.1 pt win My Turn Now 3.30 Cheltenham 20/1 Victor C, Betfred
Decent horse last year, stable was out of form when he flopped earlier in the season, but was only 4/1 to win the Relkeel Hurdle, so 20/1 here off a lower mark is too big.
unpl 16/1 -1 pt.1 pt win Yes Sir 4.05 Chelt 20/1 available.
Runs well on better ground in the Spring and Summer, fresher than most of these, no massive competition for the lead here.
unpl 16/1 -1 pt.1 pt win Inch Lodge 8.20 Wolves 8/1 guaranteed available.
Loves it around here.
unpl 13/2 -1 pt.
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