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2 pts win Wonderkid X-Country HCap Chase Cheltenham Tuesday 4/1 Cashman’s NRNB.
Won the corresponding race at the December meeting by 8 easy lengths. Is 11 lbs worse off with the second, won’t be enough to change the result. Has had a blow out over hurdles in the interim. The only worry would be soft ground, which seems unlikely at this stage especially as the X-Country track always seems to ride faster than the other courses.
2 pts win, 1 pt place Hordago Kim Muir Chase 16/1 generally.
Looking at the weights I’d say it’s unlikely Tony Martin’s The Roney Man will get in, but if he does he’s a danger to all- the fancy NRNB prices are gone however (sorry!)
One who should get in and be a leading fancy under Katie Walsh is course specialist Hordago. he won’t be 16/1 on the day.2 pts win Tidal Bay Arkle Chase 10/1 Vic NRNB Irish shops
Mounty will laugh his ass off if he reads this as I’ve been slating this horse’s jumping all season but the more I look at the race the more I think he’ll win if he’s healthy and jumps adequately. Given his stable’s well-publicised problems make sure of the NRNB concession.1 pt each-way Kasbah Bliss World Hurdle 8/1 Betfred, Hacketts NRNB
With the doubts about Howard Johnson’s form it might be worth taking on Inglis Drever at a short price. This horse ran fifth as a 5-y-o last year and still looked short of stamina behind Drever in bad ground at Newbury. He flopped on ground that would have been too quick at Ascot but his latest performance at Haydock in the Rendlesham was a revelation when he left Lough Derg for dead. He looks sure to run better this year than last and if Drever isn’t 100%, who knows…
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Jered County Hurdle 14/1 Betfred NRNB
Nina Carberry said last night that this was his target and novices have a good record in this race.
1 pt win Pires Fred Winter HH 14/1 NRNB Betfred.
Another God sleeper, don’t worry about the bare form, this is his day. Harshly handicapped on the face of it but if he turns up, AJM must think he can win.February 2008
Staked 33.5 pts.
P/L + 38.5 pts.
115% profit on turnover.July 2007- End Feb 2008
Staked 257.2 pts
P/L + 148.7 pts
58% profit on turnover.A Royal through and through actually….some epic battles with the Rebel down the years!
Grand National
Only applies if you’ve backed him at the advised 16/1:
Lay 1 pt Cloudy Lane Approx 7/1 BetfairIs becoming the "wise guy" horse for the National and will probably start favourite if getting there but probably no shorter than 5/1. Will go there as the handicap good thing with a row of 1s by his name but in my experience these types seldom win the race. I’m happy to have him running for a profit without costing me anything and to look elsewhere for the main bet.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Slim Pickings 16/1 generally.
Can impove on last year’s 3rd if settling better as he did in yesterday’s prep.William Hill Trophy Cheltenham Tuesday
1.5 pts win, .5pt place Mon Mome 28/1 Stan James, Bet Direct, Bet 365.At the 5 day stage this is shaping up to be a terrible renewal of this usually competitive race. Most of the horses are too jaded, out of form or just badly handicapped. My original bet Verasi isn’t left in so we get our dough back- reinvest it on Venetia’s solid chaser who ran in all the big contests last season including 4th in this, just looking a shade high in the weights but always running well. He’s a year older and wiser and 3lbs lower and was given a nice prep over hurdles to prime him for this.
2 pts win Chomba Womba David Nicholson Mares Hurdle Cheltenham 7/2 Corals, some Irish firms.
I was finding it hard to split her and Sweet Kiln in this race but I read today that SK has had an infection, has had a "rushed preparation" and indeed is not a certain runner. They look some way clear of the rest to me.Racing Post Plate, Cheltenham Thursday
1.5 pts win .5 pt place Oedipe 12/1 Boyles, Bruce. (worth taking 10/1 or bigger)
This is another Festival handicap chase that is shaping up to be fairly ordinary and I’m happy with my Bible Lord bet, but feel it’s worth adding Nicky Henderson’s French import to the portfolio. He’s only run once in the UK when sluicing up at Kempton in December ’06 and hasn’t been seen since, but if anyone can pull off a Festival win with a horse off a big layoff like that it’s our Nicky. Few can be fancied in the race apart from those two.1 pt win Halla San 3.15 Sandown 9/1 Paddy Power, Betfred.
Wanted to make sure ground conditions didn’t deteriorate before backing him. Showed a nice turn of foot when winning twice at Musselburgh and if he’s there at the last he’ll just about win. The Pipe horse is being overbet because of last year’s result- has every chance but is no 5/2 shot.
Unpl 8/1 – 1pt.2 pts win Ashkazar Fred Winter HH Cheltenham Tuesday, 9/2 Tote NRNB, take anything 7/2 or bigger.
Seriously impressive today, will be hard to beat under a penalty next week- I’d bet they pick this race.
i agree with you there .halla sam decent e/w bet.my only worry is he has not many races and that sometime goes against them.but i"m still having a bet on him
1 pt win Impudent 3.10 Naas 4/1 guaranteed available.
Not often I give horses a second chance but I knew my fate before she ran the last day, so badly did she drift. Unsurprisingly she ran as if the run were needed on her first start for Colm Murphy and she should be straighter today. The case for her rests largely on her Flat defeat of Essex in the Summer, which was much better form hthan her promising hurdles starts. Made in Taipan is underpriced just because he finished a distant second to River Liane in a weak race at Leopardstown.
Unpl 4/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win Woodview 4.45 Market Rasen 11/4 Guaranteed Bet 365
This is a terrible race. This horse sulked the last day in a big field but this will suit better- he likes to be up there and I can’t see huge competition for the lead here.
Fell 11/4 -1 pt.Made in Taipan is underpriced just because he finished a distant second to River Liane in a weak race at Leopardstown.
Mightn’t have been as weak as it looked! The Cooper horse has certainly been paid a compliment.
Today was encouraging for Sizing Europe fans with Henry de Bromhead having a 14/1 winner and a 20/1 second from his only two runners. It’s hardly crucial in trying to sort out a champion hurdle but good to see nonetheless.
1 pt each-way Kruguyrova Arkle Chase tomorrow 16/1 Betfred, Boyles.
I think Noland is too short here and am already on Tidal Bay, who’s stable form is a worry. I think it’s worth adding this mare to our bets as she jumps well and will be up front out of trouble. Something may do her for toe after the last but I think 4/1 to be placed is too big. Thyne Again is feared but I have doubts about his jumping at 2 miles.P.S. could I respectfully ask people not to post discussing the selections on this thread- by all means PM me (makes it difficult tallying up each month)
Thanks.2 pts win Tidal Bay Arkle Chase 10/1 Vic NRNB Irish shops
Mounty will laugh his ass off if he reads this as I’ve been slating this horse’s jumping all season but the more I look at the race the more I think he’ll win if he’s healthy and jumps adequately. Given his stable’s well-publicised problems make sure of the NRNB concession.Well done Carvills and well done on Kruguyrova who you advised each way at 16/1 – top stuff.
Mike
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