Cant Beat That All Weather Southwell Action

[Cav]

Another Christmas Day for the Southwell wheelbarrow men as they carted the dosh from that sweetest of venues yet again yesterday.

6 of the 7 winners top or second rated by the market.
All 6 running within 28 days.
All 6 finished top three last time out.

Picking it up in the streets we were…..

Meanwhile over at that swamped dogtrack where the “proper” racing was taking place, the maket top two returned a 21 percent loss over the first two rounds action.

No wonder that Ricky Lake is potless…..

Come racing…..come All Weather Racing

#awchamps

[eddie case]

Aftertimer

Put ’em up before the races not after

[ricky lake]

Eddie , I used to like Cav’s posts , but the sand and the sun has definitely changed him ….

skip it Cav your becoming boring ….Southwell wont exist in a few years after Newcastle wipes it out

Its the worst racing in the world , apart from the sweet shop and fish n chips on offer , it would be a proper waste …and of course dedicated punters like Max , but on a wet day, grade 7 dross while getting soaked is not heaven by any means ,,,,

The dross channel will be sad when its gone …along with Bath and a few others …the money men are getting their barrows ready for some other ventures

Carry on bigging it up , its a pile of shite for sure

Imo

[indocine]

Don’t actually do grade 7 at Sout or Ling, only Kemp & Wolv.

[Gingertipster]

Cav,
There is no doubt poor grade favourites do just as well or even better than higher grade favourites. But in my (admittedly short) experience of betting on this grade (gave up) – I found those backed down in to one of the favourites weren’t necessarily the "form horses". ie Less money is gambled on this grade of race and any market move (money) for one horse is a greater share of that market. Therefore, to correct their book – bookmakers need to shorten the horse up further; in lower grades less money is needed to move a horse from 7/1 in to 3/1.

With favourites doing well it

could possibly

be a case of the market being a better guide to who’s going to win (advantaging those in the know) – rather than actually "form" working out (advantaging form experts).

Also tried my hand at predicting betting markets for grade 6 and 7 by studying form. In a bid to see if I was good enough to put in for a Racing Post racecard writer’s job… I wasn’t, possibly because of the above – found it much harder to predict SP’s in lower graded races.

Value Is Everything

[Cav]

From the too much time I’ve spent on the exchanges, Ginger, I can tell you with certainty its takes no more or no less to move a Catterick class 5 sevens into threes, than it does any horse with a similar profile on the all weather.

The market moves stuff is a myth.

Its just Class A snobs like Alan Lee turning mole hills into mountains. When Ballydoyle have a mass defection after they’ve got the price on Kingsbarns (RP Trophy) nothing is said.

As for form working out…..

Last time out winners on the sand have a strike rate

Highest BHA rated on the sand comes in

Favourite, Top Rated, Won Last Time Out =

Favourite, Top Rated, Won Last Time Out =

Now dont get me wrong, Ginger, I love turf racing, absoloutley love it, but we must banish this ignorance like snakes out of Ireland.

Good of you to elucidate though, logically and with figures, unlike that Ricky "Las Vegas" with his three score and ten "dross" calls, every time he posts.

are you having that one Ricky…..

#awchamps
#alwaystrying

[Gingertipster]

From the too much time I’ve spent on the exchanges, Ginger, I can tell you with certainty its takes no more or no less to move a Catterick class 5 sevens into threes, than it does any horse with a similar profile on the all weather.

Interesting Cav, but not really what I meant. I am sure similar types of races on Turf and AW are the same.

What I meant was:
You were extolling the virtues of a so called "crap" card at Southwell over Chester etc.
I was pointing out that in poorer grades (both AW and Turf) it takes less money to move a horse from 7/1 to 3/1 because the money involved is a bigger percentage of the race total wagered. Bookmakers having to cut horses accordingly. It is not a "myth", it’s fact. Bookmakers would be stupid not to drastically reduce prices according to their liabilities.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Its just Class A snobs like Alan Lee turning mole hills into mountains. When Ballydoyle have a mass defection after they’ve got the price on Kingsbarns (RP Trophy) nothing is said.

As for form working out…..

Last time out winners on the sand have a strike rate

Highest BHA rated on the sand comes in

Favourite, Top Rated, Won Last Time Out =

Favourite, Top Rated, Won Last Time Out =

Now dont get me wrong, Ginger, I love turf racing, absoloutley love it, but we must banish this ignorance like snakes out of Ireland.

Good of you to elucidate though, logically and with figures, unlike that Ricky "Las Vegas" with his three score and ten "dross" calls, every time he posts.

are you having that one Ricky…..

#awchamps
#alwaystrying

All very interesting again Cav,
But every statistic you give

could (possibly)

easily be put down to races on the All Weather being (on average)

less competitive

, ie easier to win. So they

would

have higher strike rates.

Do you have average prices to go with each of those statistics, otherwise they mean very little.

Kingsbarns was favourite on the day, so don’t see how he comes in to it. Unless you are also comparing the strike rates of Turf ante-post favourites – which could be 12/1 + against day of race AW favs which could be odds-on.

You are also being unfair on Ballydoyle, as Kingsbarns was supplemented at a very late stage. So everyone knew Ballydoyle’s intentions immediately after he was supplemented.

Value Is Everything

[Author]

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