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Seems a long time ago that I put up Ballyburn for this, and though delighted with the 16’s, it might as well be 160’s if he goes for The Arkle, which looks the plan.
He was a fair sized bet, so I’ve laid off the stake, and a wee bit more, so that I can cover Johhnywho, who I actually prefer for The National Hunt Chase, but just couldn’t resist the 33’s. Hopefully get a good run today from Jonny, and in an ideal world, I’ll get the chance to lay a bit off on him too today, to give me a free race.
Ballyburn 16’s (Laid 6’s)
Edit – Apologies, cashed out Johnnywho in December, and put it up on my betting thread. Thought I’d put it on this thread, but obviously not
Gorgeous Tom was added Antepost
I think there’s a fair chance that Ballyburn still runs here or waits for Aintree
His pedigree always implied a step up in trip was required sooner than most and if someone can show me a 7 year old Flemensfirth, particularly in recent times, that has won a Grade 1 two mile chase…
Add that to the Old Vic part of his breeding and how he jumped at Punchestown, I think he’ll be going at least 2m4f next SpringGot suckered into this horse last year and he underachieved- I wonder was his wind not right perhaps- hoping for a better season over fences.
Ile Atlantique 33s
More shekels:
Waterford Whispers 100-1 ew b365
Henry doesn’t have a BANC horse yet, unless Slade Steel bucks his ideas up or An Tobar turns out to be great over fences. Gorgeous Tom looks good but not sure if up to the standard required.
JP doesn’t have one for this either I don’t think. Hoping for a good run today.Paul Townend has just been on Road To Cheltenham and said that they aren’t keen to take on Sir Gino again with Ballyburn, which basically means he’s coming here.
When Jango Bay won the Tolworth at Aintree I thought at that time he looked
impressive. He was 2nd in his next three, although it didn’t help carrying a
5lb penalty and he was unlucky in 2 of them (couldn’t find room a couple of
times). He jumped big, he looked a certainty to go chasing although sending
him to Cheltenham 1st time was asking a lot. He was magnificent all the way
round, didn’t touch a twig and accelerated after the last like a really good
horse. He’s a better chaser than he was a hurdler.He’s down for the Arkle and the Brown Advisory. There’s no way is he going to
the Arkle, 2m is much to short for him and although he’s only gone as far as
2m 4 1/2 (at Cheltenham) the way he finished at Cheltenham suggested he wouldn’t
have a problem going around 3m. He’s 16/1 with plenty but I can see him going off
at half that price. He can only improve after his 1st chase although I don’t really
think he’d need to. I’m into the 16s, I really like him.Jango Bay 16/1
“His pedigree always implied a step up in trip was required sooner than most and if someone can show me a 7 year old Flemensfirth, particularly in recent times, that has won a Grade 1 two mile chase”…
Flemenstar was a 7 year old when winning a Grade 1 2m Novice Chase.
A full brother to the staying hurdler Barafundle.Lot depends on a horse’s temperament.
As a hurdler Ballyburn could be pretty keen in his races. He’s not quite so keen over fences, but it was certainly still there on his debut in this sphere. Going just a reasonable pace over 2m3f. His keenness could possibly be put down to being too fresh for his reappearance. But it’s also possible it’s more than that. Then next / last time setting a strong pace at 2m on goodish ground, where there was no keenness. But that might have been due to the speed they were going… So when stepping up to a slower, 3m pace… there’s a fair chance of him taking a keen hold. Especially as he’s front run on his only two chase starts to date. Is he going to settle in amongst horses? I think they’re going to need to settle him in behind if he is to stay 3m, at least for this March / until learning more. His next run should show us more.
Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying he won’t stay. I think there’s even a case to say that at around 7/2 for this it might be worth risking ante-post. Just that the distance is not as simple as some seem to believe.
Value Is EverythingFlemenstar won that because UDS fell
And one swallow and all that
Flemensfirth and Old Vic says stayer. It did during the summer and Willie is saying it now
Jango Bay heads for the Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown on Saturday.
This will be the third time in a row he’s run over 2m 4f. If he runs the
way he has run in those races, he will be running on at the end. He’s always
looked like he would benefit from a longer (ie 3m) Chase. If he wins on
Saturday, and he’s odds on at the moment, there is no way he will go backwards
to 2m for the Arkle (I hope) which, all going well, means he will run in the Brown
AdvisoryI backed him back on January 12th when he was 16/1, didn’t go for the firms
offering NRNB. There are 4 firms, I’ve never used them, and I doubt you’d
get more than a fiver on with them. Of the realistic firms, Betvictor and
Betfair are offering 12/1 and of those offering NRMB it’s abaout 8s, 15/2
in a place. I reckon it’s still worth taking the 12/1 without the NRNB. If
he wins on Saturday, and wins well, his price will be considerably less.Best of luck guys
I love that horse, BigS, and think Nico gave him a poor ride yesterday ( I’ve been unimpressed with several of his rides lately )
Hell probably run here but I think his best chance will be Aintree
Was gutted with The Jukebox Man’s injury as thought he was going to take an awful lot of beating in this. Must be really hard on connections who don’t have many class horses.
Ballyburn is the obvious one now but I’m not a fan of his jumping. I’m siding more for Dancing City currently.
Ballyburn’s jumping was perfectly fine at Leopardstown
Imagine Dancing City taking on Sir Gino over 2 miles…
I see the Rebecca Curtis horse Haiti Colouers is priced up for both this and the Ultima.
I think he’d have a cracking chance in the Utilma. He’s one of the best jumpers I’ve seen this season. And if ballyburn is confirmed as having this as his target then that may persuade her to send HC down the handicap route.
Entered up at Newbury at the weekend which will tell us more. So I may include in some small stakes doubles and trebles for both races.
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