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Are backers of Aidan O’Brien runners for the Guineas/Oaks/Derby etc concerned about their selections running at the Breeders Cup?
I am thinking of Happily, September, US Navy Flag and Mendelssohn in particular here.
There seems to be little or no correlation between the Breeders Cup meeting for Juveniles and significant success the following season.
Ballydoyle ran at the Breeders Cup and was then second in the Guineas but was pretty grim thereafter. On the whole it seems poison to be running on the US tracks on generally really fast ground. Hit It A Bomb hit a setback after winning the Juvenile Turf and he follows a trend of colts winning for Europe but then doing next to nothing at three.
I am going to be laying the four mentioned above for the Classics.
Is anyone nervous about bets they placed before it was announced they would be taking in the Breeders Cup?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Only backed September for next year. Not duly concerned about her running here. She should of won the Fillies Mile, so it looks like “another bite at the apple”. More concerned about the draw for her to be honest.
A few of her fans on here strongly believe the faster ground the better, and nowhere will be faster than here. So makes sense for her to take her chance.
I’m not fussed about September running here.
I’ve actually had a bet on her at 6/1 for the race last week as it is always quick ground in the states.
She’s a fast ground horse so I had to have a go.
It doesn’t matter how she gets on today in regards to the Oaks though, as we already know she wins that by 8 lengths
Sky Lantern was successful in the 1000 guineas but generally I’d view it as a negative
delighted that Clemmie is staying at homeGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Sky Lantern was successful in the 1000 guineas but generally I’d view it as a negative
delighted that Clemmie is staying at homeAgreed, I was a bit concerned of injury for Clemmie and a little relieved she’s not in the line up.
Breeders Cup/US courses are always sharp and this year’s is particularly tight turning which isn’t great for injury. Added to that, more horses in each race than such a sharp track should have. increases risk… And so too does the firm ground which the meeting is usually run on. In GB and I, courses would be prepared with the horses interests in mind. Not so US tracks, they unfortunately believe record times prove how good the horses taking part are. Stupidly preparing tracks to be as fast/firm as possible.Our very top two year olds rarely go the Breeders Cup Juvenile route, juvenile winners rarely of Classic standard. That said, for two year olds that like firm ground it’s their best chance of Group 1 victory. This is no ordinary year either. AOB runners were going here before the trainer’s Group 1 World record was beaten and no doubt wants to make his tally even harder to beat. So a better standard of AOB juveniles were entered this year.
I’ve backed both Happily and September for today’s race.
Value Is EverythingSeptember ran pretty well but Happily was awful. Silly odds at 9/4 in my opinion.
Not sure how strong the form will prove and it remains to be seen what a run on that type of going does to a young horse.
Happily sits at poor value for the Classics after this dire effort.
September is now as low as 5/1 for the Oaks and that is suicidal in my opinion. For all that she looks like farther will suit, another half mile at Epsom is no gimme by any means. I would prefer a more lightly raced prospect for the Oaks and odds of 25/1 or more. For me, September just has the wrong profile for an Oaks winner.
We won’t know for sure until next year of course but British/Irish winners of the colts turf have tended to be disappointing at 3YO in the past 10 years.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There’s quite a variation in price for the Oaks though isn’t there Steve? She is as big as 12’s with Bet365 which I would say IS reasonable value for a filly bred to get the Oaks trip being out of Peeping Fawn (Irish Derby, Yorkshire Oaks) and by Deep Impact (multiple G1 winner over 12f+). She always finishes her races well and has a nice turn of foot BUT she does need a sound surface. I am a big fan and think she can go well in the Guineas as well if it’s quick.
I agree with you that running at the BC is a put-off. Those races look like they are real rough and tumble and not sure it is what these 2 year-olds need at the end of a season.
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There seemed little to take as a positive from US Navy Flag’s run and overall the meeting should have resulted in Quantitative Easing of the odds on the O’Brien runners involved this weekend.
This being The Borg, means bookies are still scared sh**less by O’Brien’s team and there is rank value across the boards.
Oh well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Personally I’d rather take 6/1 about U S Navy Flag for the Commonwealth Cup than 9/1 for the Guineas. I still think there’s a chance Moore will ride Klimt at Newmarket and go close, maybe even win with U S Navy Flag folding late on and then routed for a sprinting career following Muhaarar’s path basically (albeit he ran down the field in the French Guineas).
But I don’t think running in the Breeders Cup is necessarily a detriment to a young horses chances in the following year’s Classics. Homecoming Queen and Sky Lantern both finished down the field as 2 year old’s at the Breeders Cup before winning the following year’s 1000 Guineas.
Personally I’d rather take 6/1 about U S Navy Flag for the Commonwealth Cup than 9/1 for the Guineas. I still think there’s a chance Moore will ride Klimt at Newmarket and go close, maybe even win with U S Navy Flag folding late on and then routed for a sprinting career following Muhaarar’s path basically (albeit he ran down the field in the French Guineas).
But I don’t think running in the Breeders Cup is necessarily a detriment to a young horses chances in the following year’s Classics. Homecoming Queen and Sky Lantern both finished down the field as 2 year old’s at the Breeders Cup before winning the following year’s 1000 Guineas.
Homecoming Queen was the biggest fluke in the history of Horse Racing. Some of the horses were in the stalls for ages when the Barry Hills filly died in the stalls. Some fillies had already run their race when they eventually got the stricken filly out and the race re-organised. Homecoming Queen never won again and never ran to within 20 lbs of her Guineas rating again.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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