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Churchill will go for this surely over the mile.?
The tight bends will not be to his liking in the mile but the extra distance of this shouldn’t be a problem. 33’s with Paddy and sportsbook and as low as 10’s elsewhere worth an each way poke.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Very much agreed. I think a return to this trip will play to his strengths. By no means do I feel he can turn over Gun Runner or an on-song Arrogate but he must have a big shout of getting a place.
Churchill each-way (33/1)
Backed Churchil about 2 months ago for this @ 33’s and thought i done my dough on that one.
The one i really like is War Decree E/W @ 50’s NRNB PP
Had a feeling he would be going to the BC all year, but was still a possible for the Mile also until today.
Interesting they ran him on Dirt at Dundalk where he bolted up over 1M 2F. His owner is a major sponsor of the meeting, and if he does go here should be spot on to run to his best. Difficult taking on Arrogate and the best of the Americans, but you never know.I have a note for War Decree as well Botchy, but seriously I believe Aiden & Coolmore could position Galileo in the States, with Churchill (if they run him) he to me looks the Miler of the 3-y-o Euro Crop, has the breeding on the dam side to have the paces for this test on a dead surface, Meow who at her best was beaten a neck in the 5f Queen Mary(Gr2) by the Worlds Best Dirt Gr.1 Sire Storm Cat. Meows less succesful 3/4 sister NEHALENNIA by Giant’s Causeway is dam of Triple Santa Anita Dirt winner & Damascus Stakes placed Navy Hymn.
In a year where the best horse in the race, Arrogate, is no longer that, this Classic could be up for grabs; World Best Sire, Worlds Best Trainer, Worlds Best Jockey and the Best Broodmare sire in North America 3 years in a row. Churchill!Best Wishes
SilkDraw has been made:
1 Arrogate
2 War Decree
3 Win The Space
4 War Story
5 Gun Runner
6 Mubtaahij
7 Churchill
8 West Coast
9 Gunnevera
10 Pavel
11 CollectedWould love to see Arrogate run back to form here and sign off in style. Tough race and rarely any horses win back-to-back BCC’s.
Gun Runner for me . He will have to step up in order to lower Arrogate’s colours , but he is improving with every run and has looked mightily impressive in his last two races , albeit against lesser talented opposition .
With Arrogate struggling to recapture his form , I fancy Gun Runner to steal a march on the rest and outstay them up the stretch .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Backed Arrogate at 11/4 last week
Simply thought that was too big. If he bounces back to 90% of his best, he’d be odds on.
I predict Churchill to run like Gleneagles did and never be anywhere near contention.
What puts me off about Churchill, is the fact that PaddyPower/Betfair are the two standout prices on him at 25/1, the next best being the general 16/1. Paddy Power, and by extension Betfair, often tend to be one step ahead of the market with Ballydoyle runners, and right now they’re laying him as if he’s three-legged. I’ve always wondered whether the rumours of them having some sort of inside info were correct, or whether it was simply down to them having such a disproportionately large share of the market which allowed them to lay such prices, knowing that the sheer volume of bets placed will offset the extra liability. I have little knowledge of the inner-workings of bookmakers, so I could be completely off the ball here, but I thought it was worth noting.
I have to agree with Botchy here about War Decree at 50/1. He has a dirt pedigree through and through, and his performance in Dundalk over this trip last month was highly encouraging. How similarly the Polytrack in Dundalk, and the dirt in Del Mar ride, I can’t say for certain, but it should give a fair indication of a horse’s ability to go on the surface and he tanked along it.
There’s too much uncertainty surrounding Arrogate for me to consider backing the two market principles for a win only bet. If Arrogate is back to his best, he should win, but that is a big if. If he’s not, Gun Gunner should win. Too many if’s there for my liking, and War Decree to give me a run for my money at 50/1 is far more appealing in my opinion.
Regarding the draw, Arrogate and my selection War Decree have both been drawn at the dreaded rail, which is slightly discouraging for backers. Arrogate’s jockey Mike Smith says he’s not phased by this and will ride him hard from the stalls, and try get him close up behind the early pace setters. From the limited amount of course and distance data available to us, this doesn’t seem like the best strategy. On the dirt course over distances of a mile and above, 44% of winners made all, 37% of winners we’re late closers coming from more than 3 lengths off the pace, and a measly 19% of winners were those who favoured tactical speed. It should be worth noting there is only a limited amount of data available, as Del Mar only reverted back to a dirt course two years ago.
Using this data however, I think it would be wise to take the 13/2 on Collected. He won the Pacific Classic racing from gate to wire, and he has the perfect outside draw. Arrogate certainly looked like he simply kicked into gear far too late that day and if he has improved at all from that run he should reverse the placings at the very least. However, like I’ve said there are too many questions surrounding him to back him at the prices. If Del Mar does indeed have a draw and speed bias, Collected ticks both of these boxes. On top of this, he is undoubtedly a damn good horse.
Collected to wire the field at 13/2.
War Decree to come from the back and steal a place at 50/1.Good luck all.
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