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Evening all, haven’t posted here for a while, been many a year but I’ve finally found some time to hopefully get posting again.
How do people view the Breeders Cup as a whole? I often hear many on podcasts such as the Racing Post don’t pay much attention or even bother to have a punt on it for various reasons whether its the dirt racing, the Americans view on drugs on certain horses or other reasons. I personally love it and have been giving it my yearly attention since around 2008…even though I wasn’t quite of legal gambling age!
Anyway my few for this year to follow are:
BOLT D’ORO
PRACTICAL JOKE
DREFONG
ULYSSES (If he goes)
LADY ELI
ARROGATE ( Still think hes a top top horse, however Del Mar has been a concern for Baffert in the past I believe)
UNIQUE BELLAThe ones I’m struggling to pick anything from are the Juvenile Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Distaff, Filly & Mare Turf and the turf Mile, nothing jumps out at me..anyone have any views on this year?
Arrogate will be hard to beat if at 75%, i dont see the point in running churchill on dirt,he will finish last
I had a few doubles/trebles on ballydoyles juveniles and mares as i think their head and shoulders above the rest atm, september (better ground) and rhododendron (primed for this)are certainties in my view, a bit unoriginal but although contrary to most peoples views because he dosent have a standout guineas horse their a general poor bunch, i think its the best bunch as a whole hes ever bad
Would love james garfield to win the juvenile turf but as said above hes up against it, hes a bit short bow but im on at 16 and 20s
Beeeders cup mile does anyone know if le brivido is running? Id have a small bit on him should he show at a price (10/1)
Lady aurelia Should win the sprint
Dirt mile i like accelerate had a bit on at 6/1
Churchill to take on Arrogate and Co – not sure what they are thinking, at the pace they are likely to go I don’t seem him getting home and thats assuming he takes to the dirt (he doesn’t have a dirt pedigree like Giant’s Causeway did) and we all know how his sire did when they tried it with him.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/breeders-cup/europe-lining-up-possible-record-number-for-del-mar-as-obrien-dominates/30603711/8 for Lady Aurelia NRNB is just about the most incredible price I’ve seen this year for a horse.
How on earth isn’t she odds on for this? The owners of Marsha have already said they think she will struggle on the bends and we know that will suit Lady A as he potent turn of foot sends her 5 clear.
I was all over her at Ascot as everyone knows and she would’ve won for me at 25s to break the track record that day had she not been eased down meaning I was a tenth of a second out.
Lady Aurelia @ 11/8
Agreed MoM. Think she’ll probably go off odds on. 11/8 is an unbelievable price, with Sportsbook by the way.
Agreed MoM. Think she’ll probably go off odds on. 11/8 is an unbelievable price, with Sportsbook by the way.
Paddy Power were offering 11/8 NRNB last night.
For what it’s worth, I’ve also backed:
– September @ 6/1 (how could innit back my filly on American fast ground)
– Rhododendron @ 3/1 (think he American conditions and ground will suit)
– Ulysses @ 11/4 (simply think he will win)
– Masar @ 6/1 (small bet)
– Ribchester @ 10/3 (small bet)
– Bolt Doro @ 11/10 (should be odds on like Lady A. Reckon this fella is the next American superstar)
– Mind Your Biscuits @ 8/1 (vibes have been good and I have always thought he’s got a race like this in him)
– Arrogate @ 5/2 (given him one last chance to come good. If he’s back to his previous good self, he’d be odds on)All NRNB
Think the English horses will have an excellent year, hence why I have so many bets this time around.
Particularly like two of my American bets though in Bolt Doro and Lady A both at odds against. Both will go off odds on and both should be far too good.
Agreed MoM. Think she’ll probably go off odds on. 11/8 is an unbelievable price, with Sportsbook by the way.
Paddy Power were offering 11/8 NRNB last night.
For what it’s worth, I’ve also backed:
– September @ 6/1 (how could innit back my filly on American fast ground)
– Rhododendron @ 3/1 (think he American conditions and ground will suit)
– Ulysses @ 11/4 (simply think he will win)
– Masar @ 6/1 (small bet)
– Ribchester @ 10/3 (small bet)
– Bolt Doro @ 11/10 (should be odds on like Lady A. Reckon this fella is the next American superstar)
– Mind Your Biscuits @ 8/1 (vibes have been good and I have always thought he’s got a race like this in him)
– Arrogate @ 5/2 (given him one last chance to come good. If he’s back to his previous good self, he’d be odds on)All NRNB
Think the English horses will have an excellent year, hence why I have so many bets this time around.
Particularly like two of my American bets though in Bolt Doro and Lady A both at odds against. Both will go off odds on and both should be far too good.
Very much agree with most of those, assume Ulysses will be going as he missed Champions day. Agree Bolt D’oro is the next big thing over there, that’s been the general consensus after his first 2 starts. Moonshine Memories could be pretty good too I think she goes in the Juvenile Fillies. Richard Fahey has said Ribchester is 50/50 and a decision will be made after a canter tomorrow. I quite like Elate in the Distaff as an alternative to Stellar Wind, she’s improved all season and looks to be primed for this.
I only do UK/French runners in general.
This year I have Ribchester (Followed him all season) and Lay Aurelia.
Single on Ribchester at 7/2 and doubled the two with Lady Aurelia at 11/8, as I think Martha will be all at sea in the USA and perhaps Frankie can celebrate for real.
I thought they said Clemmie was done for the season but she is favourite in her race. I will leave that for now. The same with US Navy Flag, he looks an ideal sort from the front here and is the same 3/1 as Clemmie but if they are serious about going to the Guineas, I doubt the Breeders Cup is a good idea for ab already busy colt.
I had Mind Your Biscuits at Meydan earlier in the year and he won well but I am not too familiar with the USA form to be honest.
Just the two bets for me at moment, may do Ulysses as well.
Stop Press:-
Ribchester confirmed to have his last race in the Breeders Cup Mile
Ribchester twice at 7/2 and double with Lady Aurelia 11/8
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
SHe is indeed done fir the season steve and the word is usnf and mendelssohn will be kept apart, one going dirt one to the turf, i thought usnf would be put away myself!
Didn’t even realize until today that this wasn’t on til next weekend! thought it was this weekend!
Personally I think World Approval is going to prove mightily hard to beat in the Mile and have put him in a treble with Lady Aurelia and Gun Runner which worked out at 18/1.
As for the Turf, I’ve had a bit of each-way money on Cliffs Of Moher at 16/1 NRNB and in the Dirt Mile a bit to win on Lancaster Bomber at 25/1 with the thinking he’ll be kept apart from Roly Poly in the mile.
Elsewhere, I’m not really struck by much. You’d think the Turf will be between Highland Reel and Ulysses but as for who’ll win I don’t know and think it’ll just come down to how the horses feel on the day.
My favourite #breederscup stat:
Last UK/Irish Mile winner was in…1995
0 from 57 since.
Another strong team in ’17, on paper at least.
My favourite #breederscup stat:
Last UK/Irish Mile winner was in…1995
0 from 57 since.
Another strong team in '17, on paper at least.
— Matt Bisogno (@MattBisogno) October 26, 2017
Interesting stat. No doubt the result of the UK/Irish horses starting their seasons much earlier. As tough as Ribchester is, he started in March and I can’t have him at all. A bit of a kick for my 20/1 Lancaster Bomber ante-post bet, but he should still run well.
The draws have been made for all the races:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DelMarRacing?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
I’d be amazed if Rhododendron could win the Filly & Mare Turf from out there in the car park. Over the shorter than usual trip I saw her as the only real danger to Lady Eli and now see 11/4 for the American filly as the value in the race. She won’t get anywhere near those odds over the pond and I think she’s a banker.
In the mile I was also happy to see Roly Poly drawn out with the washing as I’m a big believer that World Approval will win that. Ribchester is probably the only other horse capable of taking this out but he’s been on the go since March and had a very hard slog 2 weeks ago at Ascot. 3/1 World Approval with William Hill is good enough for me.
In the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf I would advise people watch Rushing Fall’s victory in the JP Morgan 3 weeks ago before they go rushing in on Happily. This looks a seriously good filly but she is only a best priced 7/2 and there is serious opposition so I’ll probably leave that one alone. I know the Yanks really fancy her to keep that one at home.
I can see the argument that Marsha at 11/2 in the Turf Sprint is an each-way bet to nothing and I’m sorely tempted but she has thrown in the odd no show from time to time and may find them getting too far away from her early on.
I know U S Navy Flag will have his supporters at 8/1 in the Juvenile on the dirt but looking at his running style I’m not sure about the surface and by the sound of things the 11/10 fav, Bolt Doro is as good as past the post.
Just a few thoughts there.
Also done a double to go with my earlier treble.
Lady Eli and World Approval both to win 11/1 (Paddy Power)
Personally I think World Approval is going to prove mightily hard to beat in the Mile and have put him in a treble with Lady Aurelia and Gun Runner which worked out at 18/1.
As for the Turf, I’ve had a bit of each-way money on CLIFFS OF MOHER at 16/1 NRNB and in the Dirt Mile a bit to win on Lancaster Bomber at 25/1 with the thinking he’ll be kept apart from Roly Poly in the mile.
Elsewhere, I’m not really struck by much. You’d think the Turf will be between Highland Reel and Ulysses but as for who’ll win I don’t know and think it’ll just come down to how the horses feel on the day.
Haven’t you had enough of him already Charles?
The rumour doing the rounds is that they have renamed the colt to:-
CLIFF HORSE MOHER
Good luck with him and your others though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve gone for Highland Reel at 9/4 in the Turf. This may sound counterintuitive, but if he hadn’t won the race before, I think he would be shorter. I think people have a tendency to believe in the – “he won’t be able to get away with it again” – mindset. Then again, he is up against perhaps the most progressive horse of the year in Ulysses. I’m not sure what way the market will go on the day, whether the punters get stuck into Ulysses or Highland Reel I can’t say with even a degree of confidence, their form is just too closely tied. The Ballydoyle horse is the one who’s price is currently showing some signs of contraction, so I thought it best to take the 9/4 just in case. If he is bigger on the day, I will go in again.
Ulysses of course has massive credentials, I don’t need to go into too much detail on that. But this race is just made for Highland Reel. All the conditions of the race will be in his favour. It’s his optimal trip, optimal ground, a course with a short run-in that favours front-runners, and a main market rival who is better over 10f – and who could also be disadvantaged by his running style. Stable form for the two rivals is quite disparate too (7% strike rate compared to a 16% strike rate in the last 2 weeks), and although Stoute does have a good record in the Breeder’s Cup Turf (4), he is still behind O’Brien (6) and is considerably behind for overall Breeder’s Cup wins.
Looking through the race, there doesn’t seem to much pace besides Highland Reel. The two American horses Beach Patrol and Oscar Performance will be handy, but I don’t think they’ll have the speed to go with the Prince of Wales winner.
Hopefully Ryan Moore can emulate the peach of a ride Seamie gave him last year, and let the Iron Horse Mk.II sign off as a champion.
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