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Black Jack

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  • #1038
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    It always worried me last season that O’Neill seemed averse to running Black Jack against the top class novices. Getting hammered in the Cleeve showed he was probably right to do it (I don’t buy the ground theory, Mordin writes a good piece on this), but us (me and anyone else who cares to admit it) mug punters were obviously drawn in by the whole thing!

    Anyway, I can’t helping thinking that for a horse that travels so well in its races, he’d probably be better over shorted distances and wouldn’t be out of place in the Champion. Does anyone else think Jonjo maybe forced himself into a corner with the horses optimum distance by avoiding horses last year?

    Mergebjk

    #43784
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    So if he ran in the champion what price would you put him in at? (BJK and not Jonjo that is:biggrin: )

    #43785
    dave 22
    Member
    • Total Posts 339

    he wouldnt have the pace for the chmpion in my opinion. thats why he has been kept to longer races. <br>he just isnt top class, at any distance, thats why he was beaten. a complete hype horse. what did he beat in his novice races?

    #43788
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Aragorn

    Have you considered it might be you that is wrong, rather than Jonjo.:) <br>The horse won 3 times over the distance last season, (2 gd 2’s and a gd1), all on ground no better than good, and it’s difficult to see where else he could have run as a novice<br>His first run this season confirmed his well-being – he then runs 20lb below his usual form on desperate ground, and suddenly he doesn’t stay?

    #43789
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 3:39 pm on Feb. 28, 2007[br]So if he ran in the champion what price would you put him in at? (BJK and not Jonjo that is:biggrin: )<br>

    Probably about 12-14/1. I think he’d have good each way claims.

    Dave, the field behind him in the Sefton last year were a pretty decent bunch, several graded winners in behind.. I think with BJK, he doesn’t really stay three miles on a stiff course, especially if there is cut in the ground. He also travels so effortlessly and has a marked turn of foot and as Hardy Eustace has proved, the Champion hurdler really needs to be able to stay 2 1/2 miles..

    #43790
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Reet, I’m not saying I am, just putting forward a theory.. Jonjo obviously knows a great deal more about it than I do, this is just my take.. I never understood why he didn’t run in the sun alliance last year.

    He also stuffed Blazing Bailey on the bridle over two miles five. For what its worth I don’t think he ran below par, I just think he got beat on the day and conditions didn’t favour him.

    #43791
    dave 22
    Member
    • Total Posts 339

    i think come next season everyone will be thinking BJK wasnt as good as we all thought. hype plays a good trick on the brain! i was sucked in too!!!

    #43793
    jazza23
    Member
    • Total Posts 25

    Bjk’s ability has rightly been called into question over his shocker of a run in the Cleeve Hurdle, however JJ has always gone on record telling everyone that the horse needs good ground. Also when the Champion jockey of the last 10 years tells you thast hes something very special you’ve got to take notice. As for running in the C/H i think he’d have no chance, lacks real pace in my opinion

    #43794
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    I could be wrong but wasn’t O’Neill saying last year that he needed some cut in the ground?

    I’m not sure O’Neill knows the horse as well as you may think. He’s been quoted plenty of times as saying that the horse shows nothing at home and often in those cases the Jockey would know best as they’re the ones riding them when it matters. McCoy may agree with O’Neill but I think they wanted a surefire victory last year, which would have been a lot more difficult in the sun alliance.

    Don’t agree that he lacks pace, watch some of the footage of last years races, he way he makes up ground when asked is proof that he has a good turn of foot. Albeit, those are longer races where perhaps it’s easier to deceive the eye.

    #43795
    Gareth Flynn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 583

    Bjk’s ability has rightly been called into question over his shocker of a run in the Cleeve Hurdle

    It was a shocker of a run alright, but it had nothing to do with his abillity.

    #43797
    dave 22
    Member
    • Total Posts 339

    yes aragorn, you are right, jonjo always said he needed cut or softer to be seen at his best, he gets beat on heavy, and all of a sudden he needs good or faster. <br>however, any horse will make ground up if the horses around it are dropping back, which makes him look like he has more speed than he does. <br>If he had the pace, or the quality he would be in the champion.<br>he is very good, but not top class.

    #43798
    Danny
    Member
    • Total Posts 790

    The market leaders for the Ladbrookes World Hurdle :<br>Black Jack Ketchum 7/4 <br>Inglis Drever 4/1 <br>Mighty Man 5/1<br>Blazing Bailey 8/1<br>Asian Maze 8/1

    <br>The above are the main contenders for the Ladbrookes World Hurdle and with all of them having there problems i believe if BJK runs he will win by about 4-5 lengths.

    Inglis Drever was a top class horse there’s no doubt about it him winning the stayers hurdle beating Baracouda proves that, since his return from injury he has proved he’s retained some of that ability beating Irish Wolf by a neck and finishing 4 lengths behind Blazing Bailey last time out but to reverse that form at Cheltenham he will need to be back to his best.

    Mighty Man for me is the biggest challenger to BJK, he was 3rd in the LWH last year and then he went on to win at Aintree beating MWDS, this season he was 2nd to Hardy Eustace and then he beat Lough Derg last time out in December where Blazing Bailey was back in 4th his problem for me tho is in Last years LWH he was outpaced with 3 hurdles left to jump.

    Blazing Bailey has been beaten by both MM and BJK on Soft and Good to Soft and imo he only has a chance if the ground is heavy (which is unlikely)

    Asian Maze has been running poorly in ireland in champion hurdle trials, he doesn’t look to have the form of a festival winner.

    Black Jack Ketchum has won 8 out of 9 races 4 of those wins being at cheltenham and imo he will prove how good he is in the world hurdle and as already stated Mccoy thinks he is a special horse so who are we to disagree.

    #43799
    dave 22
    Member
    • Total Posts 339

    asian maze is a mare.<br>how can black jack turn the form around and beat blazing bailey if inglis drever cant turn around 4 lengths?<br>blackjack wont run, jonjo will keep him in his box, mighty man like flat tracks and doesnt like the soft, asian maze will go for the champion, so that leaves inglis drever and blazing bailey. i think inglis just gets it because he was giving blazing bailey weight in the cleeve and he will have improved again for the run. imo.<br>there will be a proper pace with labelthou in the race, which will also play to inglis drevers strengths

    #43802
    doyley
    Participant
    • Total Posts 567

    Hello,

    BJK : he stopped too quick for my liking LTO. The way he runs I thought he would of suited soft down to the ground.

    The winner for me will be KASBAH BLISS, coming to the last on the bridle last time with a big weight and a inexperienced jockey, he faded on the run in.

    A better jockey, better going, I think he will get the 3m at Cheltenham comfortably

    regards,

    doyley

    #43803
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Trackside, not sure I understand your point? The most impressive thing about BJK last year was his ability to travel and quicken on the bridle with utmost ease. I think 2 1/2 miles is probably his optimum. I also think firstly, they didn’t want him getting beat last year and secondly wanted to make sure he won at the festival. Not sure if Mrs Smith had ever had a festival winner before.

    Two of the best hurdlers of the last ten years both won sun alliance hurdles (Istabraq and Hardy Eustace) before winning the champion, I just think (and it’s only my opinion) that they should have taken in the sun alliance and then given him a go over 2 miles…

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