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My twopenneth
Afsoun can spoil his chances before the start, however, when he does not do this he is probably capable of mixing it in top company
Mixing it yes but winning?
I wouldn’t be confident of him winning a race at odds of 1/2. He’s what I call a professional loser.
Maybe I’m being a bit harsh I dunno, I just think he’s a wimp.
Flash
Probably not quite good enough to win, but place claims in say CH would be my thoughts
Blazing Bailey finished just over 4l behind one of the best staying hurdlers of recent times in the World Hurdle, in the same season he was completely and utterly destroyed by a cantering Black Jack Ketchum in receipt of 8lb.
How, on that form line, was BJK over-hyped?
Get him away from Jackdaws Castle, move him to a trainer like Hughie Morrison or James Fanshawe, and we might just be treated to one or two more special performances.
Blazing Bailey finished just over 4l behind one of the best staying hurdlers of recent times in the World Hurdle, in the same season he was completely and utterly destroyed by a cantering Black Jack Ketchum in receipt of 8lb.
How, on that form line, was BJK over-hyped?
Get him away from Jackdaws Castle, move him to a trainer like Hughie Morrison or James Fanshawe, and we might just be treated to one or two more special performances.
Ahhh the old "yardstick" handicapping method.
This method however, does not take into account ALL the factors that have influenced performance and is probably the very reason horses like BJK get over-hyped
He might have been overhyped but anyone who is simply saying that BJK is no good needs to think again.
He cantered over Blazing Bailey last season and also finished ahead of Inglis Drever at Aintree.
After yesterday there’s got to be something wrong with him but if they’ve done all the tests without finding anything, maybe retirement is the only way…
Sending that hurdle flying on the back straight will definitely not have helped, but I don’t see it as an excuse for such a lethargic performance thereafter. I liked Flash’s word choice in "wimp", the horse just doesn’t seem interested unless it’s all going his way. It’s a great shame, beacuse when he was getting it all his way (in mediocre novice company) he looked very, very talented.
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I could never accept that BJK was anything other than a top class novice hurdler who had the World at his feet only 12 months ago.
He might not have run fast times or beaten many top class hurdlers, but probably only because he never had to. In a series of 7 races against a total of 77 horses not one of them managed to get him off the bit, including the high class Blazing Bailey.
The horse has a problem, and while obviously no one knows what it is, he is nothing like the same horse he was 12 months ago, and to blame that on the trainer, the horse’s resolution, or his inability to run a fast time beggars belief when one reads his subsquent form.
How did Blazing Bailey manage to find 38l from one race to the next, or Lough Derg 33l, or Faasel probably a similar amount? Because BJK wasn’t trained properly, he threw the towel in, or he couldn’t run fast enough times? Yeah, in a pig’s eye!
These things happen to horses, and they all too rarely come back, but let’s not forget it was the horse’s, and the trainer’s, ability that got them there in the first place.Interesting you call Blazing Bailey high class.reet. When he was mullered by BJK as a 4yo he was only rated 150 by the official handicapper and only had an RPR of 148, which is a fair bit short of a Top Class Novice hurdler is it not???
And here’s thought. Could it not be that the mature 7yo BJK has not progressed from the above point, whereas, a 4yo like BB would be open to progression as he matures to 5 and then 6 and may also possibly have enough progression in him to surpass a standing still horse like BJK
It is not that unrealistic for BB to have enough progression still in him to surpass Inglis Drever this year
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Interesting you call Blazing Bailey high class.reet. When he was mullered by BJK as a 4yo he was only rated 150 by the official handicapper and only had an RPR of 148, which is a fair bit short of a Top Class Novice hurdler is it not???
To finish 3rd in the Triumph and 2nd in the Mersey Novices over inadequate trips is none to dull is it?
When he was thrashed by BJK in the Relkeel, it was BB’s first run over anything like the test he required, as he quickly demonstrated in his next 3 races.And here’s thought. Could it not be that the mature 7yo BJK has not progressed from the above point, whereas, a 4yo like BB would be open to progression as he matures to 5 and then 6 and may also possibly have enough progression in him to surpass a standing still horse like BJK
To accept that, then you would also have to accept that horses like Lough Derg and Faasel also made sudden and dramatic improvement. Far more logical, imo, to believe that there is actually something wrong with BJK
It kinda baffled me a bit that Afsoun went off favourite for this race. Staying 2m 5f at Ascot is a different proposition than Cheltenham, and if you take into account that they went a very good gallop throughout the race it was obvious that Afsoun was not going to get home. Still like to see BJK would do over 2m.
JohnJ.
why is everyone on such a downer regarding afsoun. ive had some great wins with this horse. if you look at its profile and only back it when conditions are in its favour it has only failed to place once!!!
IDEAL CONDITIONS = LESS THAN 11 RUNNERS,17 FURLONGS OR LESS,GOOD TO SOFT OR WORSE its lifetime form then becomes, (11F123). im quite happy with that,chipmunkI am not degrading Afsoun, I think he is a good horse, i just doubt he stays 2m 5f around Cheltenham in a truely run race.
JohnJ.
reet
BB form back then was not carp, nor was it anything to shout about m8
Faasel the enigma was rated as high as 154 in 06 and could not the step up to 25F and possibly the 2nd time Cheek pieces been the reason for his performance in the West yorkshire?
There were two races took place within a race at Ascot on Nov 20th
Lough Derg was in one race and HE, BJK, SE etc were in another, Lough Derg won his by being given about a stone or more advantage by the other runners and HE won his, brushing aside the inferior rated BJK etc in the process
Is this feasible reet???
I am not degrading Afsoun, I think he is a good horse, i just doubt he stays 2m 5f around Cheltenham in a truely run race.
JohnJ.
Even allowing for him getting edgy, he looked not to get trip that day JJ and a decently run 16f round Chelters may be right up his street
Reet
Could it be when beaten by BJK that Blazing Bailey had an off day , similar to when being beaten 40L by Sonnyjoe this season ? Blazing Bailey has tended to show its best form January – March after a couple of runs. i personally think when BJK won the 3M novice that was good as he was aged 7. Out of Novice company BJK just hasn’t cut the mustard, when push has come to shove he’s thrown in the towel ( three metaphors in one sentence ! ).
If you think there is something wrong with BJK do you think it happened in between those two races against BB ?
Looks like Black Jack Ketchum could be retired afterall…
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