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Hi all, am knew to the forums so apologies if this is in the wrong section.
Bishopbriggs had absolutely no form at all going into yesterdays race at Lingfield (3.20pm), would of been easy to lay imo. Is it words from the stable which would interest people in this horse for it to be backed from 7/1 to 11/4 and absolutely hose up?
I fail to understand how it can be allowed or either not looked into by the BHA.
Thanks.
David
- Total Posts 17716
Just one of those things David.
The BHA aren’t in a postion to tell owner they can’t bet their horse when he’s fancied.
In this particualr case the horse was hammered by the handicapper for winning a couple of races which was obviously way too much for him to cope with.
It has to be doubtful he was stopped when he took on Sweet Applause at Lingfield of his new mark as most owners after a couple of touches like they seem to have had run horses on their merits hoping the can go on to better things. What happened after that is down to pure guesswork.
In this particular case he been kept on the go and it would seem like they were flogging a dead horse. It could be he was sent racing delibertly short of work or it could be he was wrong in himself. The BHA have no way of telling.
The horse is then given a 3 month break for the first time in almost a year and comes back of a mark only 2lbs higher than his last win, is gambles and wins.
So either the break was to disguidse the fact they were lining him up for a touch or he simply appreciated the rest and showed improved form at homme for it.
No matter what they BHA think might be the case they have no grounds to pull the trainer up as he will simply say needed a rest and bla bla bla. So unless they are prepared to say he’s blatant liar which would be totally unacceptable they are stumped.
This was either a very clever touch or someone seizing an opportunity to make a few quid because a horse came back to himself due to a rest.
Brave man who stands up and says which.
Apparently he had extensive treatment on his bad back so that explains his return to winning ways. See today’s Guardian.
Bishopbriggs was in fact tipped by the flatstats twitter feed prior to the race on the statistical basis that his winning jockey was back on board.
There is further discussion of the Quinlan double in Jose’s regular postings on horses dropping in the handicap.
All weather racing for low prize money seems to me ripe for insider coups. I initially thought it was a minefield and have not bet on it but I am beginning to think it is susceptible to rational analysis, based on factors other than form, such as trainer behaviour and strike rates.
- Total Posts 17716
The old back problem eh?
Was he claiming sickness benifit while he was off?
I’ve had a bad back for 20 years (Ankylosing Spondylitis the last I heard which has led to a form or Arthritis that’s left me in Agony in the past 15months), I wish I’d went to a vet the first time I had a symptom back in 1989
Well done to the Quinlans, Given the depth of the plunge, I presume a lot of their hard working and presumably relatively low paid staff had a nice Christmas bonus (or at least I hope they did),
Lastly, I hate hearing about these bookies who’ve suffered badly, it’s a one sided story and never has any facts or figures to back it up, or distorted ones at worst. I remember a few months ago there was a well publicised coup in a Saturday race mid afternoon, it took 2 hours (12 races over 3 cards) for another favourite to win. Yesterday the 2 coups were in the last 2 races but given the 50/1 and 20/1 shots that won the first 2 races, it wss good to see them denied the chance for a quick revenge. I’m sure today they’ll get some with interest.
Think I’ll have a rest today and prepare for Cheltenham tomorrow.
Well done to the Quinlans. A work of genius having the handbrake on Tell Halaf for six runs, dropping 19lb in the weights and then trying.
As for Bishopbriggs, I wonder if it is a coincidence that he runs better when ridden by Adam Kirby. The horse is owner by a Maurice Kirby, curiously enough.
Bad few days all round for the bookmakers since racing resumed on the 27th. Favs 40.91% in the UK&Ire (54-132). LSP at actual BFSP -5% commission = +40.52 points and 30.70% ROI or +32.21 points and 24.40% at bookmaker SP
Bishopbriggs was subject to a few raised eyebrows on this forum 10 months or so ago.
Don’t give me any BS about him being ‘hammered’ by the handicapper. He won off 52 and 58 and was up only 5lbs in the same grade when he failed a hat trick bid. After doubling in price and a bit more before the off the usual front running tactics were dropped and he pulled for his head behind the pace, surprise surprise he lost.
I did get an interesting e-mail back from the BHA after enquiring about the horse and the race in question.
Maybe Adam Kirby has a touch of the Culhane about him
Hi all, am knew to the forums so apologies if this is in the wrong section.
Bishopbriggs had absolutely no form at all going into yesterdays race at Lingfield (3.20pm), would of been easy to lay imo. Is it words from the stable which would interest people in this horse for it to be backed from 7/1 to 11/4 and absolutely hose up?
I fail to understand how it can be allowed or either not looked into by the BHA.
Thanks.
David
Hi David,
Our syndicate owns a horse that ran this week and was backed from 8/1 to 11/4. I don’t know where the money came from (not us) but if it had won easily you could well have started a similar thread about him. The conclusion that the connections had landed a coup would have been completely wrong.
I’m not saying that the connections hadn’t planned this for some time but a move from 7/1 to 11/4 probably doesn’t indicate a massive weight of money and it isn’t always connections that cause a price to contract in that way.
Tuffers
As I pointed out in the thread I started about this horse, the problem I have is the way the horse has been ridden the last 7 or 8 times.
For a horse who has made all to win two races and on those occasions Adam Kirby looking almost desperate to get out quick and get to the front scrubbing the horse for all he’s worth, then why has the horse been held up out the back and never got near to troubling the judge so many times recently?
If since those last two victories the horse had been ridden the same way every race…the jockey trying their best to roust the horse into the lead and then not being good enough to win then fair enough keep dropping the horse the odd pound or two.
IMO, when there is such a blatant change of tactics like this the horses handicap mark shouldn’t be altered, as IMHO it is encouraging ‘non trying’.
Punters who don’t play the exchanges haven’t got a cat in hells chance when stuff like this is going on, how the hell are you supposed to know how the horse is going to be ridden?
Interesting to note that the market move was supposedly from 7s to 11/4, yet the sportinglife report a bet of £500 to win £6000, and another of £400 to £5000.
That would tend to indicate that someone rather fancied the horse.
The horse may well have benefitted from a break and some veterinary work on his back. However he was hardly over campaigned in the previous 12 months.
Interesting to note that he has only beaten 17 horses home in his 8 races since his last victory, including going off at 40/1 off a rating of 57, and 50/1 off a rating of 58.
My guess is its a pretty smart bit of training, and the money was down.
Little sympathy for the bookies, just wish I’d been in the know too.
If you look at the prizemoney on offer at events like this then its hardly surprising that connections look to go for a touch. To those who lay horses in events like this, I would advise caution- Total Posts 17716
Bishopbriggs was subject to a few raised eyebrows on this forum 10 months or so ago.
Don’t give me any BS about him being ‘hammered’ by the handicapper. He won off 52 and 58 and was up only 5lbs in the same grade when he failed a hat trick bid. After doubling in price and a bit more before the off the usual front running tactics were dropped and he pulled for his head behind the pace, surprise surprise he lost.
I did get an interesting e-mail back from the BHA after enquiring about the horse and the race in question.
Maybe Adam Kirby has a touch of the Culhane about him
You got one nippy toungue on you sunshine. If you care to look at the sporting life form he ran off 63 at Lingfield and 52 when he won at Wolverhampton. That may well be wrong and you may be correct but it doesn’t give you premise for bad manners.
You emailed the BHA about what may I ask?…you aren’t a tell tale tit by any chance are you?
The Sporting Life website is wrong in this case, Fist. As it usually is when it comes to ratings.
Hi all, am knew to the forums so apologies if this is in the wrong section.
Bishopbriggs had absolutely no form at all going into yesterdays race at Lingfield (3.20pm), would of been easy to lay imo. Is it words from the stable which would interest people in this horse for it to be backed from 7/1 to 11/4 and absolutely hose up?
I fail to understand how it can be allowed or either not looked into by the BHA.
Thanks.
David
Hi David,
Our syndicate owns a horse that ran this week and was backed from 8/1 to 11/4. I don’t know where the money came from (not us) but if it had won easily you could well have started a similar thread about him. The conclusion that the connections had landed a coup would have been completely wrong.
I’m not saying that the connections hadn’t planned this for some time but a move from 7/1 to 11/4 probably doesn’t indicate a massive weight of money and it isn’t always connections that cause a price to contract in that way.
Tuffers
Hi Tuffers, thanks for that. Just made me wonder what it was really, you just never see a horse backed from example 8’s to 11/4 and then the horse rarely loses, so the 11/4 available seems like free money!!
David
- Total Posts 17716
More than one way of skinning a cat these days Tuffers. Horse paid 7% less on betfair than the ISP which is very unusual.
Add to that it’s the only time he’s bounced out the stalls in 9 races and led, while I am only guessing, I’d say they landed quite a touch.
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