The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Big Race Dutching

Home Forums Tipping and Research Daily Lays And Plays Big Race Dutching

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 31 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #7192
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    Start of the flat today and I’m going to keep a diary here of my betting on all Class 2 Handicaps, Listed and Pattern races for the entire season. It wont be possible to do every race but I’ll hopefully get around to the majority of them.

    All these selections are based on trends for each individual race that I’ve analysed using my database.

    Each race usually throws up several qualifiers and my method will be to dutch these selections to return a fixed profit of £100. The first number after the horses name is the price obtained on BF, the second number is the stake.

    3 races today…..

    22/03/08 Doncaster 14.50 Spring Mile Class 2 Handicap
    Zaahid…..4…..43.26
    Dont Panic…..10.5…..16.48…..(1st)[/color:1jkyniaf]
    Ella Woodcock…..25…..6.92
    Regal Parade…..38…..4.55
    White Deer…..95…..2.00
    Bet Cost £71.21

    22/03/08 Doncaster 15.25 Cammidge Trophy (Listed)
    Utmost…..5.8…..36.73
    Wi Dud…..9.2…..23.16
    Advanced…..12…..17.76
    Tax Free…..14.5…..14.69
    Appalachian Trail…..19.5…..10.93
    Hoh Hoh Hoh…..38…..5.92
    Strike Up The Band…..86…..3.87
    Bet Cost £113.06

    22/03/08 Doncaster 16.00 The Lincoln Class 2 Handicap
    Vitznau…..10.5…..11.75
    Escape Route…..19…..6.48
    Annemasse…..25…..4.93
    Bet Cost £23.14

    Daily Investment £207.41[/color:1jkyniaf]
    Daily return – £36.20
    ROI -17.45%[/color:1jkyniaf]

    Next race Further Flight Listed Stakes at Nottingham early April.

    #155117
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    1 race today…..

    02/04/08 15.40 Nottingham Further Flight Stakes (Listed)

    Spanish Hidalgo…..5…..30.47
    Gull Wing…..9.8…..15.55…..(1st)[/color:2jy2091h]
    Bogside Theatre…..24…..6.35
    Bet Cost £52.37

    Daily Investment £52.37
    Daily Return £100
    ROI% 190.94%[/color:2jy2091h]

    Overall Investment £259.78
    Overall Return £63.8
    Overall ROI 24.56%[/color:2jy2091h]

    Next up will be the Craven Meeting mid April.

    #158082
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    2 races today…..

    16/04/08 15.10 Newmarket European Free Handicap (Listed)

    Stimulation…..2.94…..53.95…..(1st)[/color:2peicwzi]
    Nacho Libre…..34…..4.67
    Bet Cost £ 59.2

    16/04/08 15.45 Newmarket Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3)

    Infallible…..5.32…..39.48…..(1st)[/color:2peicwzi]
    Spinning Lucy…..7…..29.33
    Shabiba…..9…..22.81
    Albabilia…..15…..13.69
    Bet Cost £ 104.41

    The Feilden at 4.20 produced too many qualifiers and would have taken the bet cost heavily into odds on and so is ignored this time. For interest the trend horses are Kandahar Run, Pegusus Again, Poet and Yarhab.

    Daily Investment £163.61
    Daily Return £200
    ROI% 122.62%

    Overall Investment £423.89
    Overall Return £263.8
    Overall ROI 62.23% [/color:2peicwzi]

    More from the Craven meting tomorrow.

    #158313
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    Just 1 for today

    17/04/08 Newmarket 15.10 Abernat Stakes (Listed)

    Prime Defender…..7.6…..22.11
    Zidane…..8.8…..19.10…..(1st)[/color:1jf8ag81]
    Sonny Red…..12.5…..13.44
    Balthazaars Gift…..14…..12.00
    Evens And Odds…..120…..2.00
    Bet cost £68.65

    No suitable trend horses in the Craven, the Earl Of Sefton points to the market leaders Multidimensional and Pipedreamer but at over 70% of the market between them I’m happy to pass the race over.

    Daily Investment £68.65
    Daily Return £100
    ROI% 145.66%

    Overall Investment £492.54
    Overall Return £363.8
    Overall ROI 73.86% [/color:1jf8ag81]

    Thanks David, early days! Will have a look at the Class 2 sprint at Newbury
    tomorrow.

    #158343
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Good stuff so far Cav

    #158577
    onefurlongout
    Member
    • Total Posts 197

    Yes Cav looking good so far, Im trying to do something similar at the moment I take it that your not looking to recoup your losses.

    I’ve search high and low for a staking plan, but some of the more knowledgable people on here are advising me that its a no goer. My dutching strike rate is over 60% so Im inclinded to think that there is some millage on adopting a simple plan.

    Best of luck with the season

    #159799
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    1 for today…..

    25/04/08 13.50 Sandown Gordon Richards Stakes (Group 3)

    Ask…..1.74…..135.14…..(1st)[/color:3e5r2fee]
    Bet cost £135.14

    I looked at the Esher Cup (Sandown 13.15), couldnt narrow it down sufficiently. Trends wise the horse to be against is Stubbs Art.

    Daily Investment £135.14
    Daily Return £100
    ROI% 73.99%

    Overall Investment £627.68
    Overall Return £463.8
    Overall ROI 73.89%[/color:3e5r2fee]

    Possibly Sandown and Leicester tomorrow.

    #160016
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    2 for today…..

    26/04/08 15.50 Leicester Leicestershire Stakes (Listed)
    Captain Marvellous…..10.5…..12.69…..(1st)[/color:31k03rp1]
    Confucius…..10.5…..12.69
    Hotel Du Cap…..17…..7.84
    Bet Cost £33.22

    26/04/08 16.30 Sandown Classic Trial (Group 3)
    Centennial…..2.34…..104.83…..(1st)[/color:31k03rp1]
    Endless Luck…..11…..22.3
    Latin Lad…..13.5…..18.17
    Bet Cost £145.30

    The Group 2 at Sandown (15.55) looks very open on trends, only Bahia Breeze could be eliminated.

    Daily Investment £178.55
    Daily Return £200
    ROI% 112%

    Overall Investment £806.23
    Overall Profit £663.80
    Overall ROI 82.33%[/color:31k03rp1]

    Next up is a Listed race at Bath on Tuesday.

    #161502
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    My mouse packed in yesterday making checking my trends data almost impossible, I’ve struggled through the 1000 Guineas today…..

    04/05/08 15.20 Newmarket 1000 Guineas (Group 1)
    Infallible…..5.5…..24.52
    Savethisdanceforme…..14.5…..9.30
    Royal Confidence…..130…..2.00
    Bet Cost £35.82

    Daily Investment £35.82
    Daily Return £-35.82
    ROI% -100%

    Overall Investment £842.05
    Overall Profit £627.98
    Overall ROI 74.58%[/color:32elrity]

    #162115
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    Just 1 for today…..

    07/05/08 Chester 2.45 Chester Cup (Class 2 Heritage Handicap)
    Double Banded…..5.4…..28.43
    Greenwich Meantime…..13.5…..11.37
    Black Rock…..13.5…..11.37
    Inchnadamph…..65…..2.36
    Bet Cost £53.53

    Daily Investment £53.53
    Daily Return £-53.53
    ROI% -100%

    Overall Investment £895.58
    Overall Profit £574.45
    Overall ROI 64.14%[/color:20b3qasv]

    #162302
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    1 race this afternoon…..

    08/05/08 Chester 2.45 Chester Vase (Group 3)

    Doctor Fremantle…..2.6…..90.91…..(1st)[/color:103fd9ku]
    Feared in Flight…..5.2…..45.45
    Bet Cost £136.36

    Daily Investment £136.36
    Daily Return £100
    ROI% 73.33%

    Overall Investment £1031.94
    Overall Profit £674.45
    Overall ROI 65.35%[/color:103fd9ku]

    #162481
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    2 races today…..

    09/05/08 Chester 2.15 Dee Stakes (Group 3)

    Achill Island…..3.25…..78.84
    Alexandros…..5.1…..50.24
    North Parade…..21…..12.20
    Latin Lad…..24…..10.68
    Midnight Muse…..60…..4.27
    Bet Cost £156.23

    09/05/08 Chester 2.45 Ormonde (Group 3)
    Bauer…..7.4…..16.99
    Numide…..32…..3.93
    Jadalee…..50…..2.51
    The Last Drop…..55…..2.29
    Bet Cost £25.72

    Daily Investment £181.95
    Daily Return £-181.95
    ROI% -100%

    Overall Investment £1213.89
    Overall Profit £492.50
    Overall ROI 40.57%[/color:1taf8y2t]

    #163391
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    2 races today

    14/05/08 York 2.40 Musidora Stakes (Group 3)
    Cape Amber…..13.5…..13.33
    Cruel Sea…..21…..8.57
    Dar Re Mi…..4.4…..40.89
    Sovereign’s Honour…..10.5…..17.14
    Bet Cost £79.93


    14/05/08 York 15.10 Duke of York Stakes (Group 2)

    Soldiers Tale…..15.5…..14.78
    War Artist…..20…..11.45
    Haatef…..9.2…..24.89
    Assertive…..8.6…..26.63…..(1st)[/color:189nfe0t]
    Sonny Red…..36…..6.36
    US Ranger…..5.1…..44.9
    Bet Cost £129.01

    Daily Investment £208.94
    Daily Return £20.07
    ROI% 9.6%

    Overall Investment £1422.83
    Overall Profit £512.57
    Overall ROI 36.02%[/color:189nfe0t]

    #164665
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Cav,

    Don;t give up!!! This was going well!!

    #165269
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    Had trouble with my database Aragorn (Microsoft :x ), should be back to normal next week.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 31 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.