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Okay- last year went well for me picking Cameron at 15s on the opening night with a saver on Steph. So I’ve just watched last night’s programme, deliberately avoiding the betting until after I’d finished watching it.
Somewhat disappointed ‘cos my 2 picks were Dan and Shell who’ve each been installed as favourites. Decided to go for Dan even though the price looks skinny with the saver on Shell, because the majority of the others are just so obnoxious I can’t see even the BB public voting for them!
My other thought is that Nadia might be a big price if the press take to her so I’ve requested 50s at BF just in case.
Also love this proviso taken from the Betfair male/female market:-
"FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS MARKET PLEASE NOTE THAT NADIA IS COUNTED AS FEMALE" :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
KM
Hi Kingmonkey, nice to see another Big Brother addict around here – tbere’s not enough of them, although I’m sure Daylight will be along shortly!
It’s difficult to have any confidence about any of them at this early stage due to all of the mallarkey they’ve probably got planned over the next few weeks. For example I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see at least two new faces join the house – possibly very close to the end. In any case, I’m not sure if the eviction system has been mentioned yet and it too could be completely different from previous years – i.e. the public may not have a say in some, if not all, of the evictions.
Anyway for what it’s worth here are my early thoughts on each housemate:
Ahmed<br>Seems a reasonably innofensive chap so far but in the pre-show gumf he did mention that he is extremely argumentative and wants to cause plenty of tension. Some of his opinions (homophope, for example) and his age will not endear him to the public and he is unlikely to last beyond halfway. Best price – 33/1
Daniel<br>Hasn’t said or done much as far as I’ve seen and appears to be rather aloof – he didn’t bother to welcome several of the housemates as they entered on Friday night. May grow on people as time goes on but at the moment looks very short in the betting for my liking. 6/1.
Emma<br>Loud-mouthed northern lass who probably goes around saying "I’m mad, me!" but obviously isn’t. Should provide plenty of comedy moments and has bonded well with several of the other housemates, she should hang around for quite a while. Possibly a shade too irritating to win, however.  7/1.
Jason<br>A laughable character. Obviously severely lacking in confidence if he thinks the only way to get noticed is by turning up in a posing pouch (padded, apparantly). A complete joke and should be at least fifty times his current price. 10/1.
Kitten<br>Racidal feminist lesbian who likes to think she will cause chaos but in all reality looks about as anarchic as a cream bun. Clearly mentally fragile and will probably walk out if not be kicked out. 40/1.
Marco<br>Mincing drama queen who makes former winner Brian Dowling look like Vinny Jones. Will have endeared himself to plenty after his laughable antics having entered the house first but equally as likely to have already irritated the s**t
out of everyone else. 10/1.Michelle<br>"Feisty", one-dimensional Geordie girl who appears to have annoyed at least a couple of her housemates for some reason or another. Found it necessary to mention that she loves "sex and porn" in her audition, which should get her some votes from News of the World readers. The novelty is unlikely to last long. 16/1.
Nadia<br>Would not look out of place on the LTA circuit and looks about as feminine as Brian Blessed in a frock. If Big Brother were so keen to but a transsexual in the house they could at least have put an interesting one in. Will only have a semblance of a chance if a national newspaper champions "her". 33/1.
Shell<br>Jolly-hockey-sticks Cate Blanchett lookalike. Looks to have plenty of steel behind that public school exterior and appears reasonably popular with the majority of housemates. Should be a calming force within the group and must have a major chance of scooping the prize. Problem is the bookies like her as well. 5/1.
Stuart<br>Extremely bland, good looking young chap who should get plenty of votes from the teenage girl watchers. Has a very high opinion of himself which may well get on the tits of his housemates from an early stage. May get nominated often but unlikely to get voted out and should stay for quite a while. 8/1.
Vanessa<br>Blonde, good looking and reasonably intelligent South African but hasn’t really done anything of note yet. However, is likely to be pretty popular both in and out of the house and should be still there well beyond halfway. 9/1
Victor<br>Re-writes the dictionary definition of the word arrogant but has stamped himself as a popular contestent within the house. Is probably seriously disliked by Jason who is clearly trying (and failing miserably) to be the centre of female attention. As long as his bravado doesn’t turn nasty and obnoxious he could go a very long way and 16/1 looks too big. 16/1.
Christ, I’ve got far too much time on my hands.
<br>
I feel sorry for those of you that actually like this garbage but I suppose someone has to like it (it’s the way of the world) , I know money can be made from this dross via betting but that’s not an excuse to watch such pathetic TV.
Jim
Yes it is dross, but it can be entertaining dross.
The fun comes in watching extremely unlikeable people desperately struggle for their 15 minutes of fame, blissfully unaware that 2 weeks after the show the media moves on and nobody gives a flying **** about them.
The show is no worse, or better, than most other programmes on mainstream TV, it dumbs down to the base elements and is just a cash cow for it’s makers. Channel 5 has made an entire broadcasting service out of it.Is it any worse than Sky’s football output, for example, or most of ITV’s programming?
And there is money to be made if you can guess the public’s likely mood.
Anyway, not seen last night’s yet, but still think Dan could be the man. Oh- and I’ve got my 50s on Nadia;)
KM
The fact that someone has even the inclination, let alone the time, to write a piece on each bloody contestant says you have far too much time on your hands ! Yes, the first 3 series were entertaining to some degree – but the idea is worn and the contestants complete muppets. I watched I think for about 5 minutes and remembered I had to go wax my balls – so I had to miss it sadly !
I think the whole thing is pathetic in the extreme. I can’t think of anything more tedious than watching a load of attention seeking morons scratching their and other people’s asses all bloody day. You’re right; it’s no worse than the other s**t
e on the TV at the moment which is why I hardly ever watch TV. (Apart from the racing of course…:biggrin: )I didn’t say I watched it for entertainment value – it’s about making money and these reality shows can be goldmines if you are prepared to take more than a passing glance at them.<br>
Quote: from LetsGetRacing on 2:02 am on May 31, 2004[br]I watched I think for about 5 minutes and remembered I had to go wax my balls ÂÂÂ
<br>And you think I’ve got too much time on my hands? :laugh:<br>
Same old, same old! Every year there is pots of gold given away but those who take it are critisized for watching it! :rolleyes:
I took notes on all on the first night as it usually proves a good indication, the first eviction already has Kitten stamped all over it. The second should be more interesting after the first nights task proved a great indication as who will voted for who. For the record HJ’s assesment is near on identical to mine barring a few difference of opinions.
I tend to work it out from who likes/dislikes who and work out possible time garenteed in the house should normal rules apply. So below is my first guess at how long people will hang around for the first five weeks.
Kitten – You won’t be needing your suitcase, week 1 or 2<br>Annoying cow who will not be tolerated by housemates or voting public but could cause one surprise before leaving with this weeks fake eviction. The voting public thought it funny to keep Alex in so they may do so again week 1?
Marco – should be gone by the 3rd eviction but could be 1st <br>Camp, annoying, bitchy and SO up for eviction 1st and second week!
Victor – Week 3<br>Arrogant won’t last long!
Nadia – Safe until week 4+<br>Not sure if the public will let her lead the men a merry dance or not (probably will) but it depends on when she lets the meat out the bag! <br>Certainty Likes: Victor
Michelle – Week 4+<br>Another good-time girl, once the annoying charactors go she’ll be gone then unless she has substance we have yet to see in the early stages.<br>Certainty Dislikes: Kitten<br>Certainty Likes: Victor
Ahmed – Safe until week 4<br>Playing a wise game in that for the first 4 weeks you stay low key then once the ‘in your face’ charactors have gone start playing the game (correct way in my opinion). But once his views come out he’ll be popular with larger lads but they don’t vote as it’s all young girls that pick up the phones for the first 7 weeks!
Jason – Safe until week 4+<br>Has a typicial Scottish sense of humour which is great but has the potential to upset the unstable bunch that is in there, should be safe but a bit of a wild card in my opinion.
Emma – Safe Until Week 5<br>Her dizzyness will bode her well with the public judged on previous years with Helen & Jade. Housemates unlikely to see her as a threat until she starts getting on their nerves as it is all quite clearly an act.
Daniel – Safe until week 6<br>My first impression was he was the first reasonably normal one in the house.<br>Certainty Dislikes: Marco<br>Certainty Likes: Jason
Stuart – Safe until last 5<br>Skateboard child but sure to be popular with the girls and voters.
Vanessa – Safe until last 5<br>Playing the not getting noticed game so safe for a while.
Shell – Safe until the final 4<br>Posh & normal. <br>Certainty Dislikes: Kitten
This weeks fake eviction should be interesting as Kitten will almost certainly be told to leave and once they find out it’s fake and she remains then there should be a lot of ship changing.
I’ve had bets to date:<br>74/1 on Ahmed to 2pts.<br>8/1 on Stuart to 3pts.
<br>
Some good write-ups here chaps (which makes a nice change from betfair!).
Personally, I’d urge caution. I don’t think following historic rules/trends is going to pay off this time (especially in the early weeks).
BB’s production team are determined to go down-market, and prolong a freak show atmosphere for as long as posisble.
I believe they will play with the rules non-stop. Their biggest concern is to stop the boring people hanging around simply because no-one nominates them. They will come up with ludicrous noimination rules (just as this week’s fake eviction) to ensure enough freaks survive.
My early approach is to back the freaks at big prices, and lay the normal ones at short prices.
My main problem is summoning enough enthusiasm to watch the damn thing.<br>
Yes it’s tosh but value can be had on this market more than any other.
Last year’s trends – Lay the initial favourite for every eviction, wait until the conspiracy theorists start up on the BF forum and back the initial fav at a greater price. <br>Back anyone who leaves the house for any period of time – They suddenly become interesting to the other housemates and also avoid eviction.
Tips for this year
The general public are desperate to see some shagging on this show and will surely keep in any housemates who look most likely to … <br>Back Stuart and Michelle who are being set up as possibles. Lay them later after the first five evictions.<br>
Do the public really want to see shagging? I certainly don’t! I find Michelle’s continual flirting annoying, and I think the other housemates do too, so I don’t think it willl be long before she’s nominated.
(Yes, I’m getting hooked against my better judgement!:biggrin: )
Some interesting alliances forming!
The ‘normal’ girls seem to be bonding and it’s strong at the moment but the public will break that up eventually.<br>The strongest and most genuine is Jason & Dan which imho will be the backbone to see these 2 go a long way in the competition as people will join.
Nadia & Emma & Vanessa & Shell<br>Victor & Jason & Daniel<br>Marco & Michelle<br>Michelle & Stuart <br>Ahmed<br>Kitten
Kitten and Ahmed seem exposed but Michelle, Marco and Stuart should be worried if the first 2 in this fake eviction are exempt from nominations?
Hoping for a stange result tonight in that the housemates find someone to hate more than kitten (Ahmed helping), unlikely but with previous years strange things happen last minute as Marco has people in there who hate him with a passion so 33/1 too tempting.
Ahmed has done me no favours as I was hoping he would keep his mouth shut for at least 2 weeks but has argued his way into nomination spotlight.
I’ve had bets to date:<br>Overall Winner<br>74/1 on Ahmed to 2pts.<br>8/1 on Stuart to 3pts.<br>8.2/1 on Jason to 5pts
Fake Eviction 04/06/04<br>33/1 on Marco  1.5pts to be fake evicted<br>Laid 1.48/1 Kitten to lose 2.4pts
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Great weekend as there is now a huge divide between the 11 and happy as Larry to have got 4/1 on Michelle to be the 2nd evictee with Corals.<br>Selective editing this week is show Michelle to be a tart and if it continues that 4/1 will look huge (although it already does in my opinion!).
Overall Winner <br>74/1 on Ahmed to 2pts. <br>8/1 on Stuart to 3pts. <br>8.2/1 on Jason to 5pts
Fake Eviction 04/06/04 <br>33/1 on Marco 1.5pts to be fake evicted – void<br>Laid 1.48/1 Kitten to lose 2.4pts – void
2nd Eviction<br>Michelle 4/1 5pts win<br>
Quote: from Burroughhill on 6:24 am on May 31, 2004[br]
I can’t think of anything more tedious than watching a load of attention seeking morons scratching their and other people’s asses all bloody day<br>
 the claw hand is getting quite an affliction with you, but your comments give me an identical rash. Hill on :clap:
I can only add to my earlier post with NOW PLEASE.THE MAN IS A DISGRACE.
Victor Out.:angry: Men like him make me wanna :puke:
Sorry,i realise that this isn’t the place for a rant about this guy,but if anyone was watching his[and others to a lesser extent]behaviour in the early hours they will understand my anger.Live pictures were cut while the situation was defused.
My early outsider Marco may still be a good bet of the bigger priced ones,he is sweet,caring,kind and could pick up a lot of granny votes[he’s got mine :biggrin: ]…look at Cameron last year,not an obvious winner by any means.I havn’t had a bet,just watching,it can be so bad that it is good :cool:
Not opposed to a bit of friction either,but the stuff that went on last night was out of order imo.
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