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Glenn,
Why does the price on Betfair HAVE to reflect sp’s?
Is it not possible that the layers are chasing losses on betfair after several winning favs causing them to be overpriced.
Also , everyone knows my take on this, everyman for himself dog eat dog,
If the offices want £2K @ 7/4 when i’m offering 2/1 and doing the crown jewels on the day, I dont give a **** what price betfair are, like all greedy on-course bookies i’ve gotta play and play again, shame they all won,
late news, just heard from pat at kempton, got it back, games easy.
I noticed Barry, one greedy bookmaker was working to a far greater percentage than his colleagues on the Goodwood Cup this year. Yet punters were still piling in to bet with him.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingCan’t see how you can say it was blatant price rigging Glenn.
That is one possible explanation.
Mark
Value Is EverythingGingertipster,
Let me translate p70 of today’s Racing Post for you.
[i:1wd3klj1]Efisio Princess…£900-400, £1000-500 etc, including office money [op7/4 after 15/8, 2/1 and 9/4 in places] 6/4f
All Other Horses in 3.40 no noteworthy bets placed yet we have 3/1(op 4/1), 15/2 (op10/1) 10/1 (op14/1) etc etc
Total SP Percent 132%[/i:1wd3klj1]
The first thing to note is that bookies were going 9/4 and 2/1 about Efisio Princess but this show wasn’t relayed to the shops by the bookie-owned SIS. Instead they waited until it was 7/4.
The words ‘office money’ means money from the Big Bookies. You will notice that this is pretty much all the money that was about on the race. That’s right – the on-course bookies’ main customer is off-course firms who are more interested in getting SPs as low as possible than striking good bets.
What effetct does this have on prices? Well it means they only go in. Any bookie that doesn’t play ball and shorten up (and keep short) a horse that has had office money for it won’t be seeing much office money in future. The on-course bookies get to lay bets in reasonable size to the offices at awful prices, the offices get those prices returned and the punters lose out.
Look at the final SP percent and compare to the opening prices 114% v 132% and see what is happening.
Then look at the 2.40. No office money on Shiwawa, so the on-course books revert to screen staring mode and chase out the machine. If office money had come for the horse it would have started no bigger than 5/4. Where was the ‘indpendence of thought’ in that race? When on-course bookies say they are ‘taking a view’ what they really mean is that they’ve taken a back hander and aren’t allowed to copy the machine.
Gingertipster,
Let me translate p70 of today’s Racing Post for you.
[i:12givwu6]Efisio Princess…£900-400, £1000-500 etc, including office money [op7/4 after 15/8, 2/1 and 9/4 in places] 6/4f
All Other Horses in 3.40 no noteworthy bets placed yet we have 3/1(op 4/1), 15/2 (op10/1) 10/1 (op14/1) etc etc
Total SP Percent 132%[/i:12givwu6]
The first thing to note is that bookies were going 9/4 and 2/1 about Efisio Princess but this show wasn’t relayed to the shops by the bookie-owned SIS. Instead they waited until it was 7/4.
The words ‘office money’ means money from the Big Bookies. You will notice that this is pretty much all the money that was about on the race. That’s right – the on-course bookies’ main customer is off-course firms who are more interested in getting SPs as low as possible than striking good bets.
What effetct does this have on prices? Well it means they only go in. Any bookie that doesn’t play ball and shorten up (and keep short) a horse that has had office money for it won’t be seeing much office money in future. The on-course bookies get to lay bets in reasonable size to the offices at awful prices, the offices get those prices returned and the punters lose out.
Look at the final SP percent and compare to the opening prices 114% v 132% and see what is happening.
Then look at the 2.40. No office money on Shiwawa, so the on-course books revert to screen staring mode and chase out the machine. If office money had come for the horse it would have started no bigger than 5/4. Where was the ‘indpendence of thought’ in that race? When on-course bookies say they are ‘taking a view’ what they really mean is that they’ve taken a back hander and aren’t allowed to copy the machine.
Bit patronising Glenn isn’t it?
How do you know the price of EP was not relayed to the shops?
And even if it was it does not mean anything.Is it not possible that someone saw the first bookmaker to price up go a price which they considered far too big. So the 9/4 is taken and the bookie shortens it. With only one bookie going up at this point, this is too soon for the First Show to be produced. But (if big enough) would still be listed as a bet by the Racing Post.
When did the office money come in?
As I have already said, if it was late and the on course bookmakers only had time to bring in those backed, without having time to push out those not backed. Then the SP percentage could well be greater than First Show.
And as Barry has intimated the bookies will bet to the highest percentage they can get away with. In an uncompetitive card that will be quite high.
There does not have to be big bets for a price to contract, especially at small courses in poor races, where not much is bet. The percentage of money effects the book.
Do you really believe there would be enough money bet on this poor race to be worth off course bookmakers doing as you say.
I think the last bit of your post is uncalled for, you do not KNOW bookies are taking back handers etc.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingWas there anyone at Southwell yesterday who could comment on this horse’s general demenour and was there a inspector at the post prior to the off ?
The thing that seems quite strange is that the Racing Post are reporting that the horse is still clinically distressed now; over 24hrs after the race, but nobody appears to have detected anything beforehand? This seems strange to me.
I know that bets were being placed by the offices of £650-£400 when £750-£300 was freely available. Looks very much to me like those bets included a ‘gift’ of £100 in them. I would suggest these gifts dry up for anyone that doesn’t do what’s expected of them.
That’s a backhander by my books.
Nothing personal Ginger but that last post of yours is naive beyond belief.
In what way Cav?
I am not saying this is what happened, just saying it is possible. Where as Glenn seems certain back handers were involved.
Either way both on and off course bookmakers don’t come out of it very well.
I would not bet in such poor racing anyway, or when percentages were like they were.
Mark
Value Is EverythingIn many ways, I admire your efforts, Ginger Mark, but, imo,
you are way out of touch with what really goes on in the Ring.In my experience, the whole thing is governed by the "Machine" and the Big3 shop reps who target only those books that are in the quorum and effect SP – their only concern.
It’s all a bit of an insider merry-go-round, imo.I wasn’t at Southwell that day, but I very much doubt if on-course arbers ( who should be banned , imo) were able to get course info back to the Machine in time to cause this drift.
Btw, which betting patterns are being investigated by the "authorities"? I’d guess that it’s those of the unlicensed layers on the Exchanges.
Anyway, perhaps another respected and knowledgable forumite, Maxilon, was present on-course that day and can enlighten us?
In many ways, I admire your efforts, Ginger Mark, but, imo,
you are way out of touch with what really goes on in the Ring.In my experience, the whole thing is governed by the "Machine" and the Big3 shop reps who target only those books that are in the quorum and effect SP – their only concern.
It’s all a bit of an insider merry-go-round, imo.An informed opinion Sean…Ginge take note.
In many ways, I admire your efforts, Ginger Mark, but, imo,
you are way out of touch with what really goes on in the Ring.In my experience, the whole thing is governed by the "Machine" and the Big3 shop reps who target only those books that are in the quorum and effect SP – their only concern.
It’s all a bit of an insider merry-go-round, imo.I wasn’t at Southwell that day, but I very much doubt if on-course arbers ( who should be banned , imo) were able to get course info back to the Machine in time to cause this drift.
Btw, which betting patterns are being investigated by the "authorities"? I’d guess that it’s those of the unlicensed layers on the Exchanges.
Anyway, perhaps another respected and knowledgable forumite, Maxilon, was present on-course that day and can enlighten us?
The exchanges are a big part of what happens in the ring, of course. But they are not the only part. There are other influences.
Of course off course bookies target those on course that effect SP’s. Is there anything illegal in that? It does not mean there are backhanders.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI don’t think Crack Away Jack’s drift and subsequent performance (which was hardly poor) can be in any way compared to that of Shiwawa’s yesterday, Alan.
You make my point, in that you link the drift with the subsequent performance. Consider the two separately and isn’t it possible that the Southwell drift was also due to punters taking a view on the prices.
It’s just that at Southwell, the action is compressed into a shorter time frame.Alan is right. I could be an unfortunate coincidence at Southwell – some lumpy punters taking a view against Shiwawa and the subsequent dismal performance just "one of those things’. The authorities definitey need to take a look at who was laying it though…
http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/news.s … id=1004137
Horse is still clinically distressed, apparently.
" Of course off course bookies target those on course that effect SP’s. Is there anything illegal in that? It does not mean there are backhanders.
Mark".
Perhaps you’re missing the point I was trying to make, Ginger? My view is that you are placing undue emphasis on the "percentages".
I think the reality is that Big3 course reps do what they must to alleviate any shop liabilities based on SP; they don’t even consider course percentages, which are not their main concern.
Rather, Head Office works out overall liability and instructs the rep to take action to shorten one or more as necessary. I very much doubt that the major driving force here is form study, but not to worry.The other factor, pushing and pulling at prices, is those folk who are laying on the Exchanges. My personal view is that these guys are probably NOT operating mainly on the basis of past performance of the animals in question.
I know you don’t agree, and I don’t expect you to change your mind.
Btw, I like your system thread; keep up the good work!
Btw, I think I should have written
" affect" SP, rather than "effect" SP, though I don’t suppose that matters much." Of course off course bookies target those on course that effect SP’s. Is there anything illegal in that? It does not mean there are backhanders.
Mark".
Perhaps you’re missing the point I was trying to make, Ginger? My view is that you are placing undue emphasis on the "percentages".
I think the reality is that Big3 course reps do what they must to alleviate any shop liabilities based on SP; they don’t even consider course percentages, which are not their main concern.
Rather, Head Office works out overall liability and instructs the rep to take action to shorten one or more as necessary. I very much doubt that the major driving force here is form study, but not to worry.The other factor, pushing and pulling at prices, is those folk who are laying on the Exchanges. My personal view is that these guys are probably NOT operating mainly on the basis of past performance of the animals in question.
I know you don’t agree, and I don’t expect you to change your mind.
Btw, I like your system thread; keep up the good work!
Sean,
I really do not think we are far apart on this.
I agree, liabilities are their main concern. But by putting office money in late they can drive up the over round which means SP’s are artificially low, not having to pay out as much. Agree, form study has nothing to do with this.You do not think layers on the exchanges are interested in form? For what reason?
Mark
Value Is Everything
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