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Not at all Zippy nothing wrong with covering your backside a bit………but it does show a lack of confidence cos you know I am right and the Duc’s the one to be on
Such a shame Blazing Bailey does not wear blinkers. With the King yard in even better form than Henderson now, he would’ve been the bet in this. However now:
Am in two minds about Punchestowns 11/4, not sure he’ll stay. Allowed for that in my working out but he still comes out value in my 100% book. (5/2)
Stable companion Duc De Regniere 7/2 might be flattered by the slowly run race against more staying types at Newbury. But no doubting his potential, another possible improver. (3/1)
Blazing Bailey 11/2 should improve on the Newbury run, slow pace totally against him there. Don’t think he’ll be at his best without the bins though. (5/1)
Mobaasher 20/1 was held up in a slowly run race there and so could yet do better. But seems difficult to win with judging by the Wetherby effort. Seems a bad win bet anyway. (15/1)
Pettifour 10/1I thought could improve in to a top class hurdler. Disappointed at Newbury, lacked pace. Stable now in nowhere near such good form. (8/1)
Hills Of Aran 400/1looks outclassed. (100/1)
One Gulp 20/1seemed to improve on reappearance but that was against mares, needs to up her game again. Stable in good form though. Could get a place if a few disappoint. (14/1)
Elusive Dream 10/1 finished just behind Chomba Womba and Crack Away Jack when the Nicholls band wagon was rolling. I am not convinced he is a true stayer but this will tell us more. Could yet improve but needs to. (15/2)
Seebald 40/1ran well to win a 2 1/2 mile handicap under a big weight on heavy ground last time but that does not look good enough and now looks exposed at that trip. Doubtful this longer trip will suit. (25/1)
Atamane 40/1 is a decent hurdler in France but probably not up to this standard. Came out of his last run as a few pounds superior to Millenium Royal. (22/1)
Lough Derg 25/1 Though a return to 3m may help, does not seem in the same frame of mind this season. (imo) Over raced last season and that has left a mark on his attitude. Probably won’t get his own way up front with Pettifour around either. (18/1)
Mark
Value Is EverythingNot at all Zippy nothing wrong with covering your backside a bit………but it does show a lack of confidence cos you know I am right and the Duc’s the one to be on
If there is a God, he/she/it must make sure I don’t get out-tipstered by the one and only Fist!!!!!???
Zip
My three at the prices would be Punchestowns 7/2 , Petitfour 15/2 and Atamane 25-1
I’ve got the same first two as you, and in the same order. On class alone and his good heart throughout much of 2008 I’ve got Blazing Bailey on the shortlist, too, albeit as a place lay rather than a win. I think there are enough credible rivals to push him out of the frame if his occasional habit of kicking the odd flight out of the way resurfaces. Conversely, though, if we have a properly-run 3m race this time, as well we should with Lough Derg in opposition, he should be one of the main beneficiaries.
The dirge at Newbury last time compromised him, Pettifour and Mobaasher to a large degree, and both he and Pettifour are 8lb better off for 12.25l and 8.25l defeats respectively. I expect that to be made to count in a properly-run affair. Mobaasher is 4lb better off for a 5l beating, but his inability to convert more than two out of 12 hurdles starts into wins is hardly appealing.
Atamane has effectiveness to prove over non-brush hurdles (unless they were using UK-style hurdles when he won in Italy last year), and whilst he has raced on ground this slow on the Flat, it’s still faster than anything he’s tried when jumping. He may well answer both questions affirmatively, though his litter of mistakes even in victory at Auteuil last time are a little off-putting.
The improved performance to win a Grade 2 there last time seemed to coincide with a switch to front-running tactics. As mentioned above, Lough Derg is likely to want to boss it from the front himself, so there’s an issue to my mind over whether Atamane takes him on to the detriment of both, or drops in behind to the detriment of himself.
I’d still like to see Atamane run a big race, win, lose or draw, though, as much to encourage the likes of Mario Hofer to visit these shores a little more often. Maybe AngloGerman can have a word…
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Atamane has effectiveness to prove over non-brush hurdles (unless they were using UK-style hurdles when he won in Italy last year), and whilst he has raced on ground this slow on the Flat, it’s still faster than anything he’s tried when jumping. He may well answer both questions affirmatively, though his litter of mistakes even in victory at Auteuil last time are a little off-putting.
Well Jeremy, this is a video of his win in Rome:
http://www.ippica.biz/1/14_sch/14_cor_r … C&tit=Roma[ITA]%20-%20Premio%20Antonio%20Ceciarelli-ex%20Sordello&vid=1
They look like brush hurdles to me. Atamane is in all white colours with pom pom on cap in this (different to the usual red and blue colours of Eckhard Sauren), and he’s kept towards to back by jockey Dirk Fuhrmann, but then makes excellent progress down the back straight and comes away an easy winner.
I’d still like to see Atamane run a big race, win, lose or draw, though, as much to encourage the likes of Mario Hofer to visit these shores a little more often. Maybe AngloGerman can have a word…
Funny enough Jeremy, I was talking about this very subject to Heinz, the box driver at Sandown on Tingle Creek day. I’m not sure, but Heinz may well be bringing Atamane over to Ascot. Anyway, Heinz and I agreed that there are some (not many, but some) German horses that would be good enough to bring over to England, but I do know that at least one trainer wouldn’t bring their horses over due to a) the different fences and b) the language barrier. I can’t do much about the fences, but I suggested to Heinz that maybe I should offer my services as an interpreter for those German trainers wanting to visit these shores, and it’s something I’m looking to be setting up in the new year when time allows.
We were hoping that, if Flipper ran well in the TC, that maybe it would act as a catalyst for German trainers to bring more horses the the UK. Certainly at the moment, just about every meeting in Deauville has some form of German representation.
Darren – AngloGerman
________________________________________‘The Hungarian’s going hell for leather’ – Jim McGrath
Well Jeremy, this is a video of his win in Rome:
http://www.ippica.biz/1/14_sch/14_cor_r … C&tit=Roma[ITA]%20-%20Premio%20Antonio%20Ceciarelli-ex%20Sordello&vid=1
He certainly finished out that race with some purpose Darren, he did look to finish with a full tank though so I would imagine ground and pace would have been very different to tomorrow, but I’d still be interested n backing him e/w at 25s as I’d still expect him to run well if help up in a testing race. Lovely horse on breeding IMO.
Well im hoping duc de regniere can win well so i can lay off the £500 at 16/1 i got after his last win
I am far from convinced Punchestown is anything special but have a huge regard for the AP ridden Duc De Regniere who Nicky seems to have been giving the tougher tasks to in the past and he has done very well with.
Don’t see how you can come up with that assessment, Fists.
Duc Du Regniere is basically a failed chaser, who may eventually have come good upped in trip over hurdles (though I think the form of the Long Distance Hurdle is potentially fragile myself).
Punchestowns may not have run in graded company as yet, but running him under top-weight in a Cheltenham handicap is hardly giving the horse an easy time, and the form was been more than adequately franked since.
You wouldn’t be preferring DDR simply by dint of the fact that AP McCoy rides today, because – other than his last outing – it’s difficult to find anything else in his race-history to have a “huge regard” for.
No Grassy but I am happy AP is riding but I backed Duc a few weeks back and stated I thought he would turn out to be the one.
PTowns was an after thought by Nicky for this which doesn’t inspire confidence and as I say Duc is theone Nicky has been setting the tougher tasks to.plus basically he’s a nice horse and looks progressing.
Other than the above nutty bet I am taking a watching brief on this one.I think it will be a great race with several who could win it. ED who I believe was your choice included.
I feel today is the day for pettifour to shine and ill learn today if my antepost thoughts for chelt are wrong.TBH i wasnt a big pettifour fan till i saw him oubattle mobasheer at weatherby and straight away thought world hurdle and this horse wants to win races!.
I was dissapointed wen he got turned over last time out and did my dough.But just feel with a 8lb pull off level weights and the pace off the race will be different giving pettifour not as much time to think about his hurdling hopefully cutting out his mistakes that he made last time out!
Was just thinking where does the pace in the race come from?.i hope lough derg does make the running and make it a true test and tests the stamina doubts in Both henderson horses i feel that would be the best way to get them two beat and lough dergs best chance off placing becuase no pace it has no chance and will be done for toe (may as well stayed at home),But wen it placed in this race i think the second time it didnt make the running!.Does everyone think LD is a definate front runner in this and will put the pace to the race?.Anyway decent bet for me today on Pettifour hopefully get my money back on the horse i lost last time with sum profit .If he gets well beaten today will hold my hands up and say i was wrong about the horse just hope i arent!
I should think so.
Lough Derg will make the running. Ascot suits the front runners and im sure that Tom Scuadmore will make sure that he tries to steal the race from the from again, hoping that the performance will be reminiscent of that in last years’ race.
Im sure the field this year, wont let him get so far infront as his rivals did last year.
I am very sweet on Blazing Baileys in today’s race. Pettifour just may not be top class while I share Grasshoppers reservations about Duc De Regniere. Both those two finished in front of BB last time but BB’s pattern is that of improving through his first three/four races each season (last season ratings first three runs 134, 143, 162 – season before first 4 runs 148, 150, 150, 162 – season before that 52,116,118,150). He comes to this off 73,155 and any improvement on the 155, with an 8lb pull with Duc De Regniere will see him in the firing line.
Punchestowns is an obvious potential fly in the ointment but he has a lot more to prove than BB so, at the prices, I think Blazing Baileys is the one to be on.Intriguing contest though.
Punchestowns is the one.
Still improving and come Cheltenham will be the one to beat in the World Hurdle. Distance and ground shouldn’t be a problem today.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Such a shame Blazing Bailey does not wear blinkers. With the King yard in even better form than Henderson now, he would’ve been the bet in this. However now:
Surely the only question in your mind should be is he good enough?
Alan King did experiment with them but has clearly decided they made no difference. They may even have been repsonsible for him hanging badly at Aintree.
The fact is he dropped them and the horse easily won a flat race without them and he ran as straight as a dye.
Do you think he would send him for 100,000 pounds race without them if he thought they could help him win?
As far as his form is concerned Nicky is still maintaining a 27+ % strike rate for the entire season where as Alan King is 19% increasing to 24 % recently.A couple of good weeks granted but on average along way to go yet.
I’m in the Blazing Bailey camp here also. The proven horse. If he runs to his best they will all have to go some to beat him. Punchestowns impressive last time but now being seriously hyped, question marks over the trip for him and whether he’s up to this class, he shouldn’t be favourite IMO. Duc De Reniere shocked even his connections last time when he won a strangely run race so you have to question how good he really is. Mobassher is a very difficult ride and doesn’t seemingly like winning, Pettifour may excel off a fast pace but as yet that is unproven.
6/1 Blazing Bailey is far too big.
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