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The world hurdle thread on the cheltenham section is 7 pages long and we are 3 days from the long walk with very good looking field turning out, but no thread. Am hoping punchestowns runs, so we can see if he really is that good.
Opinions?
Punchestowns looked really good giving lumps of weight away at Cheltenham but this is obviously a much stiffer test. I like Serabad alot but again this is a much stiffer test than his run at Aintree, I hope Blazing Bailey can but in a better performance than last time. I think my money will be on Punchestowns, if Duc De Regniere is as good as everyone thinks he will be really hard to beat. What will Geraghty choose, will McCoy be retianed for Franchoek after giving DDR a peach last time?
I’m convinced Duc De Regniere is by far the better horse. He better be or my AP Chelt bet on him is up the spout
He’s the one Nicky has been depending on more and if he wins on Saturday he will disprove the theory that he only won because of a slow pace last time out……..this should be a stepping stone to the real thing for him
I like Pettitfour in this. A massive improver, lightly raced, has won a Grade 1 at the trip already, soft ground will be fine and ran really well conceding weight at Newbury the last day. 7/1 looks a decent price.
Just one word:
A-T-A-M-A-N-E!!!!
Darren – AngloGerman
________________________________________‘The Hungarian’s going hell for leather’ – Jim McGrath
Level weights and the expectation that blinkers will be re-applied mean Blazing Bailey is my pick although I will hold off until Saturday for backing him as the Ascot website is reporting that the track is still ‘soft’ around Swinley Bottom and he’s shown his very best form on good ground. BBC are reporting no rain between now and then so hopefully things will improve on that front.
I like Pettitfour in this. A massive improver, lightly raced, has won a Grade 1 at the trip already, soft ground will be fine and ran really well conceding weight at Newbury the last day. 7/1 looks a decent price.
I’d agree Cav, I was surprised to see him beaten last time, as there was huge money for him on the day and in the world hurdle market in the run up. I’d say that a few people were spitting their champers out, but a more even pace may see an improve performance.
I find punchestowns very exciting, there has been so much money on him for the world hurdle of late and these big henderson antepost plunges have been looking pretty good of late, with aigle d’or in the greatwood and Zaynar for the triumph prior to his easy win today. Took 12-1 on him for cheltenham a while back and am undecided as to whether to back him on saturday.
AngloGerman Posted: 17 Dec 2008 21:59 Post subject:
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Just one word:
A-T-A-M-A-N-E!!!!
Now this oen I find really intriguing for an e/w Darren, young horse, really like his breeding (sadlers wells offshoot sire and surumu mare, like hurricane run and helium), and he’s shown a decent level of form in france. You sound pretty confident there, care to expand?
I hope Darren doesn’t mind me expanding on Atamane.
Horse in form Bulwark – was 2nd in one of France’s top staying hurdle’s early last month (Prix D’Automne) to a top horse in Monoalco (i’m on at 150’s for the World Hurdle) and then went on to beat Jousselin runner-up Musica Bella in a 2m 5 1/2f race back at Auteuil. Also has good form which ties in with the best French chasers around – Remember Rose and the best hurdlers – Grande Haya and Chestnut Charlie amongst others.
Presume that Xavier Hondier rides again too which is another plus point as they have a decent record in the big races, even if Atamane’s wins to runs record isn’t great.
Martin
I think Lough Derg is a great each-way bet.
I know he was gifted the race last year, but he always runs way above himself at Ascot. Although he won’t be given too much rope this time for sure, I could see him having a lot of them off the bridle on the home turn.
I’ve opted for the falsely run race category for the Newbury staying hurdle.
I don’t think it will stand the test of time.
I think on decent ground Blazing Bailey will be tough to beat.
Duc De Regniere has always been a talented horse and they are my two against the field.I hope Darren doesn’t mind me expanding on Atamane.
Horse in form Bulwark – was 2nd in one of France’s top staying hurdle’s early last month (Prix D’Automne) to a top horse in Monoalco (i’m on at 150’s for the World Hurdle) and then went on to beat Jousselin runner-up Musica Bella in a 2m 5 1/2f race back at Auteuil. Also has good form which ties in with the best French chasers around – Remember Rose and the best hurdlers – Grande Haya and Chestnut Charlie amongst others.
Presume that Xavier Hondier rides again too which is another plus point as they have a decent record in the big races, even if Atamane’s wins to runs record isn’t great.
Martin
The German website GOL reported two days ago that Jamie Moore will be riding. Not sure whether that still stands but makes sense to me. Hondier is not a jockey I’d have riding in the UK.
I hope Darren doesn’t mind me expanding on Atamane.
Horse in form Bulwark – was 2nd in one of France’s top staying hurdle’s early last month (Prix D’Automne) to a top horse in Monoalco (i’m on at 150’s for the World Hurdle) and then went on to beat Jousselin runner-up Musica Bella in a 2m 5 1/2f race back at Auteuil. Also has good form which ties in with the best French chasers around – Remember Rose and the best hurdlers – Grande Haya and Chestnut Charlie amongst others.
Presume that Xavier Hondier rides again too which is another plus point as they have a decent record in the big races, even if Atamane’s wins to runs record isn’t great.
Martin
Excellent write up Martin – apologies for not replying sooner, but I’ve just got back from Ludlow – I’ve had to write two reports and send some photos – I’m cream crackered! And we didn’t win! Regarding jockey bookings, well none other than Jamie Moore is riding (we did have a slight ‘influence’ on that one!). Hopefully, he’ll get better riding instructions this time around!! As regards Atamane, well, he had reasonable form on the flat in Germany including 5th in the 2006 German St Leger, however my old horse Weststern did beat him twice on the flat last year. If you looked at Atamanes bare flat form, you would say he would not probably be good enough, but his form over hurdles in Italy and France has been pretty good wthough being staggering. However, his last two runs have propelled him to the top of the tree, especially as Doumens Millenium Royal finished 3rd in the Olry Roederer last time out (the race where Musica Bella was second).
Atamane is a horse I’ve seen for a couple of years, and never though he was much more that Listed class. However, his last two races in France have changed everything, and if he takes to the English hurdles, he could be very decent. I’m on at 25-1.
Darren – AngloGerman
________________________________________‘The Hungarian’s going hell for leather’ – Jim McGrath
Martin, much as I’m an advocate of French Jumps racing, I do think you’ve shown a tendency to over-rate some of their horses.
I have Atamane down as a low-140’s beast at his very best, and cannot have him landing any kind of blow in this company. His current price is an accurate reflection of his chance, imo.
In fairness you’re probably right with regards to overating some of their horses. I think my love affair with Remember Rose gets in the way of things a bit – he’s probs a mid 160’s horse in reality and Monoalco etc. similar.
I do however think that the RPR’s aren’t a true reflection of how good the French horses are. Despite the varying conditions we regularly see French trained horses beating the British and Irish horses yet when we try sending horses over the channel (most notably Willie Mullins) many of the top horses fall short.
If there’s a falsely run race – slow pace etc. I think the majority of French horses will have a greater turn of foot than their British/Irish bred counterparts. Looking at RR mind I wonder if it’s more down to upbringing given that he’s an out and out Irish bred yet has been competing with the best since he was 4.
I guess my point with many foreign trained jumpers is that we (the British and Irish) have this affiliation with jumping and that the prospect of anyone having anything better is proposterous hence the 140 rated horses like River Liane (for want of a better example) are 14/1 or so for such big races yet Atamane (a similar type, classy and an improving young horse) are nearly 10 points bigger.
Is this the best renewal of this race for some years? A better one doesnt spring to mind… Maybe talking more in terms of fascianation here rather than quality…which is yet to be confimred
Punchestown really looks the part to me. Yes that isnt expressed in pounds shillings and anorak ratings,.
Its a race to watch. I would steer clear of anything totally unexposed because the leading contenders seem to have some quality about them. Also Lough derg would not interest me at all. Course form yes, stable form…hmmmm. and not every race is going to be run to suit, no matter where its held
I am far from convinced Punchestown is anything special but have a huge regard for the AP ridden Duc De Regniere who Nicky seems to have been giving the tougher tasks to in the past and he has done very well with.
I seldom have crazy bets but Nicky’s horses are running out of their skins and he could have another fantastic day so for fun I’m having go…1 My Petra X 2 Trabolgan and Oedipe X 2 Binocular and Chomba Womba X 2 Duc De Regniere and Punchestown X 2 Aigle D’or and Sentry Duty 16 x 2 pts accies could buy a few beers
Of all the big races on Saturday, I like this one punting-wise. Guess I’m willing to put my faith in this improver more than trying to pick my way through the Ladbroke..lazy Zippy.
I feel Punchestown will prove a potential superstar and beat this quality field.
Bit cowardly, but I’d do him EW even at 7/2!
Zip
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