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Good race here to look forward to, plenty in with a chance and an abundance of runners. 17 at the moment.
Adaay deserves his favouritism and can be backed each way at 13/2, just to show how open this race is. Gordon Lord Byron loves Haydock but comes into this race after a disappointing effort at the Curragh.
Last years winner G Force has struggled this year and Sole Power looks vulnerable once again over this trip.
Roger Varian is testing the sprinting waters with Belardo and Mattmu has had an extremely consistent 2015.
Henry Candy and Charlie Hills both try their hand with impressive handicap winners Twilight Son and Magical Memory but they will have to step up a huge amount to be involved, although that is entirely possible.
The rest have cases to be respected as well, including a personal favourite of mine Danzeno. He has only ran thrice since the turn of the year and needless to say his latest effort just under two months ago was his best.
He finished 2 lengths behind Charlie Hills’s sprint sensation Muharrar at Newmarket and that was after one of his tardy starts, a habit he needs to break if he is to compete at this level.Plenty to mull over and I’m sure everyone has a quiet confidence in someone here. Danzeno for me each way at 15/2. Please break from the stalls well kid.
Edit: I have just realised there is a thread for this race that hadn’t been commented on since last week. Apologies
DANZENO 25/1
1st race in a group one in july cup did ok with current fav going to race in France and then here think he put in a bad run with season he had.While the selection not had much races this year be fresher to.
My early thought is that Gordon Lord Byron is worth a go at 16/1 for this in the hope that it comes up soft.
He is racing over in Ireland at 7f this weekend but he has such a good record at Haydock and his last three runs in this race read 2-1-2
He’ll need the mud to slow some of the faster ones down but we are probably due one of these big meetings coming up softer after the lightning fast conditions so far at these big festivals.
A win this weekend may see him contract in price and he just appeals to me as his form in the race is so rock solid, beating Slade Power and being runner up to Society Rock and G Force.
Gordon Lord Byron 16/1 each-way (Let the rain commence
)Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looks like my suspicions were correct and Muhaarar will swerve this race. Gordon Lord Byron actually hit 20/1 after being beaten by Home Of The Brave. I am hoping that Saturday will show that to be no disgrace as Hugo Palmer’s horse contests the Hungerford.
Gordon Lord Byron is very much on target for Haydock and the penny has finally dropped with the backers. He’s best priced 9/1 now and if it rains he’ll start a bit shorter yet.
I think he may well be a warmish favourite if conditions suit and am happy with my advice at 16/1. I still think 9/1 is worth taking.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
DANZENO 25/1
1st race in a group one in july cup did ok with current fav going to race in France and then here think he put in a bad run with season he had.While the selection not had much races this year be fresher to.
Danzeno is a best priced 12/1 now Darren, and as low as 7/1.
Good luck with him at 25/1, well picked out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gordon Lord Byron is crazy good value for this race at 12/1.
Bookmakers have totally overreacted to him being beaten favourite at the Curragh yesterday. I was surprised he was as low as 13/8f yesterday, because the ground was very fast and that’s just not his forte.
At Haydock, with softer going he will be a totally different proposition and I’ll be surprised if he can’t pick up a top 3 finish at least and with 1/4 odds available at 12/1 he’s well worth a go. The “favourite” Undrafted is only quoted by one firm, so that is ominous and Muhaarar is out of the betting completely now.
We know that Limato probably won’t run if it does rain and neither will Muthmir, who seems just one of a seemingly endless list of good horses whom it has been decided won’t run on softish conditions ever again.
G Force flopped last year in this and has been out of sorts all year, Waady is better at 5f, as is Sole Power. Tiggy Wiggy and Anthem Alexander seem to have left their form back in 2014 and need Marty McFly and a Delorean car to get back there.
Danzeno, Adaay, Tropics and Mattmu are the ones I am expecting to form the biggest dangers but Gordon Lord Byron’s record in the race is superb and pushing him out to 12/1 was madness in my opinion. Paddy Power only go 6/1 and seem much more on the ball. Anything more than 8/1 is certainly overpriced I believe.
Gordon Lord Byron 12/1 each-way 1/4 odds 1-2-3 (Racebets) (Horses for courses)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
“G Force flopped last year in this”??? Didn’t he win it?
Apart from that I tend to agree with your analysis – GLB looks a good shout.“G Force flopped last year in this”??? Didn’t he win it?
Apart from that I tend to agree with your analysis – GLB looks a good shout.Whoops, sorry, you are correct there. I had a lapse of thought process there. G Force did build on his Nunthorpe run and go on to win the Sprint Cup. I should have known, as I put him up at 12/1 for that race on the forum. It was the later race on Champions Day on heavy ground where G Force flopped and turned a 3/4 length win from Gordon Lord Byron into a thumping defeat at the hands of the same horse.
G Force seems totally lost since then and even if he got back to his best he would be 2lbs worse in this year with Gordon Lord Byron. Apologies for the confusion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Bloody good prices taken by Darren and Steve. Good luck to both of you. Looks a very open race.
At today’s prices I’m against Danzeno; too often slowly away and gives the impression difficult to win with these days.
Aaday improved when upped in trip to win the Hungerford, but now comes back to 6f.
I like Gordon Lord Byron, record both at Haydock and with give in the ground impressive. Agree with Steve, 9/1 still looks good.
Mattmu ran well to be placed in Nunthorpe, although some way behind the first two there. Same price of the Irish horse and imo not as good a chance.
Would’ve been very interested in Candy’s improving handicapper Twilight Son had it been firmer.
Ditto Magical Memory; stable doesn’t seem in as good form as when he won the Stewards Cup either.
On the other hand, Waady‘s trainer is in good form and has some soft ground winning form. Needs to prove himself at the trip, but has been far from stopping at 5f. At around 14/1 well worth taking a chance on the distance.
Horses for courses/time of year? May be. But last year’s winner G Force hasn’t just been below form, he’s been well below.
Belardo has his ground, but is he fast enough and/or good enough?
Tiggy Wiggy isn’t very big and may not have trained on. Worth keeping an eye on the betting. If she has been showing the old sparkle at home won’t have an SP as big as early odds; but that’s a big IF.
Eastern Impact improved on firmer ground since, but at the time of his good-soft win was his best performance. Had Danzeno two necks back in 5th when 1 3/4 lengths 3rd in July Cup penultimate start. Latter lost ground at start, but that’s Danzeno for you. Can’t see why there should be that much between the two in the betting. 28/1 looks massive on betfair!
Sole Power is top class, but time seems to be catching up with him and best at 5f on firm ground anyway.
Strath Burn needs to improve quite a lot.
Watchable‘s run in France last time seems to have been overlooked by bookmakers and punters. Muhaarar beat Queen Anne second (and Jaques Le Marois winner) 1/2 length, with a further 1/2 to Gordon Lord Byron and just a length back to Watchable in 4th. 3rd to Intrinsic on third start suggests goes on a soft surface. Again, around 28/1 looks to under-estimate his chance.
Pearl Secret has bits and pieces of form that suggests might be up to this and goes on soft ground, but can ruin his chance by taking a hold.
Due Dilligence doesn’t seem capable since injury. Not worth considering unless a market move speaks in his favour.
Interception doesn’t look up to the task.In no particular order:
Gordon Lord Byron 9/1
Waady 14/1
Eastern Impact 28/1
Watchable 28/1Value Is EverythingEatern Impact and Danzeno look very closely matched but Richard Fahey’s Gelding has never ran a bad race at Newmarket (3rd,1st, 1st, 2nd,, 1st, 4th) so the July cup was in his favour and I would have some doubts at Haydock, even at the huge price.
The ground is going to be an issue right up till post time as the current good to soft will either become good or good in places as it will be a dry day in that area.
As you have noted, Danzeno is a right pain in the ar$e when it comes to breaking cleanly from the stalls and I have no doubt that we will hear Jim Mcgrath call him a bit of a monkey at least 3 or 4 times leading up to the race.No doubt that price for Gordon Lord Byron is a good one but he came into this race last year off of a really good effort and also ran really well previous to winning the race in 2013.
Not the case this year with a disappointing effort at the Curragh and I am a bit concerned about that even though he ran a cracker not long before that in a group 1 at Deauville.
Conditions look perfect for Adaay so I expect him to be right there at the line.All in all this is an exciting race to get stuck into.
Reverse Forecast: Danzeno/Adaay
My three against the field are
GORDON LORD BYRON
EASTERN IMPACT
ADAAY
I have backed the first two at 8/1 and 25/1 so four places and hope!!
This looks a cracking contest with plenty that a case could be made for. Everything that could be said about Gordon Lord Byron has been said, and I can’t disagree with any of it. He has everything going for him, although it looks like it might dry up just a bit. Even so, he looks the one to beat and 8/1 still looks reasonable.
Equally, Danzeno has the ability to win this if he manages to get things right at the start, hopefully Dettori will have learned from his run in the July Cup. Good luck with him Darren, picking up 25/1 was genius mate
Having said all that, and not having had the foresight of Darren, I’m going for a bit of a speculative punt on what is no doubt perceived as one of the “also rans”. I think at 50/1 (1st 4 places) with Betvictor, that Interception is not without a shout. I was impressed when he won The Wokingham at Ascot, I think he looked to have won it quite cosily and I thought at the time he might be better than a very good handicapper. He has been tried in a Group 3 and a listed race in his next two starts after The Wokingham, going off fav for both, without either quite going to plan, although he ran a respectable 3rd in the latter of the two. I know his wins have been on g/f, but he did run a very decent running on 3rd over 7f in a listed race last October at Ascot in the soft, so I don’t think the ground will be an issue, and stamina certainly won’t be.
Being honest, I don’t think he is the likeliest winner of this (an understatement as he is on offer at 50/1) but I think at those odds he has a squeak at grabbing a place and is worth the chance.
You are never far off the mark Ginger, and you could be right that he is not up to the task, but I don’t think he should be a 50/1 shot. I don’t think he will go off at much more than half those odds.
Good luck guys
As many of you are probably already aware, I follow trends and when I look at Group 1 races over 6f that I have analysed over the last 2 seasons, I see the following – the winners of a race have followed 20 of the 21 trends in those races. That means only once did a trend not get followed.
Sometimes there is more than one trend in a race and today I have noticed 3;
> 19 of the last 21 winners were aged 3yo-5yo
> 20 of the last 21 winners had finished in the first 6 places last time out
> 11 of the last 13 winners had already won a race with an Official Rating of 104 or higherIn the race today only 5 of the 17 declared horses follow all 3 of the above trends…
Eastern Impact
Adaay
Mattmu
Strath Burn
WaadyI got on Mattmu e/w at 10s last night.
Good luck wth your bets !!
Eatern Impact and Danzeno look very closely matched but Richard Fahey’s Gelding has never ran a bad race at Newmarket (3rd,1st, 1st, 2nd,, 1st, 4th) so the July cup was in his favour and I would have some doubts at Haydock, even at the huge price.
The ground is going to be an issue right up till post time as the current good to soft will either become good or good in places as it will be a dry day in that area.
As you have noted, Danzeno is a right pain in the ar$e when it comes to breaking cleanly from the stalls and I have no doubt that we will hear Jim Mcgrath call him a bit of a monkey at least 3 or 4 times leading up to the race.No doubt that price for Gordon Lord Byron is a good one but he came into this race last year off of a really good effort and also ran really well previous to winning the race in 2013.
Not the case this year with a disappointing effort at the Curragh and I am a bit concerned about that even though he ran a cracker not long before that in a group 1 at Deauville.
Conditions look perfect for Adaay so I expect him to be right there at the line.All in all this is an exciting race to get stuck into.
Reverse Forecast: Danzeno/Adaay
The trainer has said that Gordon Lord Byron doesn’t seem to like The Curragh and that he is better on flat tracks like Haydock. The horse has worked well this week and the trainer thinks that his run behind Muhaarar is one of his best ever. I was hoping for more rain but I’m happy that the theory that he was cast iron certain to line up and his course record made him a sound ante-post pick each-way. Adaay has a habit of popping up and ruining my picks since way back when he flopped ante-post in the Coventry for me last year. I fear him most.
Twilight Son is interesting but a bit short for me. Danzeno was a great early shout but I’d like to have seen him land a win this season. Eastern Impact is a nice price but I feel Waady missed a trick not running in the Nunthorpe. I had expected that Acapulco would make all and perhaps been vulnerable to a finisher and so it proved. Waady could have been the one cutting her down but they sent Muthmir in to bat instead and he was out for a duck. Respected but the extra furlong saw him run his only defeat this season and that’s a worry.
Good luck everybody.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This is a very open race. You could make a convincing case for Adaay, Mattmu and many others.
However a lot of these sprints seem to throw up upset results (probably due to the shortness of the contests) so therefore I’m willing to take a risk on Belardo and Due Diligence at quite big prices.
Massive congratulations to Henry Candy but Jesus the front 3 were well clear of the rest, you cant underestimate the importance of a horse liking good to soft ground.
Danzeno broke well today at last but looking back would have been better value on firmer going. This was one hell of an open race and so it proved.Well done to to Fergus Sweeney as well, 1st group 1 winner.
Well that race proved that the easy part is getting the odds ante-post and the difficult part is getting the winner.
Numerous huge disappointments today and none more than Gordon Lord Byron, who was totally friendless ante-post but every lemming in the land wanted him at the ridiculous odds on the day. He’s run a stinker there, as has Adaay and it’s hard to fathom why in both cases.
Twilight Son was interesting, as I said beforehand but I thought he was a bit skinny with the competitive looking race it was today.
G Force ran his best race for some time and may be getting interesting again after a while in the wilderness. Waady was in the wrong race, Tiggy Wiggy seems finished and badly campaigned, Belardo is a myth who was briefly a racehorse. Due Diligence ran pretty well and Magical Memory has risen well through the ranks this season. Amazingly, when looking back through the form, you can see he had finished third to Twilight Son twice already this year, so it’s amazing how these things work out sometimes.
Onwards to the St Leger for me, probably to watch another 16/1 Ante Post selection start 3/1 and run like a bag of rusty spanners. Storm The Stars, don’t do another Lord Byron on me
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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