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I like a improving horse and that is
MONTASER 14/1
Trained by David Simcock who won race with a horse with a same profile in Darley Sun this the plan for horse and will run very well.Will be single figures on the day.
Just starting to look at the race [my favourite after the Ebor]. I was wondering if Darley Sun was back to any sort of winning mark now. Godolphin are very good with staying types [as they’ve shown with the St Leger. However, too many horses to plough through at this stage.
Just backed Right Stuff. Have never heard of him and he’s older even than me…might not even run
and goes well fresh. Seems to have a decent flat record although hasn’t won a Cl2. Bit of a dark horse I think. And, of course, it’s all down to the draw.
I like that Countrywide Flame, who’s still available at 10/1, and is about 20 lbs well in, on the basis of his NH handicap mark when he won the Triumph, going away at the finish.
But I’ve also put some on Prescott’s horse, Kepler’s Law at 25s. I’ve been killing myself laughing at the tuppeny-hapenny races he’s been sauntering home in. I wonder what his mark would be if he’d been running in races commensurate with his class!
He looks a bit of a rogue, doesn’t he! You could imagine him playing Raffles, the high-society burglar, or the Scarlet Pimpernel. Always a kind of twinkle in his eye and a smile on his face.
My horse got tailed off in a tuppenyhalfpenny race t’other day. His OR and RPR’s have halved and his TS has now got a minus in front of it. I don’t know why I bother; I’m usless these days!
My horse got tailed off in a tuppenyhalfpenny race t’other day. His OR and RPR’s have halved and his TS has now got a minus in front of it. I don’t know why I bother; I’m usless these days!
Don’t we all have those kind of things, Moehat? In fact, a whole run of them!
I’ve bet on 4 or 5 so far in the Ces, but I’d like to do another 7 to 10, because if, as seems likely, I’ll do another couple, the winner will still, likely, escape my eagle eye.
I’m confused about the draw bias; TSL says 12 or lower, but I’ve always thought it was 17 or higher [last 2 winners 30 and 36]. I’m clinging to the hope that Right Stuff needed the run or that connections want a big price on Saturday so they can have a huge punt on him
. Everone’s so excited about Frankel et al but, to me this is THE important end of season race. Changing my computer provider this week and terrified that my internet connection will go down at such an important time. Very Good Day looks very good, and I’m confused by the Pipe horses; so many of them, some of which have changed stables and Pipe could have improved over a distance. Ermyn Lodge has ran a couple of stinkers this season but had a bad draw last year and came close to winning. Had very good form with that Irish Leger winner [the one I backed for the Ebor] a few years back.
I too like Very Good Day but best form is on good ground – how’s the ground shaping up for Saturday?
Countrywide Flame looks the one to beat IMO, but i’ll be taking a good look at the other NH horses still in on Friday eve.
Waiting game for me on this race, until Friday eve i suspect.
Ground and Draw will influence my final picks.Difficult to assess the chances of good staying types like Martyr and Bernie who are coming back from injury. And, as I feared my computer may go down today for a while. When is the draw?
I’m going to join in the love for Very Good Day, and I’ll also give a big shout out to Tominator, too.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Tominator has got a great draw. All of mine have rubbish draws [Cosimo de Medeci, Dark somethingorother, Very Good Day and Ermyn Lodge]. Right Stuff is actually running [hurrah] but has a crap draw
.
It’s a great race and nothing would please me more than seeing John Quinn win it but whether his dual purpose winner is as good as Detroit City was I doubt. The way Grumeti outpointed him at Aintree worries me as I reckon he’s more about stamina than he is about speed and could struggle a bit in the closing stages despite this being a marathon event.
Blue Bajan would be a very popular winner among true racing fans so I’ll have 5p ew on him and 10p on Hurricane Higgins who was once thought to be a Leger horse.
What will win it? Haven’t a clue really but Montaser should give me a run for my money…..or I could buy a stamp
I don’t think this is a race for speculating much at all on long shots, but here’s mine anyway.
I’ve watched Lyric Street run well in good handicaps a couple of times this year. At York, he was placed behind Mount Athos & finished ahead of Motivado, and at Ascot he finished ahead of Bernie the Bolt. Some people fancy Motivado & Bernie, they are both much shorter prices than Lyric Street.
I’ve just had a gut instinct he was being prepped for something. I honestly didn’t think it was this race, but today he’s got first-time blinkers and a 5lb claimer on. He does have a very wide draw, not sure if that’s OK or bad ?
It’s is a real gamble, but at 15/1 for a place, & 80-90/1 to win, I’ll risk a few £’s on Lyric Street.
What sort of ground does Montaser want?
Nearly all form on ground given as good or good/firm.
I looked at the impact of the draw yesterday and from the previous five renewals I noticed the following:
50% of the first six home were drawn 1 – 10,
16.7% drawn 11 – 20,
26.7% drawn 21 – 30,
6.7% were drawn higher.A quite telling statistic, but for horses who don’t possess a great deal of tactical speed the ability to hold a good position early on is pivotal. You also have to consider the degree of luck involved when trying to meander through a sea of more than thirty horses.
Much has been made about the record of 3YOs in this race, but in recent years there have only been a handful of participants. Colour Vision was placed – and perhaps unlucky – last year, Darley Sun won in 2009 and the classy Askar Tau was fourth in 2008. History proves that age is not an excuse in this contest.
With age being no barrier I expect Blue Bajan to run well. He has a nice perch in stall five and the handicapper has given him a chance. He will not be intimidated by this big field and we know he stays very well.
A gelding with plenty of ability is Hurricane Higgins. It is only recently that he started showing just what he is capable of, with victory at Glorious Goodwood and a fine third at Group level behind Times Up. His record over two miles and beyond currenly stands at a win and two placed efforts from just three races, so he is pretty much unexposed over these marathon trips and is due to go up 10lb.
Considering his trainers record with stayers, it wouldn’t surprise if, should he continue on an upward curve, Hurricane Higgins lined-up in the Ascot Gold Cup next year.
I would normally shy away from those rated so high, but like many prestigious handicaps the standard is rising all the time and it should be noted that both Colour Vision and Mount Athos were placed in this event last year.
Blue Bajan and Hurricane Higgins for me.
Got to have a bet in The Cesarewitch, and after swithering with Cry For The Moon
, and Stormy Weather
, I decide to go for Aaim to Prosper
…..who’s out of form, and significantly higher than he was when winning it 2 years ago. I’ve taken a leap of faith, based on the chance that Fallon isn’t riding him for nothing, after getting to know him last time out here. On the face of it, he was well beaten, but began to show signs of keeping on then, and the extra 2f just might suit……….clutching at straws I suppose, probably deserve all I get.Cry For The Moon, looks very interesting, and has impressed me on more than one occasion, can see him running a big race at 33’s
Stormy Weather is a bit unpredictable, but not a forlorn hope on some of his runs, stamina certainly shouldn’t be an issue. At 40’s, you’d be hopeful of a decent run for your money, and may just be staying on at the end, but I’ll stick with Aaim to Prosper.
GL
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