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Betfair have changed the conditions for this bonus
In order to win the prize, a horse must finish in the top 3 in the Betfair Chase, then come 1st or 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival and then win the Grand National!
Seems ridiculous and completely unachievable to me, even for Denman.
Why not add the Ascot Gold Cup in there as well, wouldn’t be any more difficult.
On the upside they might leave commission charges alone now we don’t have to pay Clive Smith anymore.
I actually think this has been set up for Denman as he was never going to run at Kempton and the National is the only race he’d ever run in at Aintree. And when you think about it having all 3 races run on left handed tracks makes more sense than throwing a right handed race in the mix. Whether Denman goes for the National next year or 2010 is another matter, but I certainly wouldn’t bet against him breaking the weight carrying trend of recent years. Would also be interesting to see how Phil Smith would handicap him seeing as he likes to keep the weights fairly tight for Aintree and is unlikely to have 1 horse forcing most of the field out of the handicap proper.
Would also be interesting to see how Phil Smith would handicap him
He could insist that McCoy takes the ride
Only joking Tony!
Seems a very good change to me, firstly should get the entries up for the Betfair Chase. As for Denman, previously he would have been most unlikely to run in the National, this will make them think twice if he qualifies through the first two legs. If he doesn’t a "lesser" horse could get the pot if he wins the National having been placed in the other two.
And if its any Ferstival race, its not inconceiveable for one to run well in the William Hill and then win the National.
Surely connections of any horse that has pretensions of winning the National aren’t going to ruin a potentially good exploitable handicap mark by running in the Betfair Chase.
Exactly.
The best bonuses are the simplest. This sounds like a fudge to me – who cares if some horse comes 3rd in the Betfair Chase, 2nd in say the WH at Cheltenham and then wins the National?? It doesnt represent a significant achievement, so why pay a million pounds if some horse does it?
And why would Betfair want National hopefuls in the Betfair Chase anyway? It isn’t an obvious target for most potential National runners.
Sounds to me like Betfair want to significantly reduce the chance of any horse winning the bonus.
The first 3 in the GN could be possibles for the Betfair chase, one or two of them could get a place dependant on the field, they would have near the top weights in the National anyway if Denman doesn’t run. It’s an incentive to run in the Betfair & GN, you could have 2 or 3 horses going for it in the National where previously after the Betfair only one horse could win it. Like the sound of it.
Betfair never said that the now outgoing criteria for landing the bonus were ever carved in stone, but one thing about the new ones concerns me instantly.
There is usually a gap of four weeks between the Betfair Chase and the King George / Lexus Chases. That’s fine, and for most top-class horses I’d proffer that you wouldn’t want it any shorter.
The 2009 calendar isn’t out yet, but we have seen often enough that the gap between Cheltenham and Aintree is frequently as few as three weeks and in a number of instances even two. And herein lies the problem; will connections of certain animals still nominally in with a chance focus on the prize at the possible expense of their charges’ very best interests?
Clearly I don’t think we’ll see dozens of horses lining up in next year’s National having had such hard Festival races that a swift reappearance would ordinarily have been dismissed out of hand immediately, but I still fear we might see some.
Is racing really ready for the sh*t-storm if one such animal pays the ultimate price at Aintree in pursuit of the million pounds? Animal Aid / Liz Jones would hardly be able to believe their luck.
For my money, if the National is to be regarded as the final leg of the bonus, then a second race option of winning either the Aon or Ascot Chases would at least be somewhere closer to equidistant between the Aintree contest and the Betfair Chase.
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Best guess at the 2009 schedule would have the Gold Cup on March 13th and the National on April 4th.
Does the race round the garden centre count for the Cheltenham Festival qualification – Silver Birch was second in that. The most recent National winner I can think of that might have been able to handle all three parts of this is Rough Quest. No Betfair Chase in those days, but he was second in the Hennessey and the Gold Cup.
Keen Leader won the Tommy Whittle and finished second in the William Hill, but that was in different seasons and he was never likely to be sent to Aintree unless he changed owners. But he is the best recent example I can think of as a potential candidate for this unlikely treble.
TDK,
If asked to offer insurance, how would you have priced up the previous set up and how would you price this one?
AP
AP
Obviously the price depends on the specific set of horses around at any given time.
In this era of Nicholls seemingly having one oustanding chaser aimed at the Million, you wouldn’t be much bigger than 4/1 him winning the "old" version.
I think the new version seems much less likely simply because the Betfair Chase wouldnt be on the radar for most National candidates – and if a "classy" horse was to be laid out for the National, then potentially bottoming the horse out at Cheltenham wouldn’t be part of the plan. How many horses each year even start at less than 10-1 in the National? It would have to be at least that price…
Is racing really ready for the sh*t-storm if one such animal pays the ultimate price at Aintree in pursuit of the million pounds? Animal Aid / Liz Jones would hardly be able to believe their luck
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Trust someone to bring that scum into the discussion, I never gave them a thought and on reflection I think I was right
Its a muddled format and if the attention is to generate publicity i cant help wondering if the media is going to have to be continuously prompted to mention it
There was a tidy logic to a chaser going for three top staying chases
I don’t know why Betfair are doing this- they have already received massive public exposure on Grand National day that cost them seven figures this year!
Joking aside, my main wonder initially would be if this increases the chances of Kauto & Denman meeting again before Cheltenham next year, or if Paul Nicholls will now go out of his way to find an alternative for the former champ?
Didn’t betfair have a rather public fallout with Aintree over there previous and ongoing sponsorship?
If 1 or 2 qualifiers make it to the National having gone through Haydock and Cheltenham…betfair automatically hijack a fair bit of coverage (much of it in the wider, non-racing press) and there isn’t anything Aintree or other sponsors can do about it.
Looks like tactical marketing to me rather than reducing chances of it being won.
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