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Why not take the 8s with BlueSq now then. It’s NRNB. Or 7s is generally available. Do you use the early betting to form part of your decision-making? Just curious.
I prefer raceday betting and nope
- Total Posts 17716
Come on you guys, get real!
For those thinking of backing Exotic Dancer, he has improvement to find on every race he ran against KS or, according to RPR, 5lb to find on his very best rating to even equal KS’s low key first run this year at Aintree.
MWDS is even further behind, and even if he ran to his best, which is unlikely over this distance, he still has over a stone to find from somewhere to get near KS’s abortive seasonal debut.
All the above assumes KS won’t improve from that run, and the only hope you could possibly have is for him to either fall, or have regressed from his recent introduction.
Dream on.
If we believed everything we read Kauto would be 1/6 fav.
I don’t believe for one minute My Way will need this run. What was it King said?……."difficult to get fit but we are getting there. What he was really saying is by Saturday we will have him jumping out his skin.
He’ll be fit as fiddle tomorrow cos they want this one big time….as I said earlier its a make or break race for them.
The bookies know this and they expect a big run. That’s the only reason we are getting evens.
If think Kauto wins this one very easily then you can forget MWDS even running in the King George and Kauto will be cut to 4/7 for the boxing day race.
There is just nothing else in his league but then when Champions like him emerge that is usually the case.
TIMEFORM RATINGS
Aces Four 163
Beef Or Salmon 173x
Denman 168p
Exotic Dancer 181
Kauto Star 190
Madison du Berlais 156
Monkerhostin 163
My Way de Solzen 167p
Offshore Account 155
Ollie Magern 162
Taranis 165
Too Forward 158
Turpin Green 167$
Yes Sir 154If the ratings are to believed, KS should be somewhere near a 80/90% probability
Why have the layers got him at around a 50% probability?
THose figures would just about sum up the race for me and if we were being totally blunt and pigheaded we would be saying this is a 2 horse race and the rest won’t be sighted. How many times have we said that and ended up looking stupid
If My Way De Solzen gets the trip in this class, we will have a race on our hands……….if he doesn’t it will be along time before you see evens again from those cocky bookies, about Kauto for anything, not unless you are willing to take an AP price for the gold cup around 5/4 after he bolts in tomorrow. Taking it he does.
MWDS is even further behind, and even if he ran to his best, which is unlikely over this distance, he still has over a stone to find from somewhere to get near KS’s abortive seasonal debut.
How many novices have had the opportunity to run to as high a figure as a Gold Cup winner? I really don’t understand why people suggest My Way de Solzen won’t be as good at 3m as shorter. He improved dramatically over hurdles when faced with his stiffest test of stamina and is bred to relish a real slog. I’m not disputing My Way de Solzen needs to improve, most second season chasers do when they step up in class in their second season, but given his hurdling form and what he has shown over fences to date, he has tonnes of scope to do better over fences.
- Total Posts 17716
DJ
In recent interviews, both MWDS’s trainer and his jockey have stated that his best distance is probably somewhere between 2m4 & 2m6, which most of his form suggests is a reasonable view.
Here he is over, what’s bound to be a testing 3m in the circumstances, and meeting chasers at least 10lbs better than any he has met before.
Add to that his main target is the King George over a sharper 3m, that this first race of his season is probably a prep race for that, and I just cannot see him troubling either of the principals, barring accidents of course.Im a massive My Way De Solzen fan, but evidence from previous seasons indicates he does tend to need his first run of the season, despite King stating he thinks he has him fit. Kauto Star has Exotic Dancer held on all formlines. Tomorrow will be Kauto’s day, though if theres one horse that could beat him later on in the season, I think its MWDS.
KS well ahead on ratings, Exotic Dancer held, MWDS needs to improve and needs run
Why have the layers got him at around a 50% probability?
KS well ahead on ratings, Exotic Dancer held, MWDS needs to improve and needs run
Why have the layers got him at around a 50% probability?
1. Didn’t look interested LTO
2. Could develop into a slog if the ground deteriorates
3. Sam Thomas is on board
4. Tendency to hit one later on and fences around Haydock are tou … scrap that one actually- Total Posts 17716
KS well ahead on ratings, Exotic Dancer held, MWDS needs to improve and needs run
Why have the layers got him at around a 50% probability?
EW
Possibly because of his aesthetically unappealing run lto.
MWDS is also almost certainly too short: a price based on his promise, rather than what he has delivered thus far.
Imo, both false premises when viewed in the cold light of day.reet/David
Where getting there
What about the ED being held, is he?
In the 3 races where KS and ED met, i’ve not seen ED have a clear shot at KS
Aintree – just like Carlisle last year – a prep
KG, held up to get trip
tracked leading pair 3 out, went 2nd and blundered next, no chance with winner
GC again held up to get trip
hit 9th and 12th, hit 15th, headway 3 out, not much room on inside approaching 2 out, driven to chase winner last but no impressionThey know there are no problems with the trip and with a clear shot, is there a possibility ED can make up 2.5 lengths on KS ????
I fancy MWDS to give the fav a real race. I don’t see 3 miles being a problem around a flat track like Haydock- It’s no more of a test of stamina than his World Hurdle win. Fitness is a slight worry, but with all the moolah on offer with the bonus I’ll be surprised if he’s not pretty fit for this.
I couldn’t back Exotic Dancer with stolen money- for me he’s still a twicer who was flattered by being extremely well handicapped last season and who could easily spit the dummy completely this year in the face of tougher tasks off levels with the best- his last run may have been a preview of this.
Why Charlie Swan runs Offshore Account here rather than in the Hennessy beggars belief- especially after putting all us Ante-Post punters away a few weeks ago- at best he’ll hunt up the principals and bugger his handicap mark.
Kuato has something to prove to me after the last day.Whilst Exotic Dancer may have been well handicapped in the Paddy Power and Boylesports, we can only come to that conclusion after his good efforts off levels in conditions races. He wasn’t well handicapped in the King George or the Gold Cup.
I think it’s unfair to label a horse a twicer who has never been out of the first 3 in all his completed races over fences and of the 4 runners at Aintree, he was the one to me who looked least ready and was there for a school round. For what it’s worth, my tissue is
14/1 BEEF OR SALMON (IRE)
4/1 EXOTIC DANCER (FR)
11/8 KAUTO STAR (FR)
4/1 MY WAY DE SOLZEN (FR)
40/1 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE)
20/1 OLLIE MAGERN
20/1 TURPIN GREEN (IRE)- Total Posts 17716
Why Charlie Swan runs Offshore Account here rather than in the Hennessy beggars belief- especially after putting all us Ante-Post punters away a few weeks ago- at best he’ll hunt up the principals and bugger his handicap mark.
Carvills
Or maybe Charlie Swan knows something we don’t, and may be running him here instead of the Hennessy so he won’t bugger his handicap mark?
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