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Quick, early post…
Betfair Chase – Sky Bet bet: 7/4 Silviniaco Conti; 11/4 Don Cossack; 5/1 Cue Card; 7/1 Coneygree; 10/1 Ballynagour; 12/1 Dynaste; 16/1 Holywell; 20/1 Kings Palace, Menorah
There will be some juice in here for those who want to dig and speculate. Much as I’d love to see the Don turn up, his trainer has said Kempton is next (as the 11/4 shows: he’d be evens at best if intended). With my old friend Cue Card, you need to hope that the epiglottal surgery holds up. Coneygree seems to be in a tug of war between the Bradstocks – she does not think the track is in his favour. I don’t know Pipe’s intentions, but my instinctive response to this betting is that Kings Palace looks the EW value.
BUT, sit yourself down at the Bradstocks’ breakfast table. You’ll be struck by the absence of Mr and Mrs Ricci and suchlike owners. Look through the window and you won’t see state of the art boxes and multi-million pound gallops…so, ask yourself ‘What could I do with a million quid bonus?’
Surely they must run this horse? They believe he can win a King George and a second Gold Cup. Haydock might not be perfect for him, but if DC stays at home, they must run him, mustn’t they? How does 7s each way look now?
I’d agree in general Joe but each way ante post betting should be a big no-no unless you’re pretty sure the horse will turn up.
7/1 win only is probably a gamble worth taking though as they’ve entered him and nearer the time the thought of giving a stone and half to a previous Gold Cup winner such as Bobs Worth (previous Hennessy winner too) and numerous other dangers, may not be so tempting.
Lee
After his reappearance on Monday I think Conti is the most likely winner (even if Don Cossack turns up – which I don’t think he will), Conti can just harry Cue Card on the front end from the start and then out stay him after the last.
I wouldn’t touch Kings Palace with the proverbial barge pole as he always beats up on small fields where he can easily dominate but on the big day he always has his limitations exposed (as his two failures at the festival demonstrate).
Menorah at a price would be dangerous but has never convinced me that he is a natural chaser and at some point his jumping will let him down especially on the likely soft ground, Holywell’s history confirms that he is an out and out spring horse so that rules him out for me. Ballynagour ran a great race in the Charlie Hall and maybe is worth an e/w bet but I am very wary as his form is inconsistant and he doesn’t always back up his good runs.
The old Haydock chase course would have been tailor made for Coneygree but since they messed with it they have turned it more into a speed track (similar to Wetherby). He will go to Sandown first (a very nice intermediate chase for second season novices) and then go on to the Hennessy (a week after the Betfair Chase) as both courses place an emphasis on jumping/staying which is his real forte.
I really applaude them for sticking to their guns as they said all along that the Hennessy was the early season target so the last thing they need to be doing is changing their plans at the last minute just to chase a bonus on a course that won’t suit him. The Sandown race will be a good test for him with Southfield Theatre and Puffin Billy in opposition and it also means they have an extra week recovery to fine tune him for the Hennessy.
Forget Coneygree for this and the million pound treble… they’ve not even entered him for the King George…incredible decision!
You’re right, wilson, an ante-post bet EW would be foolish. I very rarely have them, though did so yesterday when Skybet went 14s Peace & Co for the Champion Hurdle.
Goes to show what a million quid is worth to the big boys these days – not a single Mullins entry. Don Cossack does not run according to Elliott (I’d have thought O’Leary, for all his cash would have been tempted – maybe he’ll send Road to Riches) and he’s out to 5/1.
Also, now the market’s settled you can have 10s Coneygree, indicating that Mrs B will win the argument, but I think I’ll chance it. He’s the only one left (if Don C misses it) with a realistic chance of landing the bonus, and he’ll be nothing like 10s if he lines up. I’ll have a wee bet on Road to Riches too.
Even if you take the view that this is Silv Conti’s Gold Cup, 15/8 is skinny, imo. Here’s the market now from Oddschecker:
Silviniaco Conti (15/8), Cue Card (5), Don Cossack (5), Coneygree (10), Ballynagour (12), Dynaste (14)in, Saphir Du Rheu (14), Holywell (16), Road To Riches (16), Irish Cavalier (20), Menorah (20), Sam Winner (20), Southfield Theatre (20), Kings Palace (25), Bobs Worth (33), Clarcam (33), O Faolains Boy (33), Ofaolains Boy (33), The Giant Bolster (33), Wounded Warrior (33)
Although he has won at Kempton (Saphir Du Rheu falling early) it was little more than a mickey mouse race and I have never really seen him as a KG horse, unless ground conditions were hock deep like they were when Dessie won in 1990.
You need to stay the 3m trip for sure but it is still more of a speed orientated course and on that flat track on ground anything quicker than very soft, I just don’t see him being able to make it enough of a test of stamina to get the speed horses out of their comfort zone.
After his Gold Cup win they always said that his two targets for next season were the Hennessy & the Gold Cup, the Hennessy will no doubt see him carrying top weight and if all the names entered actually turn up it could take a performance better than his Gold Cup run to actually win it – I don’t think then running him in the KG just 4 weeks later would be in the horses best interests.
To highlight just what a task that is, if memory serves, the only horses to actually win a Hennessy under top weight and then follow up the next month in the KG are Mill House (1963), Arkle (1965) & Burrough Hill Lad (1984).
Forget Coneygree for this and the million pound treble… they’ve not even entered him for the King George…incredible decision!
Unbelievable, some folk don’t deserve good horses, they don’t know what to do with them when they’ve got them.
Bet Nicholls can’t believe his luck, all he has to do now is to get Conti to win the first 2 legs.Zam, I somehow missed your post, and have just seen that news. It seems an incredible decision – I wonder if it’s an error on their part, or they simply don’t think they can beat Vautour/Don Cossack at Kempton?
After winning the Gold Cup, Sara Bradstock seemed to have the King George firmly in mind:
Rather more detail had been offered earlier by Sara, suggesting that the King George VI Chase on St Stephen’s Day was a certain target, with a choice of prep races. “Although I’m not mad on Haydock, we will look at the Betfair Chase before Kempton, but there’s a possibility we might try to win the Hennessy (at Newbury) off top weight.”
I’m assuming there is a supplementary stage, in case he was left out in error?
As to the test offered by the King George, I think the flat course there is deceptive – I believe it’s a serous test of stamina these days, mostly because of the pace it’s run it and the likelihood of softish ground: the fact that Long Run won it twice backs up the stamina requirements, imo.
Quote from yard reported on twitter: “He was not entered in the KG. He is going for the Hennessy – that is the race for him and anything else is a long way away.”
Sara B now seems obsessed with the Hennessy…perhaps we should take the hint!
Quote from yard reported on twitter: “He was not entered in the KG. He is going for the Hennessy – that is the race for him and anything else is a long way away.”
Sara B now seems obsessed with the Hennessy…perhaps we should take the hint!
Doubt it, it’s a handicap and he’s won the Gold Cup!
Agreed, yeats. At least I wouldn’t back him at 7s. But Mrs B really does seem to have reached the end of her tether with questions about this horse. I think it is bang out of order to give punters no indication whatever that a horse the yard had previously (and more than once) said would run at Kempton, one which any reasonable pundit would assume would run at Kempton, was not even to be entered.
If Mullins or Nicholls had done this, they’d be accused of being beyond the pale
Although he has won at Kempton (Saphir Du Rheu falling early) it was little more than a mickey mouse race and I have never really seen him as a KG horse, unless ground conditions were hock deep like they were when Dessie won in 1990.
Mickey Mouse race? He won it by 40 lengths….it was a novice chase and they couldn’t go the pace….if you compare that race to Silviniaco Conti winning the King George it was a fantastic performance…run about a second and a half slower…he was miles clear and out on his own in only his second ever chase, whilst SC had horses breathing down his neck the whole way…time wise and performance wise it was outstanding…..And the KG going is always testing…it was only given as gd/sft last year but he had no problem…look back down the years and see how many King George fields were strung out like washing!
You need to stay the 3m trip for sure but it is still more of a speed orientated course and on that flat track on ground anything quicker than very soft, I just don’t see him being able to make it enough of a test of stamina to get the speed horses out of their comfort zone.
I completely disagree there! How many King Georges has speed won over stamina? It’s a real stamina test in my eyes and the way he races of course he would take ‘speed’ horses out of their comfort zones…his race times are excellent, he just puts his head down and gallops the opposition into submission and asks serious questions of horses jumping ability…like in the Gold Cup….If there is one chaser in training at the minute who could take any horse out of their comfort one then it’s surely Coneygree!
After his Gold Cup win they always said that his two targets for next season were the Hennessy & the Gold Cup, the Hennessy will no doubt see him carrying top weight and if all the names entered actually turn up it could take a performance better than his Gold Cup run to actually win it – I don’t think then running him in the KG just 4 weeks later would be in the horses best interests.
Again, that is wrong! After the Gold Cup they BOTH were saying a likely Haydock then Kempton route….Sara less so convinced about Haydock than Mark…but both on record as saying Kempton and the King George…If you want to I can go back and supply links to articles where they said this…..
It’s an incredibly bad decision in my opinion and pretty obvious from the earlier quote that it’s not a unanimous one….easy to see who wears the trousers….Why on earth you would want to send a horse to the Hennessy lugging top weight round in one of the toughest handicaps chases around…and bypass the King George because of it….surely with a horse in a lifetime you would have attempted the million bonus…they’ve already got a Hennessy in the bag…Coneygree apart, when will the Bradstocks have a live contender for the Betfair Chase and the King George??
Wonder who reported my original post in this thread for inappropriate content?
Completely agree with all of LD73,s post. I for one love the fact they are going for a ‘Denman’.
My favourite part of NH racing is the top boys going for big handicaps. Kauto Star, for all the fact he was a superb horse from 2-3.3m, couldn’t give weight in handicaps for whatever reason.
Denmans 2 Hennesseys count for more in my eyes than, for example, Kicking Kings pair of KG,s.
That said, I don’t see the harm in an entry. If he’s well, why not aim to join Arkle and Mill House? Denman was robbed of the chance by the bizarre NH trait of trainers separating horses rather than owners. Always baffled me that.
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Strongly suspect Bradstocks blundered badly here, and simply forgot to make the entry. No other explanation makes sense, to me, at least
Think you are strangely ignoring the fact they have always and consistently said they were aiming for the Hennesey and the Gold Cup SC.
We may disagree with this, but I have no idea why you would “strongly suspect” they forgot?
I’d ask everyone slagging Coneygree’s connections if they felt the same when Denman was never aimed at the KG? Of course not. Let’s not criticise the little guy if Paul Nicholls was above reproach.
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TTC, you might be right, but two minutes on Google found 2 quotes from them either saying outright or suggesting strongly that he’d go for the KG. No quotes, stories, or hints saying he might not or would not. At least 4 prominent racing reporters on twitter seem baffled by the decision. Sporting Life and Racing Post headline it. Many more experienced and better connected people than I seem to find it very odd, so I don’t think it’s stretching the imagination to suspect that they simply forgot to put him in and are, understandably, embarrassed to say so.
Maybe something will emerge in the coming days to explain: 1 Why the didn’t enter and 2, why they chose not to make any announcement to that effect.
As for Denman, I don’t recall there ever being a commitment by Nicholls or expectation among the racing community that he’d contest the KG.
Cards on the table then – the Bradstocks were fearless last season, and now people on this thread are having a go because it doesn’t suit their ideas. And you are basically questioning their professionalism with zero basis.
I don’t like that.
People have short memories, if Coneygree was trained by either fabled trainers Mullins or Nicholls, he’d have ran in the bloody Jewsob last March.
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