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Serious case of déjà vu as we see the first three home last year lock horns again.
Cue Card came out on top convincingly last time and if the ground is soft again we may see a similar story again. Silviniaco Conti seems to have lost his way of late but there’s no doubting he is top class on his day as when grinding out the King George from CC and could be gearing up for back to back wins in that. He hasn’t found much for pressure recently however especially in the Charlie Hall so there’s question marks about him at the moment for me. It may be that he wasn’t fully wound up despite Nicholls stating otherwise but at 3/1 I’m inclined to take him on. Dynaste is always there or thereabouts in these big races and is coming into his prime I feel. A sound jumper and traveller, he is very consistent but feel he is better on better ground although seems suited by Haydocks galloping track. Looks sure to be in the reckoning but may be outgunned if it remains soft and there are other targets to come. Cue Card bids to repeat last year’s success and follows the exact same route having run in the Haldon this time too. It’s hard to think he’s only 8 having been at the very top since his bumper days and you have to think he too is in his pomp. The softer the better and looks poised to give another big run with a lot in his favour, and at 3/1 is the one for me.
Of the rest I think Taquin de Seuil is being brought along slowly for a tilt at either the Gold Cup or other targets in the Spring, and although taking the Charlie Hall in taking style this may be too much of a test for the admirable Menorah. Harry Topper would only be of interest if the heavens opened but could be of interest in a decent race over Winter as he has a touch of class about him. Double Ross too revels in soft ground and could be a live each way option being such a tenacious front runner. Whether he is quite good enough to win Im not sure, but 20/1 is decent value.
Excuse my ignorance, I really should know this but…
Anyone know if this year’s race is being run on the same course as last year? Haven’t they finished the alterations to the old jumping course yet?If they have, why isn’t the official distance back to just 3m instead of 3m1f?
On the other hand, if it is being run (as last year) on part of the flat track – is the
actual
distance raced going to be as the official "3m1f" this time around? (ie Have they put the start further back, racing over further than last year?)…
Or is it like last year (as times told us) a race run over shorter than 3m let alone 3m1f, despite the "official" race distance?
(Unless Cue Card is the reincarnation of Arkle his time last year was impossible to do over the official 3m1f on anything like soft ground).
Value Is EverythingI’m not sure Ginge, but sounds like Wetherby aren’t the only ones with distance issues!
I understand this years race is over the same course as last year and this new betfair hurdle will be on the outer flat course but as as ever with the "modern haydock" you can’t be sure until you see it on the day
It’s going to be very tight, but I think I’m going to take Cue Card’s side. Of the ‘big three’, he’s a slightly stronger stayer at the trip than Dynaste and his wellbeing is more confirmed than that of Silviniaco Conti.
You could back all three and make a snide profit right now.
Betfair is a tricky race.
Dynaste
not out yet (although arguably best fresh and at this time of year. However, still has a bit to find over Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card. And not certain whether testing conditions at 3m1f (if it is actually 3m1f) will suit him. Something that could be said about many of these.
Silviniaco Conti
stays 3 miles around Kempton, but would he truly stay 3m1f in a heavy ground Betfair run at a good gallop? Did not appear to stay 3m2f110y at Cheltenham. Or was that more to do with temperament? Only had 3 lengths to spare over Argocat (third) at Aintree, having again seemingly going well before faltering on run-in. So although reappearance could be put down to needing the run; it’s worrying all last three runs found little off the bridle. Wouldn’t be surprised to see headgear or ear plugs.
Cue Card
made a lot of improvement from reappearance to Betfair Chase last year and needs to find even more this time. Although 2 miles might be a bit on the short side nowadays too. Stable are in much better form now than then too, which imo is a huge plus to his chances. Tizzards were also in poor form at the time of his uncharacteristic weak finish in King George. So the percieved stamina issue may not have been the deciding factor at Kempton after all. CC is the one I prefer of the big three.
Taquin Du Sieul
ran really well against Menorah in the Charlie Hall to run him to 4 lengths and can improve again. But along with those 4 lengths he’s also 5 lbs worse off with the Hobbs horse. Don’t see why TDS should be shorter than Menorah.
There is another one I like though,
Menorah
. I’ve been against this horse in most of his races. Hasn’t jumped well and inconsistent for so long. However, seems to have finally got the hang of jumping and that may well improve consistency. Also reappeared earlier this term which suggests all was not right last season. Test of stamina (heavy/strong pace) might be against him; but at 8/1 looks worth taking a chance on with a probable saver (or more) on Cue Card later on.
Forget
The Giant Bolster
this time of year, ran an indolent race first time up anyway.
Double Ross
appeared not to stay in the Charlie Hall, weakening late and
Medermit
doesn’t look good enough.
Harry Topper
imo does not jump well enough to win a normal grade 1 race on reasonable ground. But if it came up very testing could yet be worth a bet; as unlike the market principles is a proven stayer. It would also help if it was all of the official 3m1f trip. Stable’s runners are often under-estimated.
Value Is EverythingBetfair is a tricky race.
Taquin Du Sieul
ran really well against Menorah in the Charlie Hall to run him to 4 lengths and can improve again. But along with those 4 lengths he’s also 5 lbs worse off with the Hobbs horse. Don’t see why TDS should be shorter than Menorah.
Taquin du Seuil
will spoil the party for the first 3 home last year,I saw a horse who hated the ground at Wetherby,he was hitting it it hard and running on the spot but what it did prove is this fellow is actually a stayer in the making,the softer ground will see him in better light aswell.At 7/1 he is a cracking price to beat the 3/1 co favs who filled the frame in last years renewal,out of which I only see ‘Silvianico Conti’ as a danger.This ‘Cue Card’ is as much a Gold Cup horse as you are a Bookmaker Ginge!
TDS has a reasonable chance on Saturday Gord, but the ground at Wetherby was very similar to when winning at Cheltenham. So can’t see that as an excuse. Not that needs one because it was right up with his best. Although agree, a stiffer test that soft provides may well help and is the one unexposed horse in this field. However, on Charlie Hall form has 9 lbs to find on Menorah and the Hobbs (in good form) horse won fairly easily too. Only if it came up very soft would I have TDS alongside Menorah in the betting (which admittedly is possible). That said, I’d rather back TDS than either SC or Dynaste at their current prices.
Am convinced Cue Card is the second best horse in training Gord. Just not fully convinced yet of whether stamina will last out in a "Gold Cup". Agreed there are question marks and Hills 8/1 clear fav for the Blue Riband in March is strange. However, is available @ 14/1 elsewhere and wouldn’t be laying that. Saturday’s race is not the Gold Cup anyway.
Value Is EverythingCue Card’s biggest fan signing in…but I won’t be backing him on Saturday.
The way he stopped in the King George was something I can’t recall witnessing before. He was then diagnosed with a stress fracture of the pelvis and had a wind op too. Much as I’d love to see him back to his best, I won’t be backing him again until he proves himself.
TDS is having a pretty busy time of it for a young horse, but I wouldn’t write him off. Dynaste I can never quite catch. A mudbath should see harry T run well, and Menorah could figure if the ground doesn’t get too soft.
But I believe the value lies in Medermit. He’s not jocked up yet – anyone know if he’s an intended runner? I believe he is steadily coming back – whether he will realise his potential this late I don’t know, but he’d be a sound EW bet imo.
I think it is very difficult to be confident about anything in this year’s Betfair Chase.
Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card both disappointed on their seasonal reappearances and Dynaste has been a little bit of an under achiever in my eyes so far.
I’d like to side with the younger Taquin De Sueil but I feel he has a bit to find to reach this level and he is 5lbs worse off with Menorah after finishing behind him last time.
As Joe said, Cue Card stopped to absolutely nothing, rather than gradually tiring, when going from looking all over the King George winner to paddling for his life in a matter of strides. He has a little to prove after missing the remainder of the season and making a modest comeback.
Silviniaco Conti was a warm favourite for the Charlie Hall but capitulated in tame fashion to complete a "curse of the ten to follow" double, with Sire De Grugy, for me. He is wearing cheek pieces for the first time in the Betfair, as is Taquin De Sueil, and it’s debatable how much impact that will make for either horse.
Dynaste was second in this last year and if we are assuming all is not well with Cue Card this year we can surely make a case for Dynaste to take advantage of that. I am just put off at the odds by the fact that he’s been a shade disappointing a couple of times but he’d be my pick of the first three in the betting.
Most of the others don’t look good enough really and at the odds I would probably pick Menorah after what looked something akin to a career best for him last time. Soft ground might not be his best surface but he has won on heavy. He had one career start where his jumping was a shambles but if he’s improved in that department then he has a chance with fitness and stable form on his side.
The lay of the race for me has to be Silviniaco Conti at 11/4 after such a weak first effort this season.
Menorah 9/1 narrowly preferred to Dynaste at 4/1 if I was having a bet.
Good luck to all intrepid punters in a trappy looking contest.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
But I believe the value lies in Medermit. He’s not jocked up yet – anyone know if he’s an intended runner? I believe he is steadily coming back – whether he will realise his potential this late I don’t know, but he’d be a sound EW bet imo.
Denis O’Regan is on Medermit Joe but I’ll be shocked if he’s in the mix.
It’s been three years since the horse won and at the age of ten it is hard to imagine him recapturing his best after such a long time in the wilderness.
Medermit hasn’t raced much in the past few seasons so I am assuming he’s had problems.
With doubts regarding nearly everything I can see the logic in taking one at a big price each-way but Medermit’s tally of wins over the bigger obstacles is limited to three novice chase wins and one handicap chase win, so this would be a big career best for him.
To be fair to Medermit he didn’t look too bad last time behind Menorah but he’s ten pounds worse in with the winner that day and his presence, more than three lengths ahead of Silviniaco Conti, that day is one of the alarm signals regarding the latter horse going into this race for me personally.
Trends for the race are obviously sparse and made even more so by Kauto Star having won four of the nine times it has been run. It would be a bit disappointing, for the bigger races to come, if the main contenders can’t outclass Medermit on Saturday and set up some rematches in the King George and Gold Cup.
He’ll probably hose in now having said that Joe
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I hope he does, Steve.
Yours is a fair summary. I just feel he is steadily working his way back after a two-year layoff and a trip now seems what he wants. It’s doubtful he’ll regain his old form, but with a kind of trappy looking race, I’m hoping he squeezes a place, and might just nick it. He’s entitled to come on for his last run…we shall see
With rain expected tonight, I’ve had a couple of quid ew on Harry Topper. Will look again at Silviniano Conti but I do worry that last year’s campaign might have bottomed him.
Could anyone local inform us as to the rain received overnight around Haydock please? Listed as soft, I wonder if that may not tell the whole story after a day’s racing and overnight rain.
Not much confidence behind Cue Card, Dynaste or Menorah.
Silviniaco Conti and Taquin De Seuil are the two that people seem to want to be with here.
Jonjo’s horse is a promising youngster but I think he needs to find something today and it surprises me that he could almost go off favourite here.
Bookmakers seem as confused overall as anybody, with a 97% book available across the boards.
Medermit is very weak and even Ladbrokes, who were alone in having him at a low of 16/1, have pushed him out to 25/1.
Silviniaco Conti would have been a confident pick for me today if he hadn’t put up such a tame effort in the Charlie Hall. Much was made on channel 4 that day about leaving a horse too short of fitness on their seasonal debut but if we believe that last year’s King George winner was fairly well straight in the Charlie Hall it begs the question as to why he folded without as much as a whimper.
A fascinating contest with a mix of profiles and someone could stamp themselves as the one to beat in the staying chases this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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