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We will just have to disagree,gingertipster, as Paul Nicholls himself said there were no excuses for Kauto Star’s defeat in the 2008 Gold Cup,he went off 5/4 favourite and Ruby Walsh was shell-shocked at the end of the race as he realised he had picked the wrong one !
Obviously,the respective SPs of the two horses in the following years race said it all,with Kauto Star odds on and,a much inferior, Denman a 7/1 shot,and, after that race Nicholls was thrilled as to how well Denman had run considering what he had been through in the previous summer.
Of course Nicholls was going to say "no excuses for Kauto", had he said anything different owners of the winner (including his landlord) would be livid! What did you expect? Did you really expect Nicholls to say "Denman won, but only because Kauto didn’t fire"?
… Yes, Walsh was "shell-shocked" at the end of Denman’s Gold Cup, he couldn’t believe it. But Walsh always knew who the better racehorse was, not once getting off Kauto to ride any horse, including Denman…It was indeed fantastic to see Denman run so well after heart troubles when second in Kauto’s second Gold Cup. Of course Nicholls is going to be "thrilled" with the run. After two disappointing efforts Nicholls obviously relieved/thrilled to see Denman on his way back to his best. Fact he also trained the WINNER also helped.
With any quote from connections – punters need to ask why are they saying those words? And, do they really mean anything? Read between the lines AS and deeds mean more than words.
Anyway AS, as I said, it’s not obvious who the better Cheltenham/3m2f horse was. Denman probably needed to go left-handed and best at Cheltenham and Newbury at 3m2f+. Despite Kauto’s two Gold Cups, form imo suggests he was better at Kempton and Haydock at 3m and shorter – than when racing at Cheltenham over 3m2f+.
Comparing Denman’s best form (at Cheltenham and Newbury) with Kauto Star’s best form (at Kempton and Haydock) imo it is fairly conclusive who the better horse was.
Value Is EverythingDon’t post often, but for what it’s worth…
Kauto Star was the classier, superior horse. Denman was a tank – the sort of horse who would gallop all day and all night long.
Kauto Star should have won the QMC in his younger days and if I’m being honest, I still privately think that 2miles-20 furlongs was his best distance. Denman would never have got close in that race. Kauto Star was never the sort of horse who was suited to 27 furlongs around one of the toughest courses in the country. It was the bucket-load of class which he had, which saw them lift the crown. Denman relished the Gold Cup trip – it played to his strengths.
Had they ever met over 3 miles or less at their peaks, Kauto Star would have run Denman into the ground. Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh knew that.
Denman is one of my favourite horses – I love grittiness and strength, but Kauto Star was an exceptional horse who had to go beyond his best trip to prove that. He will always be the superior of the two.
hard to know what way this race will turn out with the ground going the way it has i am starting to side with long run ive also noticed this thread has turned into a denman v kauto star so for what its worth heres my opinion
both where very good but denman when he won the gold cup was exceptional he had every other horse off the bridle with a mile to go he bullied the whole field into submission i dont think any horse past or present (with the exception of arkle ) who would of beaten denman that day although kauto was also brilliant time and time again. Around kempton he was imperious at his best probably unbeatable.Its strange because i would agree with people saying denman was more a staying type but then again looking at that gold cup win again he had it won from a long way out which would leave you to believe he could of probably won over a lot shorter in top company anyway lets just enjoy them for what they where two top class horsesI’ve always thought Long Run over-rated so won’t be betting him tomorrow. He also has problems bending his back when he comes under pressure, causing him to drag his rear legs through fences.
Since I first saw Silv Conti I’ve been unable to make up my mind about him. But I’ve never backed him in the past so will give him a miss tomorrow.
I like The Giant Bolster a lot (backed him in the Gold Cup), but I think there’s a fair chance he’s a Cheltenham specialist so will leave him out.
Cannington Brook’s another I admire and I think he will pick up a big handicap in bad ground, but he and WP out of their depth here.
That leaves Weird Al. Even on his best form it shouldn’t be enough to win this but the wizardry of McCain might well have wrought a fair bit of improvement. This will very much be his Gold Cup and if he doesn’t bleed, I’ll be hopeful of collecting: even with the bleed risk, I think 13/2 is acceptable.
Joe
Will Long Run be back to his best in this? Probably not.
Will he need to be at his best to win this? Probably not.
Will Long Run be good enough to win on Saturday? Don’t know.A lot will (I believe) depend on Long Run’s mind.
After winning both King George and Gold Cup in ear plugs, why (if going equally as well at home) would connections change a successful method last season? I asked Nicky this question at the West Berkshire Racing Club National Hunt Preview. Didn’t really answer the question fully, but said he’d wrongly wrote off Kauto Star before last year’s Betfair and did not have Long Run fit enough. Believing that experience hindered the horse all season, never able to get back to his best. This season, there won’t be much wrong with the horse’s fitness. However, although (as always) wearing ear plugs in the prelims, we were told he’ll probably start off at Haydock without them in the race.
In my opinion Long Run’s record suggests he both jumps and finishes better in ear plugs. Less distracted by the other horses at fences or by crowd noise at the finish. Therefore, must be another reason why his normally astute trainer is not using them. Could it be that connections knew/know Long Run was/is not showing the same sparkle at home as in the successful 2010/11 season and are still trying to sharpen him up by not using them? Make no mistake, if Long Run were at his best he’d be a great bet for Betfair, King George and Gold Cup at current prices.
Long Run is definitely getting to a price worth taking a chance on. If only I was allowed to bet with Stan James.
Silviniaco Conti is a very promising horse, benifit of a run, but has to improve quite a lot further if (quite a big if) Long Run is anywhere near his best. Impressed me at Wetherby the way he did it, but not convinced about the form. Time For Rupert and Planet Of Sound disappointing and Midnight Chase doesn’t seem to be the horse he was a couple of years ago either. SC chased home (11 lengths back) by 33/1 shot Wayward Prince, who’s chance here is once again dismissed (50/1 looks about right) by bookmakers and punters alike. What did SC beat? Win or lose, in my opinion shouldn’t be as close to Long Run in the betting.
The Giant Bolster should be an ex-carpet fitter’s bet. But will he jump as well this season? Will he be fit enough first time up? Will he act on the ground? Disappointed at Fontwell on probably the softest ground he’s encountered.
Thought I was going to tip Weird Al. Goes very well fresh and put up a good performance in this last season. Following home Kauto Star and Long Run. Seems as though I’ve missed the price, coming in for recent support. Will take a look in the morning.
Cannington Brook will have conditions to suit, but shouldn’t be good enough.
Value Is EverythingIt will be interesting to see what tactics, if any, SWC employs. Part of the reason I have sided with Silviniaco Conti over Long Run on this occasion, is the man on board.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Silviniaco Conti for me. The second season chasers look a top bunch this season and I’m taking SC to confirm that today. Don’t think he’ll mind the ground as he’s a true stayer, he’ll be razor sharp for his Charlie Hall win and the Nicholls yard are flying at the moment, Ruby is in great form too, loved his ride on Poungash yesterday.
Long Run has questions to answer although clearly if back to his best is a more than worthy fave, not sure the soft ground will suit him neither does Haydock imo. Throw in the jockey issue also and his suspect jumping (hope I’m wrong but he looks like he’s got a crashing fall in him to me) and he’s worth opposing.
Weird Al needs everything to fall right for him to win, can see why he’s popular as his record fresh is top notch but I couldn’t back him now at 5/1 as he is so fragile, well done to those who took a bigger price in the week.
The Giant Bolster might not like the ground and is possibly a Cheltenham specialist so is easily passed over for me.
I decided this is a no-bet race in the end, just one to enjoy and use as information for the rest of the season. I hope Silviniaco Conti wins though. Last year’s novices look like an exceptional group and this would further confirm that impression.
That was a good win for
Silviniaco Conti
and rather cosy too. Long Run bungled many of the fences at crucial times, but never seemed likely to get to the winner.
Paul Nicholls with have quite a task to keep his young horses apart around Christmas. I would like to see Silviniaco Conti + Kauto Stone run in the Lexus, with Al Ferof + Cristal Bonus in the KG. I guess we will see.
Young Fella: I think you’ll find Silviniano Conti will be put away now and saved for the gold cup
Young Fella: I think you’ll find Silviniano Conti will be put away now and saved for the gold cup
I was hoping this trend from last year of putting them away until Cheltenham was a thing of the past.
If it carries on NH Racing may as well shutdown from December until March.The Feltham Chase recorded a faster time than the King George last season.
The third, Bobs Worth, went on to win the RSA Chase. The second, Silviniaco Conti, has since landed the Mildmay Novice Chase, Charlie Hall and Betfair.
Will the real Grands Crus please stand up?
I don’t understand why S Conti won’t go for the King George. He’s done well on the track and there’s plenty of prize money. Also there’s enough time to get ready for the KG and plenty of time between the KG and the Gold Cup.
Is he really so exhausted by his easy win at Haydock that he will take several months to recover?
I don’t understand why S Conti won’t go for the King George. He’s done well on the track and there’s plenty of prize money. Also there’s enough time to get ready for the KG and plenty of time between the KG and the Gold Cup.
Is he really so exhausted by his easy win at Haydock that he will take several months to recover?
Perhaps it just shows that Paul Nicholls has such vast resources at the moment. There are at least three others who could target the race. I am surprised that he is not at least interested in the Lexus with Silviniaco Conti though. It is frustrating to see these horses ‘put away’ through the winter. I know the stable has an annual lull in January and early February due to vaccinations, but these are young horses. Even the notoriously fragile Kauto Star managed the Old Roan, Betfair, Tingle Creek, King George, AON and Gold Cup as a young horse. Surely the six year-old Silviniaco Conti could cope with a six race season too.
Imagine if Silviniaco Conti unseats at the first in the Gold Cup. Connections will come to regret missing opportunities to win races in the mid-season.
I don’t understand why S Conti won’t go for the King George. He’s done well on the track and there’s plenty of prize money. Also there’s enough time to get ready for the KG and plenty of time between the KG and the Gold Cup.
Is he really so exhausted by his easy win at Haydock that he will take several months to recover?
Perhaps it just shows that Paul Nicholls has such vast resources at the moment. There are at least three others who could target the race. I am surprised that he is not at least interested in the Lexus with Silviniaco Conti though. It is frustrating to see these horses ‘put away’ through the winter. I know the stable has an annual lull in January and early February due to vaccinations, but these are young horses. Even the notoriously fragile Kauto Star managed the Old Roan, Betfair, Tingle Creek, King George, AON and Gold Cup as a young horse. Surely the six year-old Silviniaco Conti could cope with a six race season too.
Imagine if Silviniaco Conti unseats at the first in the Gold Cup. Connections will come to regret missing opportunities to win races in the mid-season.
But are there enough opportunities TYF? Reading PN’s comments after the race underlines why I find it hard to get enthused about NH racing before March. He talks about not wanting to run him in the mud during the winter. Sorry – I thought that was what NH racing was all about?
The KG would be the obvious race but, as others have pointed out, PN has an embarrassment of riches for that race.
In my opinion the NH calender desperately needs something in between the KG and Cheltenham to tempt more trainers to run their good horses. My idea would be to bring Aintree forward to early Feb and make the Totesport Bowl a Grade 1. This would solve the problem of a fast ground National, would even out the festivals a bit so we don’t get Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown within 6 weeks and would give more incentive to owners and trainers to actually race their racehorses.
Of course it will never happen so we should all just get used to a season that gets going in November then ends in December.
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Good post Jonibake – couldn’t agree more. The obsession with 4 days in March is starting to ruin National Hunt.
… Yes, Walsh was "shell-shocked" at the end of Denman’s Gold Cup, he couldn’t believe it. But Walsh always knew who the better racehorse was, not once getting off Kauto to ride any horse, including Denman…
both where very good but denman when he won the gold cup was exceptional he had every other horse off the bridle with a mile to go he bullied the whole field into submission i dont think any horse past or present (with the exception of arkle ) who would of beaten denman that day although kauto was also brilliant time and time again. Around kempton he was imperious at his best probably unbeatable.Its strange because i would agree with people saying denman was more a staying type but then again looking at that gold cup win again he had it won from a long way out which would leave you to believe he could of probably won over a lot shorter in top company anyway lets just enjoy them for what they where two top class horses
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