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the big question is, can long run get back to where he was? was last season just a blip?
i’m willing to bet that this horse is on a downward trajectory. the class act no doubt, but worrying how he was beaten without seeming excuses in both the king george and gold cup.
the one I like at the prices is cue card. arkle form boosted further by al ferof yesterday and nick mordin seems to think he’s the fastest horse around. at 7-1 he’ll do for me.
silviano conti is on the up of course and is greatly feared, and if cue card doesn’t get the trip (which is the big worry) then I think he’ll take advantage, not long run.
the one I like at the prices is cue card. arkle form boosted further by al ferof yesterday and nick mordin seems to think he’s the fastest horse around. at 7-1 he’ll do for me.
I wouldn’t take that particular piece of form too seriously EGS. Al Ferof’s race was clearly lost from his hideous error 4 out, after which you’d have to say he ran no sort of race. You’d have to argue that he’s better than that on Saturdays’ showing and would surely have finished closer to, albeit not ahead of Sprinter Sacre with a clear round.
The one that interests me is Imperial Commander. True, he’s 11 and had 18 months off the track, which is obviously to be taken into consideration and he could be far too ring rusty for such a return. His record from fresh though is excellent. He’s won the race once before and was(apparently) just touched off by Kauto Star in his other running of the race. On his best form he’s officially rated higher than Long Run ever has been, and with the former champ showing early signs of decline I think the 7/1 knocking about for the older horse is decent value if he can run as well fresh as we’ve seen him do before.
The other fly in the ointment could be Silviniaco Conti. He oozed class last time out in the Charlie Hall, albeit against a pretty weak field. He is clearly a horse on the upgrade though, and like Wetherby, you’d think Haydock would play to his strengths. The only question would be, how good is he?
I found this on the betfair forum that I found quite amusing:
Brooksielad 18 Nov 12 20:44
Conti will win King George easy. Nicholls will have them both on the gallops together soon and after Conti gallops all over Al Ferof for the next few weeks I highly doubt he’ll run Al Ferof. Once conti makes Long Run look like a mug expect Conti to trade at Evs for thr King George then move into Kauto’s box in the new year.
I take what you are saying about al ferof but I still think that was a big run from cue card in the arkle, and theres a hope that he can improve for a longer trip.
the race really revolves around long run, whether you believe he’s back to his best (if he his he should really leave these for dead.)
but my gut feeling is he’ll not quite get back to where he was 2 years ago, and although he’ll still win big races and still be competitive, I don’t think he’ll have the class edge over the opposition that he once had.as for imperial commander, he can certainly go well fresh, but it’s surely a big ask winning this after so long off the track, he’s now getting rather long in the tooth and for that reason theres surely a question mark over him. Ok kauto won this at an advanced age but he was the best chaser we’ve seen in the last 40 years.
cue card is now a non-runner. presumably he’ll go straight for the king george. nine left in, I think i’ll have a swing at the nicholls horse because he was impressive last time, and 3-1 is a reasonable price given the question marks about the rest of the field
the one I like at the prices is cue card. arkle form boosted further by al ferof yesterday and nick mordin seems to think he’s the fastest horse around. at 7-1 he’ll do for me.
I wouldn’t take that particular piece of form too seriously EGS. Al Ferof’s race was clearly lost from his hideous error 4 out, after which you’d have to say he ran no sort of race. You’d have to argue that he’s better than that on Saturdays’ showing and would surely have finished closer to, albeit not ahead of Sprinter Sacre with a clear round.
The one that interests me is Imperial Commander. True, he’s 11 and had 18 months off the track, which is obviously to be taken into consideration and he could be far too ring rusty for such a return. His record from fresh though is excellent. He’s won the race once before and was(apparently) just touched off by Kauto Star in his other running of the race. On his best form he’s officially rated higher than Long Run ever has been, and with the former champ showing early signs of decline I think the 7/1 knocking about for the older horse is decent value if he can run as well fresh as we’ve seen him do before.
The other fly in the ointment could be Silviniaco Conti. He oozed class last time out in the Charlie Hall, albeit against a pretty weak field. He is clearly a horse on the upgrade though, and like Wetherby, you’d think Haydock would play to his strengths. The only question would be, how good is he?
Plus NTD is a master at getting horses back fit from a long lay off. He’s my bet in this and in the Gold Cup (50/1 is incredible).
Imperial Commander out until January at the earliest with a minor fracture unrelated to previous injuries.
Has to be a major doubt he’s placed in Group 1 company again.
I think they should retire him now. surely you can’t take so much time out at such an advanced age
I agree with the calls to retire Imperial Commander.
This year’s Betfair Chase was his big chance to get another Grade 1. He doesn’t operate on sharp tracks (and arguably also quick ground), so the King George, Aintree Bowl and Punchestown Gold Cup are all unsuitable for him. The Gold Cup is probably beyond him at 12 too.
Also, you have to suspect that the horse was still feeling some twinges in his original tendon injury since he has got injured so soon again. Horses tend to compensate and put more pressure on other legs when they are feeling pain on one side.
I recall Weird Al going well fresh was looking at taking some 12s e/w last week but decided against it, with the 8 runners that would look a nice bet. It all revolves around whether Long Run is up for it really, doesn’t it? My answer would be yes, yes he is.
Im hoping for a bit of 2/1 from a nice bookie on Sat morning.
I agree with the calls to retire Imperial Commander.
This year’s Betfair Chase was his big chance to get another Grade 1. He doesn’t operate on sharp tracks (and arguably also quick ground), so the King George, Aintree Bowl and Punchestown Gold Cup are all unsuitable for him. The Gold Cup is probably beyond him at 12 too.
Also, you have to suspect that the horse was still feeling some twinges in his original tendon injury since he has got injured so soon again. Horses tend to compensate and put more pressure on other legs when they are feeling pain on one side.
I spoke too soon…according to reports this particular injury is completely separate from the original one, but as an older horse he might need longer to recover. I’m not sure if they should retire him after this set back, we’ll know more in a few weeks I guess what the state of play is. I do hope we see him again, one of the best in the modern era IMO.
Will Long Run be back to his best in this? Probably not.
Will he need to be at his best to win this? Probably not.
Will Long Run be good enough to win on Saturday? Don’t know.A lot will (I believe) depend on Long Run’s mind.
After winning both King George and Gold Cup in ear plugs, why (if going equally as well at home) would connections change a successful method last season? I asked Nicky this question at the West Berkshire Racing Club National Hunt Preview. Didn’t really answer the question fully, but said he’d wrongly wrote off Kauto Star before last year’s Betfair and did not have Long Run fit enough. Believing that experience hindered the horse all season, never able to get back to his best. This season, there won’t be much wrong with the horse’s fitness. However, although (as always) wearing ear plugs in the prelims, we were told he’ll probably start off at Haydock without them in the race.
In my opinion Long Run’s record suggests he both jumps and finishes better in ear plugs. Less distracted by the other horses at fences or by crowd noise at the finish. Therefore, must be another reason why his normally astute trainer is not using them. Could it be that connections knew/know Long Run was/is not showing the same sparkle at home as in the successful 2010/11 season and are still trying to sharpen him up by not using them? Make no mistake, if Long Run were at his best he’d be a great bet for Betfair, King George and Gold Cup at current prices.
Value Is EverythingMight have an ew on Wayward Prince
. Ran very well in the Charlie Hall and was a very good horse a couple of years back.
Happy with Weird Al at 12s as he goes well fresh but have taken some 33s about Cannington Brook at 33s EW for 3 reasons:
1. The rain is still coming and he loves the going as soft as can be.
2. He has very good course form and the trainer is in form.
3. I can see this field cutting up even more so the 2 place opportunities will increase and he will run onNot sure that Weird Al has the class to trouble the top two…think all roads will lead to Aintree with him to be honest.
Think Long Run will win this comfortably.
Winning this and the King George last year, Ruby may well have an ace up his sleeve with regards to getting Long Run beat. If he were to deploy similar front running tactics on board Silviniaco Conti on Saturday as he did with Kauto Star, I could quite easily see the cracks resurfacing in Long Run’s jumping. I’d rather back the Nicholls horse at this stage, especially given Long Run’s record first time out.
Kauto Star is not the best chaser seen in the past 40 years.His own stablemate,Denman,proved superior three times out of the four they met and it would have been all four but for suffering from his debiliating heart problem.
Long Run also beat him three times out of their five meetings, and, I fully expect Long Run to be fitter for this years race than he was for last years, which was seen as a pipe-opener for both King George and Gold Cup though he was unable to match his performances of the previous season.
The actual ground will be key as to who actually runs in the race, and, if it becomes a bog then it is a watching race only.
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