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Extensive interview on Long Run with NJ Henderson
Thanks for that.
Nicky mentions his comfort zone and how important it is and that’s my worry.
He definitely goes to pieces if he comes under pressure and I can’t see him not doing so at some point in the King George.
As far as the Betfair Chase goes they say he’s impossible to oppose but I’d think twice about taking a short price about him if Kauto turns up.
It’s a safe bet Nicky won’t have Long Run 100% with bigger fish to fry later.
Much depends on how PN sees things. Despite having won the race 3 times he always left a fair bit to work on with the King George on the horizon.
They may feel Kauto has no chance of beating Long Run in the King George but if he’s a bit short at Haydock he could be vulnerable.
Nothing of course is that simple and they could end up playing second and third fiddle to Time For Rupert.
Much depends on how he comes out of his race at Wetherby. He will need the run and if he goers anywhere near to winning his next race will be the Betfair and not the Hennessy. Paul prefers the easier option
Currently 15 on the machine those odds will fall through the floor if he runs a big race on Saturday.
I reckon he has the ability and the speed to beat them both.
Time For Rupert
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I reckon he has the ability and the speed to beat them both.
Time For Rupert
So you keep saying – though it took him all of Aintree’s 3m to get on top of the relatively modesr Inchidaly Rock over hurdles, and it’s no coincidence he hasn’t run on a sharp track since.
Well you’re going back a bit are you not? Plus he’s a 7 year old who’s only had 14 runs in his entire life.
Just out of the novice stage 2 1/2 years ago completely unfancied, led from along way out in a gruelling race where some decent animals finished strung out like washing. I’d say he acted more than ok on a so called sharp track.
That aside Haydock is nothing like Aintree the similarity between the two was born through the old drop fences and ends there.
Haydock is more akin to Newbury a fair galloping track that lends itself to true run races. You need to have speed and stamina to keep tabs on good horses in top class company there as we saw when Imperial Commander and Kauto clashed and left the rest miles behind.
Time For Rupert lacks nothing in either department.
Paul Webber’s reason for running Time For Rupert 6 times on the trot at Cheltenham was to gain experience and prepare him for the World Hurdle and the RSA and hopefully pick up some good prize money along the way. He did exactly that
He took the best possible options at the time and had a trial like the Cleeve Hurdle been run at Haydock or sunny Sedgefield then he’d have gone there.
He has done nothing but improve util he met with a setback and is very much a horse to follow. I reckon he’d pick up the likes of Riverside Theatre and carry him and he’ll prove a much tougher nut to crack for Long Run than he was.
Nicky Henderson is obviously still concerned about Long Run’s jumping as Yogi B is still working on him to try and get him to change his old ways. As brilliant as he looked at Kempton and Cheltenham I’m still not sure that pressure applied he won’t revert back to his suicidal tendencies of not taking off until his head is already half way cross the fence.
There’s plenty reason for fancying Long Run but there’s plenty reasons to take him on as well and I intend to go with the latter.
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Dear, oh dear, HGM.
While I have the greatest of respect for Time For Rupert, the whole of his form points to his needing a stiff test, and you just don’t run ‘speed’ horses over 26f at Cheltenham on only their 2nd outing over fences. Wetherby isn’t a stiff track any longer, and Saturday’s race looks no more than a warm-up for the Hennessy, imo.
Haydock btw, is nothing like Newbury, and since the course was redesigned the bends are even sharper than they were previously. No surprise then, in the race you mention, to see the 2 principals draw away from dour stayers such as Halcon Genelardais and Notre Pere in the last 6f. It was speed, not stamina, that enabled them to do that, as I illustrated at the time with the use of sectionals.Can I be your bookie for the Hennesssy
. Time For Rupert hasn’t grown since last year but has filled out. Paul said" He is not Denman and if he runs well on Saturday he’ll get top weight so he’ll be going for the Betfair if all is well.While he could run well tomorrow, even win, he is very likely to need the run as his first piece of serious work on the grass was, I believe, no more than 10 days ago.
That aside don’t kid yourself about Wetherby it’s still a fair test. Last Year Ollie and Nacarat set them a merry gallop and they had gone such a clip, the would be speedier types like Barber Shop and Deep Purple coudn’t even lie up with the grey from 7 out. With Nacarat running again and if Midnight Chase takes his chance it will be a blistering gallop from flag fall and you can bet your life a combination of speed and stamina will be all important.
PW ran Time For Rupert over the longer trip last season as he was preparing him for the RSA and he sees him as a possible Gold Cup horse. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t retain the speed that allowed him to run away away from Hell’s Bay who went on to outpoint ex champion hurdle horse Medermit. If this was run in a fortnight instead of tomorrow I would have absolutely no hesitation in backing him
I’d expect him to get a bit behind tomorrow and be running on near the finish and as I say if he travels as he can Diamond Harry may be the only horse who has a chance of beating the 2 front runners. I think Poquelin will travel well for a while but doubt if he has the ability to quicken off a really strong pace when it matters.
If they get too easy a lead it could turn out to be a Nacarat and Midnight Chase benefit race with rest nowhere but Diamond Harry should be sharp enough to keep in touch with ease and take this. Pretty much how the bookies see it so not rocket science.
I think you lose either way. If Time For Ruper wins you’ll say drat and if he loses I’ll say he needed the run
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HGM
Educating you could prove a bigger task than Ginger.
IIRC, the weights are already out for the Hennessey, so unless TFR actually wins, he’ll be off exactly te same mark he is now. He generally needs a run, and has started each of the past 3 seasons over a trip short of his best.
Diamond Harry, conversely, tends to run up light and needs space between his races, so is likely to be fit and ready tomorrow, as he has been for the past 2 seasons.
Nacarat only just gets 3m, and has been found wanting – even round the sharper tracks – when the pace or ground has been searching. That wasn’t the case at Wetherby last year and he may well get away with it this, though the recent rain and the 10lb extra mitigates against him.
I’d also suggest Poquelin is running here because, if he won’t get 3m round here, he’s unlikely to get it anywhere.You right Reet I should take your advice and back Time For Rupert
I’ve been on the phone tonight and when I said I was backing DH as they say he’s cantering over everything. A voice asks cantering over what? the man can’t buy a winner his horses are running like camels?
It’s not really a betting race for me as I am only interested in how Time For Rupert runs so stuff it I’m backing him and crossing my fingers.
BTW wtf is Ginger? is that that weird guy with the Mohichan haircut and a
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BTW wtf is Ginger? is that that weird guy with the Mohichan haircut and a
Nah – this one wouldn’t have a forehead.
Grands Crus is an intriguing runner. If he has a knack for fences he could win at long odds. Presumably if he wasn’t any good he wouldn’t be entered for this race so the Pipe stable must think he is training well.
In the spirit of the moment of silly posts I’ll join in
Mortgage your house and Lay Long Gun
Kauto sounds ready to marmalize them. Perhaps a glorious swansong. Though he’d presumably run in the KG and/or Gold Cup, I wouldn’t care to bet on him again, if he
were
to win here.
I dont think long run will win as he might need the race
I could be interested in kauto star or diamond harry at decent odds tho
Looks to be a cracking race- Total Posts 17716
Listening to Sam Waley-Cohen on CH4 last week, Long Run has had intensive schooling recently, so it may be folly to suppose the horse is going into the race half cooked.
It maybe folly to oppose Long Run, in any case, but I would expect an edge on fitness on the part of Kauto, primarily, rather than jumping technique, though Nicholls has given no indcation that Long Run’s not on tip-top form. But is it likely he would be at concert pitch?
Will he need to be? Maybe aye, maybe no, maybe, och the noo.
We shall see, alas. Or jubilation, as the case may be.
. Time For Rupert hasn’t grown since last year but has filled out. Paul said" He is not Denman and if he runs well on Saturday he’ll get top weight so he’ll be going for the Betfair if all is well.
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