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Yes, I know Nicholls was keen on Down Royal, whilst Smith preferred Haydock, but there must be a REASON why he didn’t run at Down Royal.
It look like I might have been misguided by the weather forecast. I went by this:-
The Met Office have issued "be aware" weather warnings for the Merseyside region over the next few days in light of the forecast.
A spokeswoman said: "We have weather warnings out for Thursday and Friday in the Merseyside area. There will be wet and windy weather with gales up to 60mph.
"The rain will be heavy at times with between 30-50mm on Thursday and the same again on Friday."
However, when one looks at the weather forecast for Haydock (St Helens), then there is very little rain expected Thursday, and not as much as indicated for Friday either. I’d like to know when the spokeswoman made those comments. Rain still expected Saturday though. Maybe they are having that rain beforehand, but only on high ground???
Only bet I’d care for is Nozic e/w @ 40-1. Halcon Generlardais is being supported probably because of the ground but think he’s essentially a traveller on the ground and not sure if he needs further on it.
I’d been thinking that Nozic was a certain runner in the Becher . . .
edit:
okay, only just found out it has been declared for this. I find it a bit confusing which jumps races have 48 hour deccies, and which ones don’t.
Nozic put in a magnificent jumping display at Wetherby, but wasn’t the same for the rest of the season. I think quite a few of us were burnt by this one at some stage last season.
I know I’m useless at G1s, so there is no pressure on me to pick the winner, and I can just enjoy watching the race, whatever the result.
Nine Declared for Saturday:
HALCON GENELARDAIS
IMPERIAL COMMANDER
KAUTO STAR
MADISON DU BERLAIS
NOTRE PERE
NOZIC
RAMBLING MINSTER
SEYMOUR WELD
THE SAWYERInitially, I fancied MDB, but closer inspection of his record on seasonal debut reveals he invariably needs the run.
’08 6 /12 btn 31L
’07 4 / 7 btn 15L
’06 8 /11 btn 37LImperial Commander, coversely, has a most impressive first time out record, but his record when venturing over three miles is poor.
09/12/06 6 / 8 btn 63L
13/ 4/ 07 3/10 btn 22L
14/12/07 4 / 4 btn 39L
26/12/08 6 /10 btn 72L
29/ 4/ 09 PULLED UPChepstow is once again the main target for Halcon Genlardias, but he has acquitted himself admirably on his reappearance the past three years (form lines read 132) and will love the conditions. With question marks hanging over the afforementioned duo, I can see him reaching a place.
This appears to be a dual between Kauto Star and Notre Pere. The latter wuldn’t normally see which way KS went, but he has had the benefit of a run and will relish the conditions. His Punchestowns Gold Cup win still leaves him with a lot to find, however, and Kauto Star would have to be in serious need of the run for him to get close.
Kauto Star needs to be fresh to show his best these days and anything other than heavy won’t pose a problem.
He record on soft ground has been exemplary and he should still be too good for these if retaining all his old abilty and zest. As a 9YO, there’s no reason to think why he shouldn’t.
Paul Nicholls handling of the horse has been near perfect and he wouldn’t risk the wellbeing of his stable star if he didn’t think he could run up to his best.
Somewhere close to his best and he wins. My idea of the first three:
1 Kauto Star
2 Notre Pere
3 Halcon GenelardaisGerald, as Grasshopper has said, the reason he did not go to Down Royal was because he’s coming here!
This has actually turned out to be an easier assignment for Kauto than the Down Royal race imo. It’s between him and Notre Pere
I’m not sure that people have got their heads around yet how Heavy the going will be – there’s a meteorological BEWARE warning for the Merseyside area, and they are expecting in excess of an inch of rain on both Thursday and Friday (this when the going report is already Soft, Heavy in places). [Admittedly, the BEWARE warning may be more due to the gales.]
Can’t make my mind up about how much of that stone in hand Kauto will have been prepped for. On one hand, it is his seasonal debut, on the other he’s only having the two runs before Cheltenham.
Also, the horse didn’t run at Down Royal, when that was the plan.
What is the story behind that non-appearance?
Scared of having a hard race against Notre Pere?
The bonus for winning this, the King George and the Gold Cup got changed last year, didn’t it? Something to do with the GN. What is the Betfair Bonus scheme this year?
I must admit to fearing for Kauto this week,he hates haydock..no doubt about it imo. Also has to take on the leikes of notre pere in a bog.Add that to Kauto probably not being fully wound up.Just hope he doesnt have a mishap like last year.
I would have loved Kauto to go what i call the Best Mate route…Peterborough,KG,GC.
I think he’ll have to really battle tomorrow but the Peterborough is too close to the KG nowadays (Dec 10) so this is the only option really.
And he did win this race by 17L in a common canter in 2006 so he ain’t too shabby round there…
he’s got a jockey this year too. no cardboard cutout riding him,or should i say trying to ride him.
if he was mine id be running kauto star in the amlin chase at ascot instead,would put him spot on for kempton.
lets hope kauto dosent leave a 4th king george behind in the haydock mud!if he was mine id be running kauto star in the amlin chase at ascot instead,would put him spot on for kempton.
lets hope kauto dosent leave a 4th king george behind in the haydock mud!Can’t understand why he wasn’t entered for the race, myself.
I share your concerns about the possibility of him leaving a fourth King George at Haydock (although it does contradict my final analysis of the race!).
After the untimely deaths of One Man and Best Mate, it’s natural to be a tad jittery. He’s the most popular horse in our sport and has now reached a stage in his career when he’s on the verge of something very, very special. We don’t want to see anything bad happen to him. Complete you legacy Kauto (whether it’s this season or next), then enjoy your retirement!
I have faith in Clive, Paul and Ruby and, win or lose, all being well, he’ll still be the one to beat at Kempton.
This could be a great race. Madison Du Berlais will probably go off quickly infront, and Notre pere will kick on maybe 4 out (well, that’s probably something similar to the plan). If Kauto turns up 95% he should win, but Notre Pere will be some hard horse to pass, that’s all i know
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I still think Kauto Star will win even if it’s hock deep. He’s crazy price at 5/4 considering PN said a couple of months ago he looked better than he’s ever seen him come back from his summer hols. I honestly thought he’d be odds on by now so I backed him again but ibn a double with Dunguib for the Royal Bond…………crazy? maybe but pays over 2/1
The Sawyer who acts on ground gets pulled out on the day of the race to narrow it down to a field of 7. Why was this Belgian elephant even entered in the first place ?
I think Kauto will win comfortably in the end. It’s just unfair on the punters who went for the e/w gamble. And no, i haven’t had a bet.
It all well saying he got beat at Haydock last year. To some that means he succeptable to another defeat, to me it means the team can learn from any mistakes they made.
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