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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/23/haydock/2025-11-22/905576
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/betfair-chase/winner
This is usually all about Royal Pagaille for me, but he’s already short enough this year, and if I don’t back him, I could handle missing him if he wins
The one I really like though is Beauport. Loads to fund, but outran his odds before, and if I knew he wasn’t getting another entry elsewhere, I’d be betting him EW at the 33’s. The potential targets elsewhere is the big problem
This also applies to Haiti Couleurs at 14’s, and particularly Myretown at 25’s
Throw in Stellar Story, Resplendent Grey, and Mr Vango, making this one to stall on right now.
I do genuinely like Beauport though, and I’ll closely watch the entries elsewhere
Beauport
Monday decs…
Grey Dawning
Haiti Couleurs
Handstands
Hitman
Marsh Wren
Royal Pagaille
Stellar StoryWith just one good ground running (2018) in the last 20 years, and rain forecast, Saturday’s field faces one of the most taxing races of any season. If I had a good horse I’d never run it in The Betfair, a gut-buster of a race. One where the memory of the pain can stay with the principals for a long time, as well as the physical fallout.
Dan Skelton looked ashen-faced at the end of last year’s race, when Grey Dawning gave every ounce. Yet the trainer had him out again a month later in the King George (pulled up). He won in March at Kelso, his sole victory of the season. Skelton’s self-evidently a smart man, yet he seems set on putting his Gold Cup hope through the same trauma come Saturday.
The 2024 winner Royale Pagaille – ultra tough Haydock specialist – never recovered from that win last season. His record at Haydock when winning the 2024 Betfair was 11211. In two runs at Haydock after that he pulled up and finished 9th. Even horses as tough as he is can be taken beyond the pain barrier once too often. I believe he might well back out of it again on Saturday, as might Grey Dawning.
That leaves the young Haiti Couleurs, Irish Grand National and NH Chase winner, who won on this seasonal debut over hurdles in early November. He has a few pounds to find on paper with the top notchers, but, crucially, he has no Haydock scars to remember as he canters down on Saturday. Trainer Curtis wouldn’t risk her best horse unless confident it will do him no damage. At 8 he is mature enough for it, has no stamina concerns, has won 5 of his last 6 (3rd in a Newbury handicap hurdles in the other). I wouldn’t say he’s outstanding value at 7/2, but Rebecca Curtis seems set on running, whereas Mr Skelton might just take cold feet as the rain reaches his ankles.
The promising mare Marsh Wren is down to run, but, reading between the lines, it seems an owner target rather than a trainer and would be some challenge after a year off.
Hitman’s an intriguing entry. Finally won a race last time at Aintree, but nowhere in equine scripture can I find the possible stamina miracle that would see him home.
Pauling thinks plenty of 6-y-o Handstands. I wonder if his jumping will hold up as the screw slowly turns in the straight? Too skinny at 6/1.
Stellar Story is an Irish entry for Elliott. Doesn’t quite look up to it on form, but has won on his seasonal debut (November) in last 2 seasons, and if the top two end up running scared, could be the EW bet.
Good luck
Joe
I’m with you on Stellar Story, Steeplechasing. He’s fresh, unexposed and, crucially, stays longer than the proverbial mother-in-law.
Taken the 11-1 e/w
2-5mm expected on Saturday morning and mainly dry in the lead up so it’ll be soft but maybe not the bog it can be with that forecast. No worries about Grey Dawning on that score as he is a soft ground horse anyway. The form Dan Skelton’s chasers were in, in the big races last week, I’m not expecting anything different here.
Nice preview Joe, thanks for that.
I see that Grey Dawning is the only horse rated above 160 (with 166) in the race. There were no winners rated below 160 in the past 12 years, most likely the same when looking at a longer period (with Kauto Star, Long Run or Silviniaco Conti among those winners). Royal Pagaille and Bristol De Mai were the ones rated at 160, the rest had an OR of 164 or higher.
9 of the past 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9 (no big surprise there) and 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 23-25 furlongs. Also worth mentioning the fact that 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 4 wins previous chase wins. Which narrows this down to just one or two horses that can be backed at 11/8 or 10/3.
No bet for me at the moment.
It certainly the most gruelling Uk open grade one Chase and while seasons are being ruined at Haydock,Irish horses have a much better starting point in The John Durkan.
I’ve backed Grey Dawning at 40’s for the king George thinking dodgy Dan wouldnt be as foolhardy as to bottom the horse out so early in the season again. Can’t get my head around his reasoning to run him in it due to “unfinished business” as he puts it.
Tizaards I wouldn’t be surprised if the trainer goes the Betfair Chase then, if he were to win it, either the Cotswold Chase or the Denman Chase with the horse thereafter, so space out the first 2 runs before a Gold Cup attempt.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Skelton pulled Grey Dawning out.
The more I know the less I understand.
RTB why would he? It may well be the horse’s best chance this season to bag a grade 1.
He’s quite clear on ratings and you have the excellent stable form and too many question marks surrounding the rest. I would let him run unless it becomes “Haydock heavy”.
Venetia is 1 from 17 for the season and 0 from 13 in the past 14 days, but that wasn’t much different last season. She has one entered on Thursday and three more on Friday, hoping they’ll tell us more about the current stable form.
I’m inclined to agree with you now actually Mike. Since it’s become clear that Mullins is sending a few over for the King George I can’t see Skelton running his in it.
But it’s still a risky move running him here if he has spring festival targets imo. This race isn’t a prep for anything! Good prize in its own right but it puts more than 3 miles on the clock!
“We tried him right handed in the KG last year but we wont do that again”
Stable tour from DS..
So run here then hell have a long rest probably..
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I dont think the betfair needs to be the end of a horses season. Kauto, Cue card, a plus tard (bound to be others) have all won and then went onto win GCs, KGs and other good races.
The ground doesn’t look quite as bad this year. Its a grade 1 and should be targeted as such especially as the irish ignore it, the British trainers should be going their ends to win it – Grey Dawning, L’homme presse, Jango Baie, handstands, jukebox man whoever, should all be looking at this race as a winnable G1 – circumstances allowing.
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