Ascot Chase 2011

[shmeeko69]

Looking at tomorrow’s big race at Ascot, it looks like it could be between Riverside Theatre and the Prince of Dulcote. Both get the distance ok and are fine on the present ground conditions of GS/Good in places. If the ground dries out then, this will suit Riverside Theatre slightly better than the Prince of Dulcote. This once again would appear to be a battle of the two top trainers in jumps racing Nicholls v Henderson with Nicholls having a reasonable strike rate of 18% for his trained horses over Ascot fences and Henderson with an excellent 28% strike rate over fences at Ascot.

Mark

[Bosranic]

Deep Purple

retains plenty of ability, judged on his third in the Charlie Hall, and has two victories to his name at this venue in as many starts.

One could argue that he has yet to recapture his very best form in four starts since breaking a blood vessel in the 2009 King George, but his trainer has targeted this contest specifically since his poor effort at Newbury and, providing there is no substantial rain, I see him running a big race.

[trapper john]

would agree this looks between riverside theatre and pride of dulcote but i couldnt help but have a very small each way bet on racing demon 40/1 is massive

[nulty]

Pride of Dulcote has gone horribly wrong. Hope he pulls through but theres almost no hope from the pictures.

[grey dolphin]

Great shame about Pride of Dulcote. Never know how good he might have been now.

I wish they would supplement Riverside Theatre for Gold Cup. This is a perfect example of how the Ryanair has provided options that seriously weaken the big one – although before anyone else says so, he would have been eligible for the Cathcart but that race didn’t have the prestige.

[johnjdonoghue]

If Riverside Theatre was mine, I’d bypass Cheltenham and go to Aintree. IMO he is best on a flat track, the Melling chase could be his for the taking.

Very sad about Pride of Dulcote.

JohnJ

[moehat]

Don’t quote me on this, but I thought I’d read that that’s what connections were planning to do, because I was quite surprised about him missing Cheltenham. [trainer said wasn’t ruling anything out or anything in, including missing Cheltenham and going straight to Aintree; horse didn’t like Cheltenham much last year, did he?]

[grey dolphin]

IMHO horse didn’t like Cheltenham last year because he was running in a race where they were going too fast for him! Stayed on like a train at the end.

[JJMSports]

Riverside Theatre was mightily impressive. Does anyone know if the horse has an entry for The Ryanair?

[cormack15]

He sure does and is currently 2nd fav behind Poquelin.

[cormack15]

The thing I’d be concerned about with Riverside Theatre is that 6 of his 8 wins have come right-handed (2 at Ascot and 4 at Kempton plus, of course, his runner-up berth in the King George). Both his wins left-handed have come when odds on at Newbury (in a Novice Hurdle and a Beginner’s Chase).

I think the Ryanair is the best option but I’d be a watcher rather than a better at Cheltenham.

[Gingertipster]

It is true that Riverside Theatre has a 66% strike rate Right handed and 33% going left.

But as a novive hurdler, he showed significant improvement when fourth in the Top Novices Hurdle at Aintree. Sometimes there is too much attension made of "wins", it is performance rating we should look at and if there were other reasons for defeat.

Outpaced in the Arkle early over a wholey inadequate trip, before staying on best of all at the finish. As a rating, I doubt if it was much (if at all) behind any other of his novice chase runs. And it would have been much better if the race were over another 5 furlongs (like the Ryanair).

I’ve seen Riverside Theatre win twice at Newbury, very impressive in the novice chase. It is a slight concern he’s run right handed the last four runs; horses get used to going one way around. But in my opinion it is marginal and far outweighed by being such outstanding value @ 7/1. Must have almost as good chance as Poquelin, and he is 4/1.

Value Is Everything

[Anonymous]

Yeah but for statistics to be relevant you need at least 15 entries at the minium preferably 30 is the standard, which is why 66% right and 33% left is tottaly irelevant.

6 runs left handed
321415

9 runs right handed
11131F121

[Gingertipster]

Sometimes Mr W, you can tell an RH / LH bias with a lot less than 15 runs. It can be relevent, all depends on the evidence. There is very little evidence of Riverside Theatre needing a right handed course, though it should be looked at again after every run.

Value Is Everything

[Author]

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