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My experience of betting at sp is broadly similar to Betlarges. I back horses, not prices, which I still believe is the essence of succesful punting.<br>Value betting is over-rated imo, in that trying to figure out markets is no straightforward task, and just an extra complication which serves to confuse that which needs to be simplified to gain any real understanding.<br>Sure enough, when I do arrive at a selection I have a loose idea of the price it should be, and I will take the price if it’s significantly over that but, more and more these days, early markets are ludicrously tight and I will place a bet at sp, rather than waste considerable time trying to gain an slight edge from markets throughout the day.<br>It often works too, as in many races where I bet, sp is often significantly above any early price offered; that hasn’t always been the case over the years, but early prices aren’t nearly as generous, or as widely varying, as they once were, nor do they reflect the eventual sp, except of course, at the smaller meetings where they are more open to manipulation.<br>Not everyones cup of tea I know, but I do firmly believe that it’s still a game of backing winners, and that ‘value’ is often a crutch for a lame approach from the outset. <br>
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……….. A case in point being the listed race at Nottingham today.<br>Best available bookmaker prices at 10.00 am:
The Last Drop          13/8<br> Geordieland            5/2<br> Hawridge Place          9/2<br> Group Captain           7/1
Even at best prices approximately a 95% book, on only half the field, with Betfair offering no better, apart from the outsider of the 4.       <br>It’s a fair bet, even in a weak and easily manipulated market like Nottingham, that returned sp’s will beat at least 3 of those prices.
agree with a lot of the above..most especially reet
You need to clear the mind and focus on the single objective. Thats hard enough
One reason why i dislike e/w betting too
Obsessing on one single factor is huge mistake too. (ie speed ratings)
Underrated factors for me are;
1. trainer trends and trainer comments (once we know the trainers general attitude of course)
2. paddock inspection. its a myth you need to be an "expert"
betting too frequently is a mistake of course. I let that slip when i actually go racing of course, but even then sitting out a race or two without any interest is not a crime
I think it helps if you are not a natural gambler too. best to have a genuine interest in the sport and punt accordingly ratehr tahn see it as an alternative to casinos or the dogs
But (without being a total creep..:) ) the best pieces of advice i have found, were in AP’s books
<br>Underrated factors for me are;
1. trainer trends and trainer comments (once we know the trainers general attitude of course)
2. paddock inspection. its a myth you need to be an "expert"
I would agree on both counts.. You don’t need to be an expert in the paddock to know if something doesn;t look right.
Quote: from reet hard on 10:18 am on April 4, 2007[br]……….. A case in point being the listed race at Nottingham today.<br>Best available bookmaker prices at 10.00 am:
The Last Drop          13/8<br> Geordieland            5/2<br> Hawridge Place          9/2<br> Group Captain           7/1
Even at best prices approximately a 95% book, on only half the field, with Betfair offering no better, apart from the outsider of the 4.       <br>It’s a fair bet, even in a weak and easily manipulated market like Nottingham, that returned sp’s will beat at least 3 of those prices.<br>
<br>At around 8 o’clock this morning you could’ve got 3.45 The Last Drop on Betfair. Favouritism was too-ing and fro-ing a bit between he and Geordieland.
Some interesting posts in this thread.
I think the most vital thing I can suggest is specialising and compiling your own handicap, don’t rely on the Racing Posts. One race today I have the winner seven pounds different to the RPR, it makes a big difference. <br>
"Best advice you’ve had "
Replies to the thread "how to compile a tissue" imhaho
(Edited by empty wallet at 10:22 pm on April 4, 2007)
Quote: from Cavelino Rampante on 12:38 am on April 4, 2007[br]have a contrarian personality <br>
<br>This is it for me too ..
Someone wiser than me will know who these words should be attributed to, but a 19th century trainer gave his son (who was to become a noted punter) three pieces of advice re betting.
1: Never bet.
2: If you must bet, bet big.
3: Never bet at short odds.
Sounds like stunningly poor advice at first glance, but the more time goes on, the more it seems like genius.
It is often said that you should back selectively.I was always in agreement with this but since betfair arrived on the scene I have changed completely -you have practically 100% books at all times.At the weekend I would play in practically every race taking guaranteed profits whenever they arise.
Don’t bet when you feel down
Don’t bet when your p**s
ed – that 33/1 shot that looks a cert or the chap on the train you gave you is 33/1 for a reason.It sounded like a cert though – had been in pub with the lads for a bit in Liverpool and this ex-Irish horse was running in the finale, the bloke on train had been on the phone all time and told us it would hack up – well me mates wanted to back it soooooo we had a bit ew on and topped up on the win market.
Oh and it got stuffed. ;)
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