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<br>OK, Kauto Star was great, but there’s another big race tomorrow.
No firm opinions, but in looking at the race, I found myself wondering if any other horse has ever matched the record of Another Rum.
He’s only won one race over fences, but it was at the Cheltenham Festival. Surely that must be unique, or is it?
AP
Off the top of my head, Sudden Shock won his only chase at the 2003 festival and I’ve never seen a horse so tired afterwards, not surprisingly he did nothing else after that.
Wasn’t his first chase win unfortunately – won a chase at Aintree the year before. Can’t think of one myself yet…..but I have not given up yet.
Cancel the above comments – it was his first chase win – well remembered. It’s late on saturday and I’m even dozier than normal;)
(Edited by SwallowCottage at 10:08 pm on Nov. 18, 2006)<br>
(Edited by SwallowCottage at 10:09 pm on Nov. 18, 2006)
Can’t see anything to indicate Another Rum will improve his record tomorrow, Alan – the going is likely to be just that bit soft for him, the trip a touch sharp, and there’s been nothing in his runs since the Scottish National 18 months ago to indicate the assessor hasn’t got him by the proverbial scrott-box.
Dun Doire‘s Cheltenham win was deemed worthy of the sort of mark off which he now finds himself running according to the Post, but whilst his onepaced staying-on seventh in the Irish National indicates he’d last trips beyond 3m, it also reminded us that he’s a bit more vulnerable when the ground dries up. He needs a sprinkle of rain as much as Another Rum needs it to stay away.
Clan Royal is getting a bit old to start defying career-high marks, and his hurdles reappearance wasn’t all that encouraging, for all that that is much his weaker suit.
Tanterari has looked heaps better for the application of a tongue-tie this autumn and will certainly be accorded the cover he prefers in this big field. There’s been mixed signals regarding the form of his win at Wincanton last month, as the fourth Run For Paddy gave a far better account in the Servo Chase at Cheltenham since then than the second Tribal Venture, and he can still give the odd fence a bit of a nudge.
Le Duc has chewed turf on his last two chase starts, including at the first Canal Turn in the National, but he has made the frame in his two other runs over the big fences, and runs off the same mark as when second in this last season – the problem with that renewal was that there was a slew of casualties early on, and only one of the first six in the betting got home.
Dunbrody Millar is 3lb lower than when a staying-on fourth in the Topham last Spring, and if the view is taken his 32l third to Bob Bob Bobbin at Bangor (3m, soft) on his first proper start of the autumn last time heralded some return to form, he may represent a little value. Ditto King Bee if his run in the same race has blown away the cobwebs after eight months away, but he has to find a greater deal of improvement on the evidence of a 68l reversal at Bangor.
Eurotrek can land the spoils fresh, will see out the trip and usually jumps well, but how many more injury comebacks can a horse come back from as good as ever before rising eleven? Any further drying of the ground would not suit.
There hasn’t been too much wrong with Nil Desperandum‘s form in defeat during 2006, and his decent third at Wincanton recently indicates he’s in basically the same touch for Venetia Williams as he was latterly for Frances Crowley, but the fact remains he is still winless in handicap chase company.
Native Jack needs to be given interesting challenges nowadays and his two wins this year have consequently been recorded in cross-country races. He too, however, would be one for whom the ground should ideally get no faster than good to soft.
Jeremy<br>(graysonscolumn)<br>
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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<br>Maybe tomorrow we’ll see why AP isn’t riding Brave Inca?:)
<br>Yeats,
Thanks, I’d forgotten Sudden Shock – was there ever a better named horse given his tendency to win at 33/1.
My first view on this race was to go with Tanterari as the in-form, lightly weighted horse with a good previous run over these fences that fits the profile for a staying race over these fences. One negative with him though – he’s hold up horse and prominent runners generally do much better over the National fences.
I don’t think there’s enough edge in the price to allow for that given the risk of being hampered or brought down in such a big field. So it’s a no bet race for me.
AP
I dont even want to think about this race :angry:
My mouse hovered over eurotrek on betfair (40’s !!!) for a good while but I was struck down by that the "weak in market" theory
Nightmare. A horse thats clearly got bags of talent and had always looked to me,like he could a grade above thios sort of race<br>:angry:
I’m sure you know this Clivex but the last time the horse won it was weak in the market too. It had been pricewised at 6/1 in the morning, opened up 9/2 but drifted out to either 6/1 or 13/2 before bolting up (I only remember becasue I tipped it up). Can’t blame you for not wanting to back a horse on the drift but as you say it is a classy animal that just can’t take much racing. Get your antepost vouchers now for the grand National @ 25/1 with bet365! (Actually i said that last year too and didn’t even get a run for my money:( )
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 8:15 pm on Nov. 19, 2006[br]<br>Get your antepost vouchers now for the grand National @ 25/1 with bet365! (Actually i said that last year too and didn’t even get a run for my money:( )<br>
<br>Brave to think you will this time either, given the horse is as brittle as Dresden china. Fair performance, but as per last year’s renewal the departure of a few more vaunted rivals early on means the form isn’t as bombproof as some would like.
Of those departures; I didn’t really clock the nature of Clan Royal’s fall, and any horse is allowed one exit from a race before the naysayers can rightly move in, but given that his campaigns are ultimately arranged around races over the National fences nowadays, is there much point keeping him in training if fallibilities in his jumping over them are starting to appear? Ditto Forest Gunner. It’s not like either of them have done a tap over park courses for quite some time now, excepting CR’s win in a thinly-contested Market Rasen hurdle on bottomless ground last winter.
Jeremy<br>(graysonscolumn)<br>
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
There weren’t exactly many horses in the race who could be described as improvers were there?
The race was advertised as being run over 3m2f (a furlong shorter than previous years as for some reasons Valentines Brook is deemed too dangerous to be the first fence), but given that the inside half of the track was dolled off how far would they have actually run?
In fact, why was half the track dolled off in the first place? It’s not as if they needed to save the ground, they haven’t got another meeting for five months!
(Edited by Happy Jack at 8:59 pm on Nov. 19, 2006)
At a guess to save them having to fork out for that much extra spruce and birch, HJ – you’re absolutely right about the ground not needing saving! They’ve pegged out the inside for a few years at this meeting now, incidentally.
gc<br>
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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