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Escaria ten is surely just here to have a sighter for the big one
Hoping that Chris’s dream is in to win
He goes superbly well fresh and was running a belter in the national before unseating
Another ante post down the drain
Still got Snow Leopardess at least and I’m very keen.I’m having another look at my National fancies engaged here and I can’t foresee DeBromhead sending Chris’s Dream here to add more pounds to his back come April for all this is a great prize in its own right. I think Lord Du Mesnil is weighted to his best and while I can’t rule out a big run I’m just not sure a win here is doable on this mark.
Achille could be a threat here with the stable in fine fettle. Did very little wrong all last season and is in need of a few pounds to get in the National, assuming that is the plan. Something about all involved tells me that it is
I can’t see why they’d even send Chris’ dream over if they weren’t trying to win
Hes already got experience of the fences and his first run is often his best run so would be odd to waste that not trying
But maybe I’m wrong
Hoping Snow Falcon turns up has run in just about every race there is and convinced there is a big one in him still.
9/12 aged 9 or above
5/12 top 3 betting
9/12 ran within 54 days
10/12 run at aintree
11/12 won over 3 miles or above
11/12 min 13 chase starts
12/12 min 2 chase wins
7/12 won won grade 1-3 race
9/12 already had a run current season
2/12 carried more than 10-1217 of the remaining 26 in the handicap on merit.
No idea if the top weight is an intended runner,without CD things will look a little different.
Only Vic Venturi (2009) and Blaklion (2017) have carried more than 10-12 to victory.
IF the forecast is correct,plenty of agua about saturday,another factor to ponder.
Just over £84 grand to the winner,the welsh national is £85 grand,no surprise we have some really nice horses entered.
Sitting on my hands until final decs,always an informative race this early in the season.After plenty of further deliberation I’ve had a stake on Vieux Lion Rouge e/w at 14/1. I backed him last year and one thing I will say is that during the race I can clearly remember thinking it was falling into his hands as all of his main rivals made mistakes or fell. That won’t happen again and if he is to win it it’s highly unlikely he’ll win by such a margin. Despite that he was fairly impressive. To try weigh up the form you could look at Kimberlite Candy who managed to repeat second place – though he was up 16lbs. He was a long way behind Vieux and probably had improved so it’s difficult to read.
Tom Scudamore opted not to ride Vieux last year so it was no great plot but the horse loves these fences and that’s half the battle.
The ground has softened up and any more rain will be welcome. He’ll likely be held up in the early stages so he’ll need a bit of luck to avoid mishaps.Of the others I’d love to have the confidence to have a bet on Le Breuil (20/1) who has dropped down the weights but I think his head is more of an issue than any handicap mark. If I knew he’d give 100% he’d be my main pick – and a stronger choice than Vieux at that. He jumps these fences superbly and is one of the few who can gain ground over them but they always seem to have excuses and I just can’t trust him. He has the ability and the mark to win this but maybe not the head.
Venetia is in fine form and it would be no shock if hers run well – Achille and not forgetting Didero Vallis. Didero Vallis has been around the Grand Sefton course twice and should prefer this distance. He’s a bit difficult to make sense of (and to predict) but it would be no shock to me if he’s up there at a very good price.
Of the others who don’t have course form Snow Falcon has been doing nothing wrong lately and will pop up somewhere at some stage. He tends to jump very deliberately and safely at times which in theory should work here but I’ve been stung thinking that before. If he takes to them he could go very well.
As tempting as they are I think it’s best to keep it simple with Vieux Lion Rouge e/w at a fair price.
And as for Blaklion – I just hope I fancy another horse as much as I did him before the end of the season. Still absolutely gutted he was pulled. He won well at Haydock today but I’d have loved to see him here and I have absolutely no doubt that he could have won.
Achille at 25-1 for me. He’s not without his risks though, as he has another entry this weekend. I have bet him though.
I will also back Lord Du Mesnil, but I will wait to see if he is declared.
Jonjo O’Neil Jr booked by Henry on chris dream
I’m starting to expect a big run
More rain the better, I see they are currently soft gd to soft in places
I had convinced myself Chris’s Dream was running here for a sighter, but now I can’t make my mind up! I’ll see if Achille or Lord Du Mesnil get declared before committing to anything, but it’s between the three of them who joins Snow Leopardess. I’m trying to resist having more than two… we’ll see.
Four of my five National shortlist trapping here, so lots of conflicting emotions! It’s a cracking lineup though, one of the best in recent years. I’m sticking with two in Snow Leopardess and the dart finally landed on Achille 22/1 six places. I must resist having a third when walking along the rails in the build up! Can’t wait!
Chris dream has top weight but it’s for a reason , we know he likes the fences and he,s got a bit of class , can see him running a monster with Jonjo on his back , e.w Thomson is bring hill sixteen a long way , still to be convinced he stay GN distance so with a run under his belt ( yards horses always come on a bundle from the first ) he may be e.w value
My top figures are:
173 Didero Vallis
171 Domaine De L’Isle
171 Achille
167 Via Dolorosa
162 Mac Tottie
162 Hill SixteenA bit speculative but happy to go top three against the field. Achille went close in two decent long distance chases last season, stable is in form and going suits.
My top two ratedhave two gears, full speed or stop, and it’s a bit of a guess as to what they will produce. Well weighted if this is the going day.
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