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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/32/aintree/2021-12-04/795939
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/becher-chase/winner
Escaria Ten is my main hope for The National, and I’ve had a fair go on him, so bit of a quandary here. Don’t want him going up too much for a win here, and I think he’d have a great chance. Equally, I prefer my National horses to not have ran over the course before, so not ideal. I’ll sit him out, as should he win, he’d pay his way anyway by laying off. Really like this horse, and be amazed if he hadn’t bagged a big one this year.
Unlike The National, for The Becher, I really want a horse who’s been round there. Safe to say Vieux Lion Rouge fits that bill. Still kicking myself for last year, when he was a mad price, but I’ll keep him inside this year, and I’m on verge of taking that early 20’s. Some price that, only a few pounds higher than last year.
Also fitting the bill is Blaklion. Nice prep yesterday at Bangor, excellent run in this year’s National, probably well treated, and just loads to like. Probably my main hope right now.
Hogans Height also appeals, and he strikes me as the type to bounce back here, after his disappointing run in The Grand Sefton.
One horse who didn’t shine here, in last year’s Grand Sefton was Dingo Dollar. He didn’t jump that badly, more a case of him being completely out of sorts. The switch to Sandy Thomson has worked wonders though, and he’s off the back of a very decent seasonal debut. Big player if he comes here off 149.
No bet yet. I’d be surprised if Escaria Ten doesn’t end up the best of these, but no point in mr backing him, and though he makes the early shortlist, I’ve no intention of backing him.
Early Shortlist
Blaklion 20’s
Dingo Dollar 16’s
Escaria Ten 10’s
Vieux Lion Rouge 20’sHogans Height is the one for me just now. I think that 33-1 is a smashing price + I’ve bet him ew
Fabulous set of entries. My main selections are Snow Leopardess and Blaklion. The former is my main National hope who needs another few pounds to get in and the latter looks ridiculously well treated.
Achille, Chris’s Dream and Lord Du Mesnil are also on my National shortlist, however its just a case of wanting them to run well without winning. Achille could do with a slight rise, but will probably achieve that with another season of pace efforts, hopefully.
Buckers, pleased you had the winner of Troytown day, after jinxing you with Smoking Gun.
Unfortunately jinxing you again, and I’ve bet Hogans Height. Missed the 33’s, but took 27’s tonight. Kept going back to him. Watched Grand Sefton again, and I’m happy to be with him. He has perfect profile for this for me.
It’s another one who didn’t quite make the early shortlist that I’m also eyeing up, Hill Sixteen. Not on the same league as Dingo Dollar, but just the type that Sandy Thomson can get plenty of improvement from.
As much as I like Dingo for this, I think The Rehearsal Chase is tailor made for him, and if he’s in the entries tomorrow, I’ll probably add Hill Sixteen too, as he’s currently 40’s.
Hogans Height 27’s
Mac Tottie 12-1 ew is my initial pick. Travelled sweet in the Grand Sefton, ought to be still competitive off 142 with the runner up of the race now 144, the first two pulling well clear and at least we know he handles the course. I don’t see anything from the Grand Sefton in this reversing the form. I’ll wait on ground conditions and other likely runners before a possible second pick.
Can’t be having Hogan’s Heights in this tbh. I backed him in the Grand Sefton and frankly he was disappointing. And he has never won a chase over 3 miles, the only 3 mile race he’s won was a 4 runner novice hurdle back in the day where the odds on favourite fell. The Grand Sefton distance has been his ideal distance and it was a chance for him to bounce back. The trainer said he will see how he gets on in the Grand Sefton with a view to go hunter chasing depending how it went in the Grand Sefton. I was willing to give him a chance in the Grand Sefton to relive past glories but he looks like a horse on the decline these days. And this is looking like a better race than that too.
I notice one who also always runs well in this well has last few years is entered again kimberlite candy
vf x
Decided to add Hill Sixteen as planned. Dingo, hopefully, heading to Newcastle, so that swayed me.
Hopefully this pair will make it, and I’ll go three handed on the day with Vieux Lion Rouge
Hill Sixteen 50’s
Hogans Height 27’sChris dream would be interesting to me if he comes here after not being put in the ladbroke
Goes exceptionally well fresh and was going well in the national when unseating the rider 4 out
With rain in the forecast im going to take 14/1 e/w 4 places
Joined you on Hill Sixteen, VtC.
He seems a quirky horse and can sometimes forget to jump when running towards a fence which would be a concern. However, I think first time out/run for new stable might be a good time to catch him. Being owned by the late Trevor Hemmings, you’d think he’s always had this sort of race in mind.
I’ve went with Mac Tottie again at 12-1. I think that the rise in the weights was not that harsh
Thank you Venture, he won it very well didn’t he. I’m happy that someone else likes Hogans Height as well.
I’ve still to pick out my second bet for The Porterstown Chase, but I will definitely be putting up Smoking Gum again.
I always look at these ante-post discussions and wonder what the rush is. Yes you might get a better price but looking back through these after the race usually makes for some grim reading.
That said, I’m changing my tune this time as I’ve had what I can on Blaklion (which admittedly isn’t a lot) e/w at 20s and 16s. I haven’t heard/read a thing from trainer or connections about how he is which makes me a bit uneasy but the race will suit him perfectly and I’d be shocked if this wasn’t his target for the season.
Took the 20’s for Vieux Lion Rouge while it’s still there. Don’t see any reason why he can’t be bang there again, and he surely can’t go off anywhere near that.
Hill Sixteen 50’s
Hogans Height 27’s
Vieux Lion Rouge 20’sAll that wasn’t to prove a point I promise you! I am extremely disappointed that Blaklion is out (and for once grateful for the tiny amounts bookmakers allow me at early prices!).
I was gearing up for a big, big bet on him if things all sounded right during the week. Massively disappointed.
Thoughts turn to Vieux Lion Rouge. I had a tiny saver on him yesterday but I won’t be betting anything extra for now. Blakion had 3lbs on him in the National – would have had a stone on him here.
Man I’m disappointed. And slightly disappointed for the horse, the race was absolutely made for Blakion. But moving on, it’s still a race I love. Back to the books.
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