Basic Van der Wheil

[Formath]

Priced with a theoretical overround of 112%.
Stars
5 Petite Lord 5/4, tough return after 155 days off track? Nicholls/Walsh combo going well.
5 Beat The Boys 3/1, flopped here LTO a month ago but has courage. Twiston-Davies/Brennan combo have been going well. WON 3/1
4 Joe Lively 13/8, C&D and the form horse but may be tired? 2nd 7/4

[Formath]

This is a G Hall ‘key’ type race IMO . The basic methodology has eleiminated Dear Villez the Nicholls/Thomas combo – does that appear wise?
The star contenders are priced up to a theoretical overround of 120%:
Stars
5 Endless Power 5/2, C&D good win LTO, weight? (3rd 11/2)
4 Lysander 85/40, may be capable of better (UR 5/1)
3 Three Mirrors 6/1, C&D goes well at this time of the year, weight? (Won 6/1)
3 Edmo Yewkay 8/1, trip suits (4th 22/1)

[Formath]

This is a G Hall ‘key’ type race IMO. Not having time to collate the information to value the race I have taken the D. Mail Formcast ratings as a reasonable indicator and priced them up accordingly with a theoretical overround of 147%:
Stars
5 Miko De Beuchene 8/1, improver and likely contender
4 Opera Mundi 17/2, in hcap proper with potential at the weight, D? Nicholls/Walsh combo going well.
3 Halcon Genelardais 17/2, merits respect, weight? King/Thornton combo going well.
3 Patsy Hall 9/1, stamina to prove, D?
3 Old Benny 10/1, in with a chance with the weight at the D

[Formath]

Posted as my inadequate tribute to Beef Or Salmon
A G Hall ‘key’ type race in my opinion but a race where VDW might have advised ‘alarm bells should be ringing’ as the overall £class is not confirmed by the ratings compilers. I have scored the columns, rated, valued and priced up to a theoretical overround of 120%:

Headings for columns are – cloth No, £class, ability, RPR, Formcast

1__X__0__X__X Beef Or Salmon 6/1, C&D could place
2__X__0__0__0 Hi Cloy 28/1
3__X__X__0__0 Kicking King 7/2
4__0__X__0__0 Mister Top Notch 13/1
5__0__X__X__X Mossbank 13/8, improver, progressive. (3rd 7/2)
6__0__X__X__X Neptune Collonges 15/8, C&D could easily be the one again. (Won 9/10F)
7__0__0__0__0 New Alco ?
8__0__0__0__0 Sher Beau ?
9__0__0__0__0 Snowy Morning ? (2nd 12/1)

You may perceive that I am a VDW cult disciple but it’s not the case I moved on years ago and only post stuff like the above because there is still so much interest in it In fact I make my own assessments based on many years of bitter experience. This is how I see the race employing my short-cut method of adjusting the basic Patternform site columns plus course, distance and the probable market. I am only ever guided by my own calculated odds:

1 10/1
2 22/1
3 11/2 – Kicking King
4 14/1
5 7/2 – Mossbank
6 Evens – Neptune Collonges
7 40/1
8 ?
9 10/1

[Formath]

This could not be regarded as a G Hall ‘key’ race IMO. Columns scored, rated, valued and priced up to a theoretical overround of 115%:

Column headings are – cloth no, £class, ability, RPR, Formcast

2__X__0__X__0 Ebazyan 14/1 (3rd 16/1)
3__X__X__X__X Harchibald 11/4, CD could be thereabouts
4__0__X__X__0 Kalderon 14/1
5__0__X__X__X Punjabi 11/4, CD ought to be thereabouts (Won 2/1)
6__0__X__0__0 Salford City 28/1
7__X__X__X__X Sublimity 6/5, strong scores indicate should be hard to beat (2nd 15/8F)

In comparison if I adjust the basic Patternform site columns plus course, distance and probable SP it come out like this:

2 40/1
3 7/2 Harchibald
4 13/1
5 5/4 Punjabi
6 7/1
7 11/4 Sublimity

[dave jay]

Excellent Formath, one of the most intriguing posters ever on any forum, love it !!

[Formath]

Dave, that was a most generous comment, when I didn’t believe anyone took much notice of my posts

To Sandown anyway, a galloping track where staying ability is required so getting the D could be the key today. Mentioning keys, this is a G Hall type ‘key’ race IMO. To save time I have priced it up via Daily Mail Formcast ratings to a theoretical overround of 137%:
Stars* (maximum of 4*)
1 12/1
2 2* 9/1
3 1* 10/1 (3rd 9/1)
4 3* 9/1 Monkerhostin, the old-stager could have an each-way chance. Hobbs/Johnson combo going well. (Won 25/1)
5 1* 10/1 Ungaro, may get the D for a place
6 10/1
7 10/1
8 3* 9/1 D’Argent, another old-satger with a chance. King/Thornton combo goin well.
9 10/1
10 10/1 Royal Auclair, may not be good enough at this stage of his career. (2nd 14/1)
11 13/1
12 15/1
13 16/1
14 22/1
15 1* 33/1
16 28/1
17 25/1
18 200/1
19 4* 17/2 Iris De Balme, big chance at the weight if this contest is not too soon? (4th 9/2)

I filtered them through the Patternform site factors too in comparison and this is my personal order of merit for what it is worth:
Rating
11 Iris De Balme
10 Royal Auclair
9 D’Argent
9 Ungaro
7 Monkerhostin

[Formath]

Assessed in a similar manner to VDW’s evaluation of the 1982 race (SCHB 4780). That is by consistency of the first 5 in the betting forecast, £class, Topspeed, Topspeed best ever, RPR:
Stars
6 New Approach, sets the standard, D? (2nd 11/8)
6 Ibn Khaldoun, improver and major contender
5 Raven’s Pass, may be better on faster
2 Henrythenavigator, D? (Won 11/2)
2 Perfect Stride, D?
1 Scintillo

Edited at 12.30 Sat:

I thought it looked a bit stark without prices so I processed the field by adjusting the 4 basic Patterform columns plus course, distance, probable market and trainer:

Newmarket is straight for 10f with slight undulations and is a fair test that suits big long-striders. A class 1 over 8f on going given as Good. RP indicate it is arestricted race winner to come from Nos 8, 11, 6, 5, 9, 3. My ratings priced up to a theoretical overround of 137%:

1 Alfathaa 18/1, D?
2 Bahamian Kid ? G?
3 Dream Eater 15/2
4 Fireside 35/1
5 Henrthenavigator 18/1, D?
6 Ibn Khaldun 3/1, improver and a major contender
7 Moynahan ? D?
8 New Approach 2/1, sets the standard, a battler just has to prove at the D?
9 Perfect Stride 15/2, D? Stoute/Moore combo going weel
10 Plan ? D?
11 Raven’s Pass 11/8, top class contender with ground drying but can he battle? Gosden/Fortune combo going well.
12 Scintillo 4/1, D? Hannon/Hughes combo going well.
13 Stimulation 4/1, D?
14 Strike The Deal 15/2
15 Stubbs Art 11/1

[Formath]

A G Hall ‘key’ type race IMO.
Starred for betting f/c, consistency, ability, Topspeed, best ever Topspeed, RPR.
Stars
6 Natagoora, sets the standard just has to get the D. (Won 11/4)
4 Savethisdanceforme, may not be quite good enough.
3 Infallible
3 Saoirsie Abu (3rd 20/1)
3 Laureldean Gale
2 Muthabara
2 Spacious (2nd 11/2)
1 Kitty Mitcham
1 Lush Lashes
1 Nahoodh

Alternatively, processing the field through Patternform adjusting the basic columns plus course, distance, trainer and probable betting itcomes out as follows. My ratings priced up to a theoretical overround of 137%:

1 Francesca D’Giorgio ? D?
2 Infallible 5/2, ran well here 18 days ago over 7f, Gosden/Fortune combo going well, D?
3 Kitty Matcham 25/1, D?
4 Lady Deauville ? D?
5 Laureldean Gale 16/1, D?
6 Lush Lashes 12/1,D?
7 Max One Two Three ? D?
8 Muthabara 15/2, D?
9 Nahoodh 50/1, D?
10 Natagora 9/4, sets the standard just has to prove at the D.
11 Royal Confidence 9/1, D? (Hills/M Hills combo going well)
12 Saoirsie Abu 12/1
13 Savethisdanceforme 15/2
14 Spacious 11/2, could make a smart 3yo, 234 days off track? Fanshawe/Spencer combo going well
15

[Formath]

I have attempted to assess this with the ‘methodology’ employed by VDW in assessing the 1982 2000 Gns, which is different than the basic methodology as may be seen from the headings. For comparison I have rated them and priced them to 100% and priced the Massey ratings too:

VDW factors for evaluation were – first 5 in RP betting f/c, consistency, best ever SF, best ever SF weight-adjusted, Topspeed.

Headings beneath are: cloth no, VDW stars, my odds, Massey odds

1 = 0, 35/1, 5/1. Al Qasi, D?
2 = 0, 66/1, 17/2. Arabian Gleam, D?
3 = 1, 35/1, 40/1. Astronomer Royal, CD, O’Brien 2nd string?
4 = 4* 3/1, 28/1. Cesare, improver. 4th 7/2
5 = 5* 11/2, 4/1. Creachadoir. Contender needs fast ground. Suroor/Dettori combo going well.WON 3/1
6 = 2 9/1, ? Haradasun. O’Brien/Murtagh combo going well.
7 Medecine Path (non-runner)
8 = 2 7/1, 7/1 Pheonix Tower. CD Unbeaten, promising, needs to progress. Cecil/Durcan combo going well. 2nd 9/2
9 = 2 7/1, 5/1 Rob Roy
10 = 3* 16/1, 10/1 Tariq. Has to get the D? 3rd 9/1
11 = 2 22/1, 400/1 Barshiba
12 = 1 11/1, 12/1 Majestic Roi, CD

[Formath]

I have assessed this race and posted on Daily Lays and Plays. I’m just doing this as I have been invited on to a dedicated VDW site where they have in depth knowledge, far beyond my ken ye know So this is more or less to keep my hand in with the basic methodology in order to keep up with them. Scored, rated, valued and priced. The factors checked were: 1st 6 in RP betting forecast, £ class, consistency, RPR, Formcast: –

11/8 Percolator, positive draw, up 1lb. 1 of 6 +6L LTO, made all pushed out, unchallenged. (refused to load into stalls)
4/1 Haigh Hall, negative draw, down 2lbs. 1 of 11 +.75L LTO. Smooth headway, led, shaken up, kept on strongly.
9/2 Aspen Darlin 9/2, negative draw, same weight. 3 of 9 -1L LTO. Hampered, headway, stayed on strongly. 3rd 9/2

Others: –
13/2 White Shift
22/1 Ohiyes
40/1 Caranbola. 2nd 12/1

Knavesmire WON 40/1

[Formath]

IMO according to my interpretation of the VDW correspondence there are no races that fully meet the requirements of a G Hall ‘key’ race. The nearest are Hay 2.10 and Gdw 3.35. I have assessed the Gdw 3.35 as per VDW’s illustration of the 1980 2,000 Gns.

Headings fro columns: Cloth No, consistency, £ class, best ever Topspeed, best ever weight-adjusted, Topspeed (I have included RPR & Formcast ratings to balance the platform):

1_X_0_X_X_0_0_X_X Ordnance, looks capable of a bold sbow
2_X_0_X_X_X_X_0_0 Babodana, not won since 2004 but has ability to show. 3rd 9/1
3_X_X_0_0_0_X_X_0
4_0_0_X_X_X_0_0_X
5_X_0_0_0_0_X_X_0
6_X_X_0_0_0_X_X_X La Rayb, C.D since being gelded may be more to come
7_0_0_X_X_X_0_0_X
8_X_X_0_0_X_X_0_X Lady Gloria, filly versus males? 2nd over CD 28 days ago but more needed. 2nd 13/2
9_0_0_0_0_0_0_0_0

Overall this is a race where VDW might state ‘alarm bells should be ringing’ as the ratings don’t confirm the other factors. I did have another look at the race with what could be called the poor man’s Timeform. I adjusted the SF by weight and priced them up, noting the first 5 in the RP betting forecast:

1 87 18/1 Ordnance
2 112 11/2
3 109 6/1 Bankable. WON 7/4
4 103 15/2 Caldra
5 76 22/1
6 104 7/1 La Rayb
7 96 10/1
8 112 11/2 Lady Gloria. 2nd 13/2
9 109 6/1

All the above may not be much help but I hope it is of some interest. The only one’s I would be interested in at the odds would be Babodana (win strike-rate 5%?) and Lady Gloria (filly versus males?).

[Formath]

Very definitely a G Hall ‘key’ type race IMO
Rather more difficult to access the data for racing across the Channel, although I feel this race is OK.
Taking the first 5 in the RP betting forecast plus recent consistent runners beyond that they were starred for consistency, winning prize money, weight-adjusted speed and top 3 RPR:

Stars
4 Thewayyouare, penultimate race – held up, ridden, ran on. Top-class and a contender over the D.
4 Natagora, ant-pen race – made virtually all, ridden out. Filly versus colts? Speedy but D is a concern?
3 Democrate, headway, challenged, driven to lead, driven out. D? Improving.
2 High Rock, led 2 out, soon clear, easily. Improver and impressive April. D?
2 Prospector, pushed along, ridden, led, pushed out, D? Improver could show
2 Starlish, just beaten by Democrate. Progressive but needs more.

[Formath]

VDW elementary mechanical procedure: Starred out of 5 for prize (top 4), consistency 3 from first 5 in RP f/c, consistency from 3/5 lesst time off track and to balance the platform top 3 RPR, top 3 Formcast.

Stars
5 Casual Conquest, RP f/c 4/1, impressive in classic trials, D? (I checked Topspeed rating and best for last year and not in top 5?)
5 New Approach, RP f/c 5/1, top on £class and speed but may be vulnerable to a turn of foot? D?
5 Tartan Bearer, RP f/c 6/1, improver that may progress, D?
1 Doctor Freemantle, RP f/c 8/1, D?

In comparison I filtered the field through the PatternForm site criteria then scored, valued and priced up the result to 100%:

5/4 New Approach, 10/3 Tartan Bearer, 9/2 Doctor Freemantle, 16/1 Rio de la Plata, 16/1 Tajaweed, 33/1 Casual Conquest (Whoah ???)

Adrian Massey with his time-based criteria goes: New Approach, Tajaweed, Doctror, Freemantle, Rio de la Plata

[Formath]

This race is a G Hall ‘key’ type race IMO, but may be difficult as it is for fillies and they can be capricious.

Starred for wins/prize, consistency confirmed by RPR, Formcast.
Stars
4 Flying Clarets, C.D needs more today

For comparison I filtered the field through the PatternForm site columns, rated them, valued them and priced them to 100%:

1 Impetious 33/1
2 Bahia Breeze – non-runner
3 Chantilly Tiffany 10/1
4 Flying Clarets 7/2
5 Folly Lodge 60/1
6 Fondled 9/2
7 Goodbye 7/1
8 Kasumi 10/1
9 Musical Beat – non-runner
10 Passion Fruit ?
11 Steam Cusisine 8/1
12 Treat 11/2

[Author]

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