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Rather frivolous post this as there is no likliehood of a bet at the odds.
Chepstow 3.00 Feb 1
Stars
5 Royals Darling, beat presenting Copper by 8 lengths LTO (my odds 10/11)
5 Presenting Copper, has some chance at the weights (6/4)
5 Admiral Peary, should pose no threat today (11/2)
3 Compton Star, will surely struggle on chasing debut? (25/1)Looked for a nice easy top-class non-hcap today to try and pull back some losses, but the odds! Talk about ‘never give a sucker and even break’:
Doncaster 3.00 Feb 2
Stars
5 Howle Hill, progressive and should be a player, blinkered (my odds 11/4)
6/1 won 13pts stake +78,due 8, bank 129[/color:1q26cty0]
5 St Saire, solid effort at Chel LTO (4/1)
4 Andreas, goes well fresh, 296 days off track? (13/2)
4 Hasty Prince, capable but not won fencing since 2004? (13/2)
3 Pablo Du Charmil, may find a couple too good (8/1)
2 Bambi De L’Orme, bit to find (8/1)
2 Calatagan, needs to improve (8/1)
2 Oneway,has plenty to prove (8/1)
2 Helen Wood, big step up in grade (14/1)
2 Lennon, useful chaser has disappointed (40/1)
0 Rapide Plaisir, limitations and plenty to proveLooks as though this one will go off too short to be a system selection.
Musselburgh 2.30 Feb 3
Stars
6 Harper Valley, the one to beat (my odds 21/20)
Lost 11/8 no bet as it did not make the 6/4 threshold[/color:13tk7dis]
4 Smugglers Bay, has not impressed yet (7/2)
4 Los Nadis, CD good run expected (5/1)
3 Tamimi’s History, has it to prove hurdling (5/1)
3 Act Sirius, open to improvement (18/1) WON 16/1[/color:13tk7dis]
1 Pertemps Networks, CD progressive has to find more today (11/1)
1 Sonara, iffy jumper (35/1)
0 Grand Art, beaten twice by Los NadisOn another website I frequent somebody remarked that I appeared to know my onions with regard to VDW but didn’t understand my approach. The fact is I just employ the basic methodology to ‘narrow the field’ by making a ‘platform’ to check the data. In the final event where I diverge is that I have to calculate a price to trade at as I can’t be operating in a market blind or I am open to be taken to the cleaners.
Take the best class race on offer today Lingfield 3.35. Factors starred are the first 6 in the RP betting forecast, top 3 prize money/wins, top 3 consistency, top 3 RPR, top 3 D Mail Formcast. To qualify for consideration runners must be starred for the first 3 factors and be confirmed by being starred by both ratings compilers:
1 17/2_X_X_0_X_X
2 4/1__X_X_X_X_X Zorro, won 1 of 10 by 12L at Nby over 21f LTO. Headway led driven clear readily. Promising and more to give if handling the G. 7lb penalty but 7lb claimer up negates the increase.3 18/1_0_0_0_X_X
4 25/1_X_X_X_0_X
5 6/1__0_0_0_X_0
6 13/2_X_0_X_0_0
7 15/2_X_X_0_X_X
8 500/1_0_0_0_0_0
9 11/2 _X_0_0_0_0
10 18/1 _0_0_0_0_0Opinion. The fair odds shown (no advantage) were calculated from the Massey ratings for the race as I only alloted stars in this case. The only qualifier is Zorro and it appears there will be no advantage at the odds available, so another assessment to no avail except for the practise
This is a G Hall ‘key’ race IMO and a difficult one too boot.
1*
2*
3*
4**
5***Cailin Alainn, proven stayer if not too soft
6*
7**
8**
9*
10****Preists Leap, on a reasonable handicap mark
11*
12*
13
14**
15 Non-runner
16***Ballycullen Boy, progressive novice for the shortlist
17**
18 Non-runner
19
20
21 (Hear The Echo – Won 33/1)
22*
23
24
25 Non-runner
26This is definitely a G Hall key type race in my opinion and has such has to be worth assessing.
Stars
5 Back On Line, 3 of 20 -11.5L LTO mistake progress to lead headed outpaced. May be more to come today
4 Classic Fiddle, 1 of 9 +2L pen race, chased ridden driven out. Needs to bounce back, D?
3 Scarvagh Diamond, 2 of 10 -.25L LTO, chased led kept on headed. Progressive and worth considering.
3 Souri Des Champs, 1 of 5 led rallied forged clear. Needs to progress again, D?
3 Theatre Diva, 1 of 6 +2.25L LTO, headway led kept on well. Stamina is a slight concern?
3 Truckers Lady, 2 of 5 -1.25L pen race, led hit 13 kept on held. Needs to find something to be a player
2 Miss Mitch
1 La Grande Villez
1 StrawberryDavid,
In answer to your query, this is a copy of a letter by a G Hall published in the Sports Forum of the defunct Sporting Chronicle Handicap book that did a great deal to generate much of the interest in the early letters relating to the ‘methodology’.
This is a letter published in Sports Forum Jan 11, 1979 from a Mr G Hall: –
"Towards the end of the last NH season reader C Van Der Wheil gave us his system. I burnt considerable midnight oil checking through the past results and concluded that there was something to get my teeth into.
My first bet was the Lincoln winner, but then things started to go wrong. Fortunately, VDW elaborated following comments by Methodmaker and after burning more midnight oil, I spotted the ‘KEY’, which was plainly there to see. I followed the system throughout the rest of the season and finished the period with a tidy bank, even after taking out the cost of a family holiday to Malta.
A system that can give the spring and autumn double, with a constant stream of winners in-between, can’t be any fluke and I look forward to the next Flat season. My best day produces a nice yankee, with Buckskin 2/1, Swiss maid 5/1, My Therape 5/1 and the Cambridgeshire winner Baronet 12/1.
In tending my thanks and appreciation to VDW, can I persuade him to further elaborate upon his system for use over the sticks? The ‘KEY’ does not seem to produce as many bets. Also, I would appreciate enlightenment regarding procedures when finishing places include F fell, R refused, P pulled up, U unseated rider etc."If you are aware of the above, and your inquiry was about how to identify a G Hall key race that is just my opinion, which I prefer not to divulge
Another G Hall key type race IMO. Just the basic methodology to ‘narrow the field’ with a look a the form of the star contenders, nothing clever:
Stars
5 Celestial Halo, Won 1 of 14 +2.25L LTO, led hard driven stayed on gamely. Beat Franchoek and a strong contender. (2nd 7/4)
5 Binocular, 2 of 22 -2L LTO, challenged slight lead headed kept on well. ran well in a fast race at Chel and a likely contender. (Won 11/8F)
4 Star Of Angels, 5 of 14 -11L LTO, headway hard ridden kept on never in contention. 5th behind Celestial Halo and looks to have work cut out here?
2 Harper Valley (3rd 7/1)
2 First Buddy
1 Pagan Starprincess
1 ChordHi Formath
Do you think J P McManus is running Binocular because he thinks that Celestial Needs a stiffer test.
Racing Post Quote Said that CH got aflat footed at Doncaster and needs a fast pace which was why he wanted the Triumph Hurdle.
Good Luck
Monster
Monster,
I really have no idea, except the way the race panned out it seemed to me they were very well aware that Binoculars close up 2nd in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, in a time faster than the Champion Hurdle, over this 2 miles on a flat hurdling course would stand them in good stead.
Hi Formath
APM is exceptional at judging pace in NH races and of course today was able to stalk off the pace as expected. VDW Deja Vu, when he said that Kempton was not the track for Forgive ‘N’ Forget.
Good Luck
Monster
Stars
5 Albertas Run, Won 1 of 11 +4.5L LTO. stayed on led soon clear comfortably. Won 10/13 starts and a strong contender. (3rd 6/4F)
4 Big Buck’s, 7 of 20 -5.75L LTO, hampered headway plugged on. Hoping for improvement with a better run, G? D? (Won 11/4)
4 Roll Along, 2 of 11 -4.5L LTO, stayed on ran on no chance with Albertas Run. Playing for a place.
3 Battlecry (2nd 11/2)
3 Starzaan, G?
1 Joe Lively
0 Cedric LibaniA severe test all round, VDW methodology included
Stars
4 Cloudy Lane, best chance if jumping and staying, D?
3 Comply Or Die, impressive jumper and a contender (Won 7/1)
3 Butlers Cabin, improver but recent form a concern?
2 Simon, makes jumping mistakes? D?
2 Snowy Morning, was initial Fav but will need to jump better, D? (3rd 16/1)
2 Knowhere, can make jumping mistakes? D?
1 Slim Pickings, 3rd last year so not out of it (4th 10/1)
1 Bewleys Berry, can jump round Aintree, D?
1 Mr Pointment, flopped 5 weeks ago? D?
1 Turko, improver on a reasonable mark, D?
1 No Full, on a tough mark today? D?Much to early for VDW on the Flat but here is a G Hall key type race IMO. (I took adjusted Topspeed as my 2nd ratings to confirm the platform along with RPR):
Castlemartin Gladness Stakes 4.15 Curragh
Stars
5 Honoured Guest, is this the O’Brien 2nd string?
4 US Ranger, can handle heavy going
3 Jumbajukiba, improver with a stiff task today
3 Major Cadeuax, looks the best of the Brit challenge
1 Captain Marvelous
1 Crooked Throw
0 Excelerate
0 Leading Grace
0 Grecian DancerI have said I don’t touch the Flat turf until after the Guineas meeting, but here’s one
Why? Well on another site it was said that anyone and everyone has no problems with ‘narrowing the field’, it is just the final selection that can be difficult – I’m not so sure. For this 3yo hcap I took time as the class factor instead of prize money as part of the basic methodology. In line with my opinion that nobody should be trading in the market without some idea of prices I scored the factors, rated them, valued and priced them, including a theoretical overround of 127%:Stars
5 Jaser 6/4, C&D and an obvious contender, Chapple-Hyam/Munro combo are going well. (Won 6/4)
4 Sky Diver 85/40, AW winner that has scope, 210 days off track, G?D?
4 Crosstar 4/1, improver on AW surfaces, G?
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