Basic Van der Wheil

[Formath]

Thanks for the comments and no I don’t believe several consecutive winners indicates anything other than the way any pattern of results occurs randomly.

Late again due to being on the DIY trail as required by my domestic goddess, it just saves a lot of hassle. This means I have to go for this hcap chase, which is not a bad race but not quite up to the star standard of yesterday.

Kempton 2.55 Nov 27
Stars
4 John Diamond (15/8 my odds), the going is of some concern
3 Ola Du Sulon (100/30), French invader and has claims
4 Pretty Star (9/2), has not improved as a chaser
2 Keepthedreamalive (15/2)
2 Black Hills (10/1)
2 Harry’s Dream (10/1)
2 Randwick Roar (16/1)
2 Pole Star (16/1)
1 Jericho (33/1)
0 Mort De Rire

[maggsy]

Pitty you missed the earlier race thats all I’m saying. Don’t want to be accused of aftertiming.Pittsburgh Phil used to say never let women distract you.

[Formath]

Maggsy,

I didn’t miss the Class 1 Kempton 1.10 which wasn’t a key race but had good class runners, just didn’t have time to post it. For interest it came out like this.

Stars
5 Gasparo (11/10 my odds), going suits
5 Refinement (2/1), has to be respected
3 Kruguyrova (4/1), market may give some indication
3 Bold Fire (9/1), has claims
1 Sharbasia (28/1)
0 Silver Charmer
0 Cream Cracker

[Formath]

This is not strictly basic VDW but more to do with pricing up according my opinion. The basic stars attained are priced up and that relates to past performance but a second price has been calculated ‘subject to other considerations’ that is the probablity of meeting today’s race requirements against the opposition. Not a key race but decent enough.

Newbury 2.35 Nov 30
Stars
5 Hobbs Hill, 85/40 on past performance, useful. 6/4 by probability
4 Papini, 9/2, fell LTO but a progressive hurdler last season, 20/1
3 Silverburn, 11/4, brother to Denham last year’s winner, 4/1
3 Battlecry, 9/2, others preferred, 11/2
3 Lead On, 11/2
2 Air Force One, 10/1
1 Nation State 20/1

I’m not sure the second price adss anything but confusion but it will be interesting to see the result.

On another matter referring to a current thread on TRF ‘I find the harder I work the luckier I get!’

[maggsy]

Well done again Formath. At what point will you think you’ve cracked it?

[Formath]

maggsy,

Being a septuagenarian time is not on my side looking at it realistically , though I suppose if I get to the end of the season and well ahead that will be more than satisfactory .

Joking apart, I am still working on my approach endeavouring to improve it
even though I seem to have been down most avenues and blind alleys now. Things can be going well, as at present, and all at once it falls apart at the seams. Usually, it must be said, some factor that should have been considered such as sudden, extreme changes in the going.

[Artemis]

Well done, Formath.

Your threads are interesting and you are prepared to put your head on the block. Your enthusiasm belies your tender years.

[Formath]

3 key races at Newbury this afternoon IMO and this is the first of them, the others being the 3.15 & 3.45. I was going to make a big case out for the Hennessy but the stars are too thinly spread to be confident, so just a precis.

Newbury 2.40 Dec 1
Stars
4 Denham 7/2 my odds, beaten only once, 262 days off track? 156 my rating
4 Abragante 7/2, improver,quirky but well hcapped. 150 my rating
4 Snowy Mountain 9/2, improver and well hcapped but will have to be fit, 221 days off track?
3 Sir Rembrandt 5/1, not to be discounted on past form. 166 my rating

[maggsy]

Well done agian Formath this is becoming a habit. I f you keep this up people might actually start thinking theres something to this so called old VDW rubbish.

[goodlife]

Formath, your work is excellent and you are an inspiration to the rest of us.
I was busy for most of yesterday but Denman was undoubtedly the class horse in the field.Once again, well done.

[Formath]

Many thanks for the kind plaudits but it’s only been a purple patch for a week or so, perhaps I should call it a day at this stage

This race is not a key race but looks interesting enough. I may have been wasting my time with it as Nevada Royale is the selection as per the VDW system advised to Hall, anyway we shall see.

Newbury 2.05 Dec 2
Stars
6 Joe Lively 4/11 my odds, progressive but soft going is a concern
6 Here’s Johnny 5/2, jumped fences well and battles
5 Minella Tippereary 16/1, progressive hurdler that could improve
2 Nevada Royale 16/1, French import, talking horse said to be regarded as likely to give a good account. Nicholls/Thomas combo

[Formath]

Today’s Monday racing looks like the usual weekly testimonial day for the Book . So this race is more to keep the pot boiling rather than a serious betting proposition, but you can make up your own mind.

The basic stars attained are priced up and that relates to past performance but a second price has been calculated ‘subject to other considerations’ that is the probablity of meeting today’s race requirements against the opposition.

Fakenham 2.20 Dec 3
Stars
6 Cool Roxy, my form odds 5/4, C&D most reliable of these and the obvious selection. My probablity odds 5/2.
5 Craven, 11/4, risky doesn’t find much, 100/30
4 King Harald 9/4, Cheltenham winner being dropped in class, 25/1
4 Aston 22/1, never won in the UK best on good going, off track 180 days? 100/30
4 Art Virginia 22/1, disappointing chaser, 85/40

The disparity and contradiction in pricing says it all IMO and is Cool Roxy a bet at the available odds? Desperate gamblers might try csf Cool Roxy with Craven & King Harald

[Formath]

Leicester 2.00 Dec 6
Stars
6 L’Oiseau, my odds 6/4, threat on GF
5 Abutilon, 7/4, improver
4 Ashgreen 7/2, chance but something to prove
4 Log On Intersky, 4/1, been on downgrade lately
3 Romany Dream, 5/1
3 Dune River 16/1
2 Newick Park 35/1

[Formath]

Sandown where the hurdles course is given as generally heavy, so not ideal, for this key race today.

Sandown 1.55 Dec 7
Stars
6 Hills Of Arran 2/1 my odds, D is not ideal
5 Lightning Strike 2/1, experienced but going is a concern?
5 Mount Oscar 11/2, impressive Kempton winner LTO but stiffer task here
3 Nakai 7/2, plenty to prove here
2 Kealshore Boy 10/1
1 Talenti 33/1

[Formath]

Sandown 2.35
Stars
5 Voy Por Ustedes 5/4, the one to beat
5 Monets Graden 95/40, versatile and a player here
5 Ashley Brook 5/1, jumping has to hold up
3 Twist Magic 5/1, improver but needs more
2 Hoo La Baloo 11/1
1 Demi Beau 35/1
1 River City 35/1
0 Oneway

[Formath]

Kelso 1.50 Dec 9
Stars
6 Delray Beach 13/8, unexposed chaser may have more to offer
4 Trisons Star 11/4, unexposed improver for shortlist
3 Getingbybutonlyjust 5/1, progressive likely contender

[Formath]

I understand the messenger has been shot, which is a pity as the message itself is not bad.

Ludlow 2.30 Jan 7 (the prices are my calc and have no other merit)

20/21 Sasso, strong contender (went off 10/11 came home 4 of 5 so something of a disaster. Good job I set the stop-loss at 6/4 so no bet)[/color:3hn80lev]
3/1 Star Shot, stamina to prove but has claims
9/2 Dune Raider, not at best on S
9/2 Pseudenym, not progressing something to find
28/1 Bonchester Bridge, modest chase debut last month (5/2 Won )[/color:3hn80lev]
??? Supreme Mark, not shown anything at all

[Author]

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