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Day Three qualifiers for team LGR…..
empty wallet
Musical Gift (3.20 Southwell) 2nd (-1 point)
LookingForAWinner
Kids Inhreitance (4.10 Sedgefield) Unplaced (-1 point)
Tooting
Paris Dreamer (3.00 Wolverhampton) 2nd (-1 point)
andydawes
Dark Parade (4.20 Southwell) 1st @ 5/6 (+0.83)
Hoofhearted
Pawn In Life (1.50 Southwell) 1st @ 3/10 (+0.3)<br>Emaradia (2.30 Wolverhampton) Unplaced (-1 point)
Running totals then…..
empty wallet -1 ROI -100%<br>LookingForAWinner +4.5 ROI 150%<br>Tooting -4 ROI -100%<br>andydawes +3.33 ROI 41.6%<br>Hoofhearted +0.63 ROI 4.8%
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 6:29 pm on Feb. 7, 2005)
and from the NV barn…
Aston – nope<br>Monkey – nope (and may struggle to reach 10 selections)
Nick Hatton<br>2:40 sedgefield – CORLANDE
Grasshopper<br>4:10 sedgefield – THE MEXICAN
Sal (here we go again)<br>3:40 sedgefield – JACCOUT<br>4:40 sedgefield – JEALOUS MEAD<br>2:00 wolverhampton – WILFORD MAVERICK<br>3:00 wolverhampton – MARGOLD<br>3:30 wolverhampton – RADMORE SPIRIT<br>3:30 wolverhampton – ASH BOLD<br>4:00 wolverhampton – LILY OF THE GUILD<br>2:20 southwell – NEWTONIAN<br>2:50 southwell – DISPOL PETO<br>2:50 southwell – GARNOCK VENTURE<br>2:50 southwell – ROSE OF YORK<br>3:20 southwell – FAR NOTE
g’luck guys!
Day 3 selections …..
Barry Dennis
Sedgefield  3:10   Katie Kai         u 20/1<br>Sedgefield  3:40   Di’s Dilemma      3rd 11/4<br>Southwell  3:20   Bridgewater Boys  u 15/2<br>Southwell  4:20   Simon’s Seat      2nd 7/2
Today :  Bets = 4   Profit = -4pts<br>All :  Bets = 11   Profit = -11pts   p.o.t. = -100%
<br>Cormack15
Sedgefield  3:10   Killing Me Softly  2nd 9/2<br>Sedgefield  4:10   Flake          2nd 11/4
Today :  Bets = 2   Profit = -2<br>All :  Bets = 16   Profit = -12.5pts   p.o.t. = -78.13%
<br>Jairducochetfan
no selections
<br>LetsGetRacing
no selections
<br>Stevedvg
Sedgefield  2:40   Gunner Royal     u 4/1<br>Sedgefield  3:10   Named At Dinner  u 3/1
Today :  Bets = 2   Profit = -2pts<br>All :  Bets = 6   Profit = -4pts   p.o.t. = -66.67%
<br>
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 5:00 pm on Feb. 7, 2005)
Scores updated after day 2
Lookingforawinner sel’s 1/2 p/l +5.5pts %p/l +275% <br>Cp Gagie sel’s 1/1 p/l +2.5pts %p/l +250%<br>Dave Jay sel’s 2/2 p/l +0.86pts %p/l +43.33%<br>Andy Dawes sel’s 2/7 p/l +2.5pts %p/l +36%<br>Aston sel’s 2/7 p/l +2pts %p/l +28.57%
Cut off point for final two weeks
Hoofhearted sel’s 3/11 p/l +1.33pts %p/l +12%<br>Daylight sel’s 1/7 p/l +0.5pts %p/l +7.14%<br>Non Vintage sel’s 1/8 p/l -3pts %p/l -37.5%<br>Sal sel’s 2/19 p/l -12.5pts %p/l -40.32%<br>SteveDG sel’s 1/4 p/l -2pts %p/l -50%<br>Cormack15 sel’s 1/14 p/l -10.5pts %p/l -75%<br>Barry Dennis sel’s 0/7 p/l -7pts %p/l -100%<br>Grasshopper sel’s 0/4 p/l [b-4pts[/b] %p/l -100%<br>Letsgetracing sel’s 0/3 p/l -3pts %p/l -100%<br>Tooting sel’s 0/3 p/l -3pts %p/l -100%<br>Nick Hatton sel’s 0/2 p/l -2pts %p/l -100%<br>Ace sel’s 0/1 p/l -1pts %p/l -100%
<br>Monkey, jairducochetfan and Empty Wallet still no selections as yet. <br>
(Edited by cormack15 at 10:44 am on Feb. 7, 2005)
Today’s selections from my contestants –
Dave Jay –
Southwell 1.50 Pawn In Life LAY won 3/10 (so Dave Jay loses)
Non Vintage –
Southwell<br>1.50 Pawn In Life won 3/10<br>2.50 Feast of Romance won 9/2<br>3.20 Pawan 3rd 9/1
Wolverhampton<br>2.30 Danakim 2nd 13/2<br>4.00 Lilly Gee unp
Daylight<br>All Wolverhhampton<br>2.00 Hamburg Springer N/R<br>3.00 La Gitana Unp<br>4.30 Danger Bird Unp
CP Gagie –
No selection (this system may struggle to reach the necessary 10 selections by a week Saturday!)
Ace – tbc<br>
(Edited by cormack15 at 8:57 pm on Feb. 7, 2005)
Hi lineform, I have to agree with LGR on this one. ROI is a fair test of profitability on something like this competition.
Competitor A advises 10 bets and has 3 winners @ 4/1 -makes 5 points profit & an ROI of 50%.
Competitor B has 100 bets, lots of losers & a few winners return him 106 points – makes 6 points profit & an ROI of 6%.
‘B’ has made a point more profit BUT his ROI (p.o.t) is much worse at 6% compared to A’s 50%.
(Edited by snowman at 11:53 am on Feb. 7, 2005)
snowman re-read what i am saying that is the point it is not showing how bad the systems are doing <br>my example is showing what you have just said. anyway it is interesting as a novice to see how the forums finest will do with the systems in this comp<br>they seem to know a lot about racing so it can,t fail can it<br>interesting to see how they do if you would back every selection , i think the average punter loses about 10 %<br>and that takes in all manor of betting shop joes , they must do better than that no matter how you show your profits (or loss )<br>lineform
Jeez Nick, it looks like you drew a bunch of stiffs.
Despite the small fields in the last few days, between us we’re managing a strike rate of under 5%.
I trying to work out if it’s too late for me to claim my system is meant to be a lay system.
Steve
I started monitoring my original system (hcap hurdle bottom weights) today.
One qualifier. Jaccount. Won 12-1.
Sods law is alive and well….
Steve
Lineform,
I’m struggling to understand what exactly it is you’re getting at, but it seems as though you disagree with the ROI method of showing how successful a system, or indeed a punter, really is.
What the method does is represent profit, or loss, as a proportion of the total amount of money invested. It is an entirely accurate reflection of how well someone performs overall. It is not detailed in terms of the number of bets or the number of winners, but it is a simple, impressionable measure of profitability.
What you seem to be hinting at is looking at things in terms of an individual stake. So, if you’re regular stake is £10 and you had 7 losing bets (to 1 point stakes), your loss would infact be 700%, rather than 100%. This, for me, is the wrong way to look at things. You are in effect summarising monetary loss and this means nothing from one to person the next. We all have our levels and £70 to you, is £7000 to someone else.
On average, if taking punting seriously to any degree, you should work toward winning 10% of what you are prepared to stake per day (or whatever period of time you choose to allocate). So;
If you are prepared to bet £500 per day/week, your aim is to make £50 per day/week. Conversely, if you want to be making £200 a day/week, you need to be prepared to stake £2000.
I use this (although I will vary the percentages on occasion) method when I am more ‘practical,’ in my approach to my betting.
But getting back to the ROI method, just remember two simple rules;
i) The closer to -100%, the worse the system (or punter) is performing).
ii) The further from 0%, the better the system is performing. And if calculated over an extended period of time, anything above 10% is good.
Steve
It’s a terrible set of results for ‘my’ group so far ……. Barry’s system is yet to get off the mark, Cormack seems to have seconditis and I think you’ve been a bit unlucky so far.
There’s still a fair way to go !
Hi lineform,
I think I understand your point now – basically I think you are saying that 5 losers on the trot MUST be worse than 1 loser, but without knowing which areas of the market each system is operating in, that would not be a fair test. These fun systems in this competition may tip odds on shots or selections at 20/1+ and that will inevitably affect your expected strike rate and indeed your actual strike rate. Likewise someone looking for big priced outsiders may operate at a fiver a point, whilst a big hitter looking at short priced favs may be operating at 500 quid per point – it’s all relative.
Please be assured however that ROI is a true test of your betting’s worth over a period of time, regardless of how much you have outlayed per bet, or in total.
Sorry lineform, dont want it to sound as though we’re ganging up on you!! :biggrin:
LGR<br>" what i am getting at" strange thing to say<br>i am a novice and just asking questions thats all, i am greatfull to you and other people for replying to me i agree to what you say it is the same as i am saying the figures work out the same anyway, its just when it gos below – 100 % i could’nt grasp only because it did’nt show how many loses the system had<br>it might not be important to you but to me it is <br>i am not having a go as you suggest im just not accepting things at face value , asking questions trying things ,same as betting looking at things in a different way from other punters , otherwise you come up with the same findings<br>sorry to be different i just don’t follow the crowd <br>without question
regards
Lineform
Quote: from lineform on 7:38 pm on Feb. 7, 2005[br]i could’nt grasp only because it did’nt show how many loses the system had
lineform
Lineform,<br>Hi,
If you have a glance at Cormack’s daily score update you will notice that he does, in fact, record the losers per qualifiers for each contestant ……………. in the style of 1/6 or 0/9. This info is directly following the contestant’s name. And this is cumulatively adjusted each day.
The minus-100% thing is an overall view — a snapshot if you like — and the most accurate assessment possible of each competitors in-running profitability (or lack of!). A negative 100% is effectively "nul pointe" but there is no limit to a plus percentage ………….. LOOKINGFORAWINNER will probably be in the vicinity of 47,450% by the end of this fun exercise (judging by the way he is performing so far!!)
Regards,<br>Hoof.
Scores updated after day 3 (NV – any errors with your lot and my arithmetic let me know)
CP Gagie sel’s 1/1 p/l +2.5pts %p/l +250%<br>Lookingforawinner sel’s 1/3 p/l +4.5pts %p/l +150%<br>Andy Dawes sel’s 3/8 p/l +3.33pts %p/l +41.6%<br>Aston sel’s 2/7 p/l +2pts %p/l +28.57%<br>Hoofhearted sel’s 4/12 p/l +0.63pts %p/l +4.8%
Possible cut off point (Althoug CP Gagie may struggle to have 10 selections which would let in the next on the list)
Dave Jay sel’s 2/3 p/l -0.133pts %p/l -4.44%<br>Non Vintage sel’s 3/13 p/l -1.2pts %p/l -9.23%<br>Sal sel’s 5/31 p/l -4.5pts %p/l -10.47%[<br>b]Daylight[/b] sel’s 1/9 p/l -1.5pts %p/l -16.67%<br>Nick Hatton sel’s 1/3 p/l -0.75pts %p/l -25%<br>Steve DG sel’s 1/6 p/l -4pts %p/l -66.67%<br>Cormack15 sel’s 1/16 p/l -12.5pts %p/l -78.13%<br>Barry Dennis sel’s 0/11 p/l -11pts %p/l -100%<br>Grasshopper sel’s 0/5 p/l -5pts %p/l -100%<br>Tooting sel’s 0/4 p/l -4pts %p/l -100%<br>Letsgetracing sel’s 0/3 p/l -3pts %p/l -100%<br>Ace sel’s 0/2 p/l -2pts %p/l -100%<br>Empty Wallet sel’s 0/1 p/l -1pts %p/l -100%
Jairducochetfan – no runners yet (although I do hear that there is one running for him tomorrow!)
Monkey – No runners <br>
(Edited by cormack15 at 11:02 pm on Feb. 7, 2005)
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