- This topic has 200 replies, 27 voices, and was last updated 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
“I am not sure what relevance there is to asking whether they have both improved. The question to ask is why Slade Steel managed to find more than 7lbs improvement over Ballyburn. It couldn’t possibly have anything to do with Ballyburn running over a trip short of his best, could it”?
————————————-As a guide to the “relevance”, Stilvi:
In my collection of Chasers And hurdlers, Timeform usually rated the very top novice hurdler of the season in the 160’s. They seldom rated the very top bumper horse any higher than 125.ie Usually the top novice hurdler improves 35 lbs or more from its bumper form.
So “7 lbs” more improvement by SS than B is nothing when both Ballyburn and Slade Steel have both improved considerably since their bumper days. Certainly not the “zero improvement on his bumper form”, you believe Ballyburn has made.
Now that really is it from me.
Value Is EverythingThat’s the first time I have ever seen someone try and pretend 7lbs is nothing. It doesn’t matter how much either has improved just that Slade Steel cut the differential by more than 7lbs. Instead of just ignoring the figure perhaps you can actually explain why that might have happened?
Again you have misquoted something. That quote (which I subsequently corrected) was a reference (as you well know) to Ballyburn relative to Slade Steel in that DRF race.
Maybe you two could finish this off in the Southam village hall on Festival Tuesday?
Or the Wednesday, depending on where Ballyburn runs…
I have enjoyed the back and forth here. I’m pretty much on the fence but I can see the argument to stick to 2m with Ballyburn. He’s beaten most of the Irish novices all ends up at the DRF with the exception of his two stablemates Tullyhill and Mystical Power. Tullyhill would need to brush up on his jumping and I think he looks more of an Un Atout or Tell Us More that type could run in the first five or six but will likely be outpaced in the finish. Mystical Power is the more interesting of that pair and would be the one I’d consider to take on the favourite with but at the moment that wouldn’t be a strong opinion.
Using the bumper form with Slade Steel as a measure of Slade Steel closing the gap with Ballyburn is dangerous imo as the gap was never likely all that much; he was poorly placed in that bumper and raced four or five wide from the back straight in Punchestown all the way into the straight, whereas Ballyburn was in the box seat throughout.
I’m a big Slade Steel fan and jumping the usual two out in Leopardstown he was right on Ballyburn’s heels but he couldn’t live with the speed of Ballyburn as he quickened away from him to the bypassed final hurdle. From there on the gap didn’t get any wider as Stilvi has said. I don’t agree that Ballyburn was running out of gas at the finish due to being asked to race at too fast a pace for the race, to me he looked to be travelling comfortably throughout. He has plenty of pace and could win the Supreme in the same fashion as a Vautour or Klassical Dream. I’d say he only did as much as he was asked to in the finish and if something had been good enough to come with him he’d likely have gone on again. I would think Slade Steel has very little chance of reversing form with him over two miles but I could see why connections would be hopeful he’d at least close the gap over 2m 5f if they reopposed over that distance.
As is often the case when there is a standout novice it’s likely Ballyburn can win either race (Vautour and Faugheen would both have won if they had been swapped, Douvan would have won the Baring Bingham in his year etc).
Should Ballyburn go to the Supreme Slade Steel will be the horse to beat here and should be a backable price with the likes of Ile Atlantique in opposition.
How can you say that you are ‘pretty much on the fence’, and then from the next sentence just outline the case for him running in a Supreme? That’s a very peculiar definition of sitting on the fence.
The value of the DRF run depends on what you think of Slade Steel in relation to winning a Supreme. The second favourite ran no race, and the rest are handicap projects. I don’t think Slade Steel is anywhere near quick enough to win a Supreme. The opposition Ballyburn will face in a Supreme will be (much) better than the DRF. He needs to improve, and tactically it will be much more difficult.
It’s conjecture that Ballyburn could have picked up again, but it’s a fact that he hasn’t finished off his race in the same manner as his previous starts. It’s not as if he is being eased down, he is slowing down. To me that implies he wouldn’t have picked up again.
Don McClean has also suggested that Slade Steel could close the gap over the longer trip. Personally, I think the horse is overrated, and his defeat of Lecky Watson isn’t good enough. I think he would be hammered if the met again in a Ballymore, and connections have already said they will avoid Ballyburn, which seems to imply they don’t think he would get significantly closer.
I hadn’t watched that bumper since last year, but having watched it again, I don’t think Ballyburn is flattered by the margins at all. Yes, Slade Steel is held up, and challenges wide, but he is unable to sustain his run. On the other hand Ballyburn storms away, and is value for whatever margin you like to name. I would be far more inclined to mark him up than Slade Steel.
I’m on the sense in that I can see the argument both ways, he just looks a better horse at wither trip than the likely opposition, and is the likely winner whatever way he goes.
I don’t know if the Supreme will be much better than the race at the DRF really, you’ll have Tullyhill/Mystical Power potentially, and Jeriko Du Reponet, but not much else there.
I take a higher view of the Slade Steel form, actually have backed Lecky Watson for the Bartlett.
“but it’s a fact that he hasn’t finished off his race in the same manner as his previous starts. It’s not as if he is being eased down, he is slowing down”.
————————————————–One was a Grade 1 run off a strong early pace.
One was a maiden that wasn’t as strongly run.
So of course he finished off the race faster off a slower early pace in the (lesser quality) maiden.…And according to Simon Rowlands, Ballyburn’s sectional for the final 4 furlongs was 99.3% (almost spot on) the same average speed as the the rest of the race… And most (if not all) of that 0.7% difference could be made up had he been put under pressure in the last furlong. I suspect the pace increased on the home turn before slackening late on – once clear.
Value Is EverythingI think this discussion has run it’s course. I certainly can’t think of anything new to add. So a brief summary of my thoughts.
The first point (which was the excuse for starting him over two miles) is the perception of pulling is now widely accepted as not being a factor at all going forwards. If it wasn’t Mullins, I would strongly suspect that even if he went Supreme, we wouldn’t see him over two miles again. He has likened the horse to Faugheen, but he clearly isn’t a potential Champion Hurdle prospect.
The horse has a pegigree that shouts stayer, and he would comfortably stay three miles now. His two runs over a trip would strongly support that thought.
Which was his best performance? I would definitely go with the Christmas romp over the Grade 1. He beat a horse who has since shown himself a promising stayer by 25 lengths, looking like he go round again. Contrast that with a Grade 1 win which boiled down to a match with another stayer. Having had the perfect trip on the rail he seemed to maintain the gallop better than the runner up, then similarly to Christmas he seemed to find a little surge around the omitted last hurdle. However, this time he didn’t maintain that finish anywhere near as well, and pulled up much more quickly after the line than on his previous starts. He was ridden out to the line, and if required I doubt he would found a great deal more on the day. The margin was a fair one, and the runner up improved in a relative sense by more than 7lbs on their previous bumper clash.
Of course he might win a Supreme, but this is about which race affords him the best option of winning at the Festival. For me the Ballymore is a no-brainer. Very likely a small field with Townend able to dictate the race. The further he goes the better he goes, and his chance would be more solid even in an Albert Bartlett than a Supreme. Chances are he will have to be ridden prominently in a Supreme. He doesn’t have the pace to risk coming through traffic. We don’t even know what will happen should something shut the rail run down. I would have thought that should be the first priority for the opposition. In short it’s going to be a much harder prospect than the DRF ever looked likely to be.
I am pessimistic that the wrong decision will be made, and it will then be down to whether he can get away with it for a second time in three runs over the minimum trip. Run over the intermediate trip from the outset he would be unbeaten this year, and there would be no discussion as to where he was going. The whim of the trainer has brought this situation about. He is more concerned about the number of races he can win, rather than making sure he wins one with the season’s best novice.
I’ll play devil’s advocate and ask you the following question, stilvi.
Which of the following would suit Ballyburn more:
A Supreme run at a ferocious gallop
A Ballymore run at a relative crawl with sprint finishGiven he will very likely be ridden prominently in the Supreme If he lines up the latter of the two scenarios
I can’t see a way he loses the BB if running to form
I could see him losing the supreme if he’s ridden forward and something goes off like the clappers as he will then be running against the likely pace bias
Not going to surprise anyone I agree with finalfurlong.
The only thing I would add is that you wouldn’t expect a slowly run Supreme. In that race the field dictate to Townend and Ballyburn. In the Ballymore Townend can dictate the speed he wants to go. He could make all if he so wished. He has a style that suits galloping the opposition into the ground. He hasn’t led so far, but Townend hasn’t felt any need to tuck him in behind horses.
I have heard some people say soft (or worse) ground would be an argument for running Ballyburn in the Supreme. Not so sure about that as I doubt the field will slow down that much, and it could result in a slow motion finish. Class and slow motion isn’t a good mix. With extremes of ground there is always the chance that something might pop out the woodwork and produce a performance that nobody expects.
There were a couple of bookmakers Previews streamed tonight. I ended up giving up on both well before the finish. Popularity of these on the wane?
Anyway, Paul Townend was on the Ladbrokes one. Despite Jennings slanting questions in favour of the Supreme, and the bookmakers rep (they really want him in the Supreme) talking as if it was a done deal, I don’t think we learnt much at all. No real surprise. In fact given that Townend (after a very long pause) said he didn’t think the Ballymore was an easier target for Ballyburn, I would be inclined to take anything he said with a huge dollop of salt.
A journalist (Mark Boylan) was on both previews. I didn’t know who to be more embarrassed for, him, or the trainer, when he said Ballyburn was more likely to run in the Supreme because the trainer wanted to win the opening race. So if the Ballymore was the opening race he would presumably run in that? Further confirmation, if true, that what may suit the horse best has little to do with the thought process.
Markets would strongly suggest a decision has been made and Ballyburn goes Supreme. As suspected Tullyhill, Mystical Power, and Ballyburn would not run in the same race so it looks as if Mystical Power (despite being unproven at the trip and looking much more suited to two miles) is the fall guy and will be shunted into the Ballymore. Both decisions make no sense whatsover to me.
It’s the second dubious decision regarding a McManus horse after Fact To File was confirmed for a longer race having also had no experience over the trip.
You also have to wonder why anyone can believe a word that Mullins comes out with. He clearly stated the Ballyburn decision would be last minute, and a few days ago on the ATR stable tour he was saying it was the Supreme for Mystical Power. It just looks as if he has been waiting to move one horse aside even if it now means he has two horses running over the wrong trip. This would look clueless for a minor trainer, but unbelievable for a trainer at the top of the sport.
For the record I thought that Mystical Power and Firefox were the most likely winners of the Supreme.
We agree that connections would be taking a risk on whether Mystical Power will stay the trip in the Bingham, Stlivi. However, if Ballyburn runs in the Supreme I doubt JP wants both of his best novices to run against what looks at this stage to be by far the best novice around… Ballyburn takes out such a massive percentage of the book that Mystical Power probably stands a better overall chance of winning by taking a stamina risk in the Bingahm… Than running against Ballyburn in – a race MP’s certain to stay the trip – the Supreme.
So if Ballyburn goes Supreme it makes sense for not only Mullins, but also JP to send Mystical Power for the Bingham.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.