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If Ballyburn runs in the Supreme then, to me, Mystical Power and Tullyhill can’t be that good if Willie feels he can’t leave it to one of them beating the remainder of, what looks like, ‘an ok but nothing special’, field.
I get the vibes and they are only vibes nothing concrete that Ile Atlantique is their 2nd best novice hurdler in Willie’s (or Paul’s) mind which is why Ballyburn might end up in the Supreme. Regards Mystical Power and Tullyhill, they could easily be better than anything else in the race bar Ballyburn. I can see him fielding a 1-2-3 and the writing will be on the wall early doors for how this festival could pan out.
If Ile Atlantique were so good why has he been beaten so many times, and if he was so good why would they be prepared to run Mystical Power against him. Ballyburn would walk all over him, but isn’t going to be given the chance to do that.
I think Mullins is far from certain to get the win in the Supreme, let alone the 1-2-3.
I read a piece tonight from Patrick Mullins from mid Feb clearly stating that Ballyburn was better over further, and Gary O’Brien only stated last week that David Casey preferred the Ballymore option. So it appears that Mullins hasn’t listened to either his son, or the assistant trainer. More and more I feel this is merely an attempt to try and justify the two-mile campaign that he has given the horse.
Just to clarify I don’t personally think Ile Atlantique is that good and I agree he’s been beaten a few times but its similar to the Facile Vega stuff, Willie always seems to come up with an excuse for the horse and very much downplays horses like Readin Tommy Wrong beating Ile Atlantique like it isn’t a reflection on their respective abilities but just how things panned out on the day. I’d be careful what you read/hear in some of the preview stuff, I’m convinced some of them just go on them for the craic and will say conflicting stuff on different ones just to put the cat amongst the pigeons.
On the other points, Mystical Power is JP’s horse first and foremost, won’t be Paul Townends ride wherever he goes and he has the talking horse Jeriko in the Supreme too although he’s not averse to running them against each other.
I can’t see where the opposition comes from in the Supreme even if Ballyburn goes up in trip. Firefox maybe and maybe Jeriko finally lives up to his potential but they are both big maybes and there is nothing else. The Firefox form with Ballyburn’s been taken far too literally given he had fitness and a lot of Willie’s were coming on for the run. He’s got a lot to prove after the last day. Slade Steel isn’t a 2 miler is he? Somebody had to finish 2nd to Ballyburn at the DRF and he seemed to very much be beating horses from Willie who either won’t be coming on the boat or will be going in handicaps.
Unless the markets have got it spectacularly wrong it looks a done deal that Ballyburn goes Supreme, and Mystical Power is shunted off the Ballymore.
I find it hard to believe that Magical Power didn’t have a far better chance of winning the Supreme than Jeriko Du Reponet. That horse didn’t beat that much on his first two starts, and then looked very laboured winning at Doncaster. I know that form has had a little boost, but its been boosted by horses going the handicap route. The form looks a stone light. Assuming Elliott has got Firefox back on track, I wouldn’t discount him. Watched that defeat of Ballyburn a few times now, and although the second is staying on, he isn’t getting a whole lot closer to Firefox. Essentially, I think Firefox is just the quicker horse. He’s the one I would consider backing on the day against the favourite who I believe could well be a drifter. The current price is terrible. I am not a bookmaker, but I see him as a 2/1 shot even with Mystical Power conveniently moved out the way.
I haven’t previously mentioned the owner in this, but he doesn’t seem to have much of a clue. Perhaps it’s a similar story with a lot of these high powered owners. More money than sense? According to one of the previews it was his decision that Ballyburn didn’t travel for the bumper last year. Happy passing up a very likely winning chance, when seemingly every other owner with a chance didn’t mind running. So he was worried about the impact of that race, but he’s quite happy to see his horse continually run over a trip short of his best?
I agree with your point about Slade Steel, and the previews in general. The problem about Slade Steel is that (even though he wants further than two miles) he has been used as a marker for Ballyburn winning the Supreme. Fair enough if you thought Slade Steel was the second best two mile novice, but he isn’t.
Just heard another preview where Danny Mullins says that Ballyburn should be going Ballymore. It’s seems to be stacking up that eveyone around the horse bar Mullins himself favours the longer race.
“I can’t remember a more frustrating ante-post year with the novices.”
It’s nothing new with the Mullins horses. I remember when Sir Gerhard won the 2m race at Leopardstown, some of the backers for the Supreme on here thought it had to be the Supreme next, and some of the supporters for the Ballymore said he would still be aimed there.
Ballyburn again shortening for the Bingham, Stilvi.
…And drifted from 11/8 to 2/1 for the Supreme.
Value Is EverythingYes, noticed that. There seemed to be a massive surge last week in favour of the Supreme. Something must have sparked that, but I haven’t a clue what it is. Are these people just guessing?
Anyway, I think I need to concentrate on trying to salvage something from the rest of my ante-post wreck. Normally at this stage I have a big price and a bit of hope attached to it. This year I would put up White Rhino as my best, but he still has to get in, and it looks to me like a very good renewal.
Will be avoiding tonight’s Paddy Power preview. In my opinion three hopeless tipsters, and guaranteed zero balance in the Ballyburn debate.
Suspect the volatile market is something to do with punters trying to guess what the ground will be at Cheltenham.
Whatever you or I might think:
The theory goes… The sounder the surface the more likely Ballyburn is to stay the Bingham trip and therefore the more likely he is of running in the Bingham. Possibly them believing Good or Good-soft Bingham – soft or heavy Supreme.Expected to be dry for the next four days at Cheltenham followed by some drizzle and light rain.
Value Is EverythingMaybe, but I find it hard to believe that I am alone in thinking he would have no issues with the 3m trip, whatever the ground. I mentioned the ground aspect earlier. Next weekend’s weather will probably cement the ground, one way or the other.
Ballyburn confirmed for the Ballymore.
Fingers crossed all goes smoothly over the next few days.
Hopefully, that was the difficult part. In my mind I couldn’t have done anything more to talk him over the line. Of course he now has to go and win. Interesting to see how many of the 25 drop away. I’m surprised so many stayed in. As I said before the only way I see him getting beat is if that DRF took a greater toll than we know.
Me too Mike but I am sure it is for a different reason
I am on Mystical Power at 14/1 for the Supreme 
Interesting that Mullins still has the first three in the betting for this, all probable runners, 2 of the first 3 in the Supreme betting, pretty much the first 3 in the betting for the Albert Bartlett. If you believe the betting and I was alluding to this for a few weeks now, he could dominate the novice hurdles this Cheltenham in a manner we’ve never seen before.
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