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When a trainer has just one horse to decide which race to go for it’s a lot easier, Stilvi.
Mullins often has three fancied horses in each race to find races for.I like a good discussion, with you or anyone else. But no “devils advocate” here, I can assure you.
tbh You do seem to believe everyone – whether it’s bookmakers, Hislop, Delargy, Walsh, Mullins or me – all have an ulterior motive if we dare disagree with you.
Is it really likely we all have an ulterior motive?
Or could it be we just disagree with your own valid opinion?Value Is Everything” no trainer would tell anyone anything ”
Not all trainers have Mullins’ strength in depth and not all meetings are the Cheltenham Festival
Poor argument, really
Yesterday, Mullins finally made one decision, not as helpful as the other one, but a decision nonetheless. Again I think it was the wrong one, but at least he has provided some clarity.
Going by what you are saying you would have advised him to say nothing (and continue the log jam) because of the potential for punters calling him names. I think that is nonsensical, hence the phrase I used.
More information is good for punters, and in this instance good for racing.
You quoted Delargy – I don’t think I have quoted him before – and I listened to him on a podcast likening Ballyburn to Best Mate, Kicking King, and War Of Attrition. Nobody corrected him, but given they won zero Supreme’s between them, I don’t think it’s that great an argument. Those horses went off 6/1, 13/2 and 33/1. They were not considered the best of the crop. Does he think sending out the best novice of the season to get beaten is anything other than a failure? I would say that Ballyburn has something like a 5 times better chance of winning a Ballymore than a Supreme. The only real worry I would have is that his last run might have taken more out of him than people think.
All of this verbal sparring/flirting is wonderfully entertaining, chaps, although I’ve got to say that whichever race he ends up in, Ballyburn will likely remain the nap of the week alongside Lossiemouth in the mares’ race.
No danger he’s beat in either
When Fact To File is the only Mullins horse in the Brown’s Anniversary that stands any chance of being a short priced fav… ie If FTF ran in the Turners then Mullins would not have a good chance of winning the BA… And (unlike Supreme and Ballymore) the Brown’s A still has much more prestige than the Turners…
So running Fact To File in the BA is the obvious race so might as well announce it, Stilvi.You criticised all those on the PP podcast, so that included Delargy.
I’ll say this once more and that’s it…
Going in to the Irish Grade 1 there were question marks about whether Ballyburn would be suited by the 2 miles… But Ballyburn put all questions to rest. Proving his speed, you could see him quickening well (not just staying on),,, Whilst (unlike in previous races) settling better. On the clock it was impressive.Yes, if Mullins thinks he has many good 2 milers and not many 2m5ers then he may take a chance on Ballyburn not being free at the longer trip, but it would be a greater risk given the need to race slower than he would in the Supreme..
Value Is EverythingSo you have backtracked now to say it’s alright to announce some things, but not others? That’s quite convenient.
The fact that Mullins has more horses just means he should have formed more plans. He should know about his Festival horses by now, and that includes knowing their optimum distance. I believe you send horses over their best distance, and if that means four in one race, and one in another, so be it. Unfortunately, Mullins clearly doesn’t work like that. Too often it seems it’s a case of trying to get away with it, and Ballyburn is one of those.
Said it a million times but the DRF just confirmed that he could beat a mediocre Grade 1 field, showing zero improvement on his bumper form, and a finishing effort that was the weakest of his career having used up more petrol than ideal for a stayer to maintain his position. I really hope that you are not seriously comparing the time to State Man’s win where Impaire Et Passe went sidewards, and State Man just went fast enough for an easy win.
Anyway the movement tonight strongly suggests he is going to bungle it. No real surprise. Something must have triggered that movement today. Everything in behind him in the Ballymore market is being supported. Sorry to say, but I suspect those who think he can win a Supreme as easy as a Ballymore are in for a nasty shock.
I really like Slade steel for this if ballyburn goes elsewhere
Not taken to ile atlantique at all
You keep drawing me back for another bout…
Stilvi,
I have not “backtracked”, if you look it is clear that I’ve talked about where Mullins has a lot of good chances in several races (like the novice hurdle division) then delaying a decision makes sense. As it does in similar circumstances when he has a lot of the shortest priced horses… But that does not apply in the Brown’s
When one Mullins horse has a far greater chance in the most prestigeous novice chase than any other Mullins horse, then he is far more likely to run that horse… and announce it.- Whether you or I believe it is the best race for the horse.Ballyburn beat the current favourite for the Bingham 7 lengths in that “mediocre grade 1” Stilvi… And Slade Steel went another 7 lengths clear of the third. ie Ballyburn beat the third horse 14 lengths. When there is 14 lengths to the third horse, the third does not need to be a top horse for the winner to be rated highly. That’s just what “form” is in my book.
Even if believing Ballyburn is best at 2m5f, do you really believe Slade Steel is “mediocre”? Surely SP would’ve needed to put up a fairly good performance at 2m even if he’s expected to improve on it at 2m5f?State Man finished the 2 miles a lot faster over the last two flights than Ballyburn, because State Man ran the earlier part of the race much slower and is (for the moment) the better horse. However, for a novice (those three words are very important) Ballyburn still comes out smelling of roses. The comparison I would make is with every other race at the meeting too. Not just State Man. Fact is Ballyburn can maintain a fast 2 mile pace, and that is what the Supreme is likely to be – especially with Tullyhill as pacemaker. That Irish Grade 1 performance of Ballyburn was far better than any other Cheltenham bound novice hurdler.
“showing zero improvement on his bumper form”,
You don’t half come out with some statements, Stilvi.
If anyone sees me writing another word on Ballyburn, please shoot me!
Value Is EverythingI’m only going the Wed this year, so concentrating my ap bets there. I know that Asian Master has an entry in the opener, but for ap purposes, I’ve bet him here 33/1 nrnb
It’s again ridiculous to suggest Fact To File has a far greater chance in the Brown Advisory than the Turners. The market certainly didn’t suggest that was the case. He’s unproven over the longer trip, something even you have cast doubt about on the other thread.
The DRF race revolves around what you think of Slade Steel as a Grade 1 two-miler. My opinion is not very much. The race was dominated by just two horses (that’s how weak it was), both stayers. They were able to dominate because the rest were not simply not very good.
I was wrong about the bumper comparison. In the bumper Ballyburn beat Slade Steel 7.75 lengths giving 7lbs, but in the two mile hurdle he has beaten Slade Steel 7 lengths at levels. So in fact relative to that horse it’s a 7lbs worse performance. The two-mile trip has actually brought them closer together. I actually made it sound better than it was. Apologies for that.
I think Asian Master is pretty certain for the Supreme as he’s considered a free running sort. Presumably, his inexperienced rider will not be able to claim.
“It’s again ridiculous to suggest Fact To File has a far greater chance in the Brown Advisory than the Turners”.
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Where did I suggest that, Stilvi?
Value Is EverythingDo you not think that both Ballyburn and Slade Steel have improved since the NHF race in April last year, Stilvi?
No, the form of the DRF does not particularly rely on what I think of Slade Steel.
It relies much more on both overall time compared to his own sectionals and overall and sectional times compared to other races… Which tells me (with a massive degree of certainty) how good both B and SS are. ie If Ballyburn was not a bloody good horse (over the 2m trip and ground) he would not be able to put up an overall time and sectionals he did.Ok So shoot me!
Value Is EverythingI am not sure what relevance there is to asking whether they have both improved. The question to ask is why Slade Steel managed to find more than 7lbs improvement over Ballyburn. It couldn’t possibly have anything to do with Ballyburn running over a trip short of his best, could it?
If all else fails try baffling people with sectionals. As I keep saying Ballyburn’s finish was not great, at best he was just holding the runner up. That is mirrored in the closing sectional. If he is slowing down to that extent in a race which turned into a match against another stayer, it’s more than likely he is going to be slowing down even more in a (much) better race. I don’t think he is any better at two miles than Facile Vega, and I can see a similar scenario to last year. Assuming he has managed to maintain an early position (not a given), he has to hope there isn’t a horse to cut him down in the way Marine Nationale disposed of Facile Vega. The negatives are certainly not reflected in his price for the Supreme.
“If all else fails try baffling people with sectionals”.
——————————–This is what you said yourself on a post on this page, about this very race Stilvi…
“I really hope that you are not seriously comparing the time to State Man’s win where Impaire Et Passe went sidewards, and State Man just went fast enough for an easy win”.
It is clear from this that you yourself know the importance of sectionals. How fast they go at all parts of a race.
Ok for you to use sectionals…Value Is Everything
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