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I have just come off what seemed like a lifetime arguing the case that Ballyburn should go Ballymore rather than the Supreme. The horse vindicated everything I said running out the most impressive winner of the meeting, and probably one of the most impressive ever Festival winners.
He travelled all over his rivals, and finished the race off as if going further would be an even bigger plus. He looked potentially the most exciting staying novice chaser we have seen for a quite a while.
Then immediately afterwards Mullins starts chirping up about a Champion Hurdle campaign. Looking at that race I can’t believe anyone in their right mind would think about cutting him back in trip again. Nobody should even contemplate running him over two miles again.
Let’s consider the facts. Mullins already has State Man and Lossiemouth for the Champion Hurdle. They are proper two-milers, he doesn’t need anything else. Ballyburn is 6, and it would be usual to send a horse novice chasing in it’s 6/7 season, if not before. Gaelic Warrior is the same age, and has already had a season chasing. If you keep Ballyburn over hurdles you are simply wasting a chasing season.
The bookmakers don’t believe this idea – you only have to look at the odds – but it is now being pushed by the media, just in the same way they pushed for the Supreme. They got that wrong, and I hope they have got this wrong as well.
Unless he’s being contrary for the sake of it, Mullins needs another tap on the head. Let’s hope the owner will guide him in the right direction again. He won’t win a Champion Hurdle, and if he goes that route it will likely seriously jeopardise his chances of winning the Gold Cup. Forcing a horse to do something away from his natural could eventually sour him. That is a chance that shouldn’t be explored any further.
You just home commonsense prevails, but it seems nothing is straightforward with Mullins.
Depends on how state man is next season. He clearly runs below par at Cheltenham. Plus will c hill be back and firing. His speed has obviously surprised them. Plus he has a very strong hand in the gold cup already.
Go back and watch what he did to the Supreme winner Slade Steel at the DRF over 2m.
Applying your metric then the likes of an Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Faugheen would never have contested and won 6 Champion Hurdles between them. Many Champion Hurdlers are equally as adept over further than 2m (Monksfield, Dawn Run, Morley Street, Flakey Dove, Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Jezki, Faugheen, Annie Power & Honeysuckle all spring to mind).
Absolutely no guarantee that he will take to chasing let alone stay the Gold Cup trip – yes one of his relatives did win over 3m4f (but was also PU twice over that trip too and he won mostly over 3m) and another won over 3m1f but the rest of them were 3m horses and as we have seen, 3m-3m1f winners often get found out in a Gold Cup (L’Homme Presse and Bravemansgame in the last two years alone).
Ballyburn is not short of pace and if you rewatch the Cheltenham race again Townend was having to keep a firm grip of him early on as he quite clearly would have liked going a stride or so quicker than they were.
Don’t be at all surprised if he isn’t dropped back in trip to 2m for the Champion Novice at Punchestown – after all Willie did the exact same thing with Faugheen who won said race by 13L (his first run at 2m since his bumper win the previous year).
I think people are always looking for the next horse to do something amazing. Constitution Hill still has a chance to be amongst the best ever, but he isn’t now going to win 4 or 5 champion hurdles in a row. Galopin is brilliant but another GC win will “only” bring him level with the likes of Best Mate.
So the next “is it impossible” scenario people can latch onto, dream of and talk about is the “Dawn Run double”. It may be impossible in this day and age- and the fact that he is 6 not 5 makes margin for error tighter (do you try to do a Coneygree and put him in the gold cup in his novice year, or do you spend a season novice chasing and tee up one shot at the big one aged 9?).Some people said similar things when Istabraq won the same race.
Value Is EverythingI don’t envisage Ballyburn staying over hurdles but I very much can see him coming back to 2 miles for an Arkle campaign. He travels, stays and has a potent turn of foot.
This time last year there wouldn’t be many people predicting Gaelic Warrior would win the Arkle.
Willie now has plenty of prospective novice top class chasers, he’s got the Gold Cup winner GDC and the next in line FTF, got the best established 2 mile chaser El Fabiolo and last year’s Energumene to come back, as well as Gaelic Warrior. Whereas he does not have many top class hurdlers. State Man will be 8 years old next season – which I am sure is the reason Lossiemouth might go for the Champion. She’s a bloody good mare but would need to improve 1 1/2 stone to give an in form Constitution Hill a race. Ditto Mystical Power… On looks physically Ballyburn is a chaser in the making, but he isn’t a normal Champion novice hurdler, not quite as good as Constitution Hill’s Supreme, but still brilliant. If anything is going to reach Constitution Hill’s level it will be Ballyburn… And am sure Mullins would love to beat a top form Constitution Hill.
Yes, he has the scope to make a chaser, yes he stays 2m5f and eventually probably 3m given the chance… But the fact remains, to do what he did to the Supreme Novice winner at 2m strongly suggests he’ll be equally effective back at 2m. So – given all Mullins’ horses strengths – I can understand him wanting or at least thinking about taking the Champion Hurdle route.
Value Is EverythingIf Constitution Hill runs again this season, make sure Ballyburn is entered in the same race. You’ll know from that result whether he’s a Champion Hurdle horse or whether he’s a Samcro.
I find it very likely that Constitution Hill won’t run again this season: his performance over two and a half at Aintree last season was the least impressive of his career, and Henderson is too gutless to send the horse over to Punchestown, especially off a less-than-ideal preparation.
Pity, as it would be nice to shut up these State Man apologists by slamming him in his own back yard. Not that they would shut up, mind.
I wonder if WPM will look at Impaire Et Passe’s wasted season and decide it isn’t worth persevering over hurdles with Ballyburn? Send him straight over fences, with the 2026 Gold Cup his target.
Probable, but my impression was State Man was doing what was necessary in beating Irish Point. It was a shame Constitution Hill didn’t partake, maybe next year we’ll have the clash of the titans with CH vs SM.
Ballyburn might go for the Champion Hurdle and against two titans could be value, but place is best I think he’s good for.
Stayers route may make more sense, or straight to chasing which might be more open.
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.I very much doubt Ballyburn will go down the Stayers Hurdle route. He looks far too good for that. If he stays hurdling, it will only be because Mullins thinks he can win a Champion.
If he was mine, he would be going novice chasing. If you have a chaser, I don’t see the point of spending another season over hurdles. Impaire Et Passe and Samcro have both been mentioned. Both also won the Baring Bingham and both sets of connections wasted the next season by trying to make them into Champion Hurdle horses (to be fair, Samcro’s season was curtailed by injury).
Galopin Des Champs may only have one season left at the very top. Priming Ballyburn for the Gold Cup 2026 must be in Mullins’s thoughts.
Glad I’m pretty sure we’ll see a few of Henderson horses at Punchestown , prime reason , the yard made 60k at Cheltenham , £6k for Nicky , Nico made zilch bar riding fees , bills still need to be paid
I don’t think there is any reason for him to stay over hurdles and drop in trip when looking at his pedigree. His dam has produced Planet Nine, Minella Daddy (won over fences at 3m1f and 3m4f) and Noble Endeavor (3m winner over fences) and all three of them seemed better suited by proper trip rather than 2m.
Why would you have him jump and get used to the smaller obstacles for another year when he clearly shows he’s capable of staying three miles and surely has the ability to jump fences properly?
But I guess WPM already has next season’s route carefully planned for him.
The speed figure he clocked certainly suggests will be competitive in the champion hurdle. Pedigrees can throw up oddities and he seems much quicker than his pedigree would suggest.
The Arkle, the Champion Hurdle, the NH Chase (Bobby will have to back Ballyburn for this), the Broadway, the Champion Chase, the Turners, the Ryanair, the Stayers’ Hurdle, the Cheltenham Gold Cup – when they change the rules enabling Ballyburn to win all nine of these races at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, all contributors to this thread will be able to take a chill pill and it will be “pay! pay!” all the way and across the board in those hallowed ante-post halls and corridors in Big Race Discussion.
Me?
I just look forward to wherever the horse is declared at the 48-hour stage to run next.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Apparently Mullins said in an interview with the Racing Post today: “I’ll teach that Stilvi on ‘The Racing Forum’ for saying it’s ‘bonkers’ to go for the Champion Hurdle. I’m after taking the Dawn Run route with this lad now.”
10/1 with the books in places.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"He’ll go chasing i think. You know what he’s like, he talks up his ‘stars’ as being good over any trip and then when the dust settles he’ll do what we thought he would do in the majority of cases. Plus he’s 7 next year if he’s going to be a Gold Cup horse no point f*nnying around over hurdles.
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