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WATCHABLE 16/1 ran good races in decent handicaps at Royal Ascot and was behind Intrinsic this year too.
MISSION APPROVED 25/1
He is 10/1 at Coral which is intresting it is was 2nd at Goodwood in decent handicap and Cumani not someone who targets sprint handicaps i think he will with this horse.
Compton Park is 33s in places and would be a third of that should he sneak in off a mark of 95. We have horses in training with Les Eyre and there’s a chance he goes for the Portland Handicap next week at Doncaster. A win there would see him run under an 8lb penalty and could ensure his participation.
I’ll be on
Discussiontofollow
again at 16/1
He is consistent and was in the process of placing again in The Stewards Cup before meeting some interference and finishing 6th. The winner of that race Intrinsic would obviously warrant an interest if he actually runs.
Discussiontofollow started his handicap career off a mark of 68 last December and ran in the Stewards Cup off 98. Not a bad progression over the 8 months. He’s got low mileage and there are some right old cuddies in that field. He should be thereabouts.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good shout with Discussiontofollow there Steve.
The old mug punter tactic of finding horses with 1111 in their form is not so silly in sprint handicaps. When you think about all the split-second decisions, head starts and interference that happens, rattling up a sequence is more of an achievement in these races than any others.
Discussiontofollow got a little unbalanced, but was definitely running on for a place before Intrinsic shifted across and intimidated him last time. He’ll be much happier at Ayr.
Muthmir
is hot favourite for this after nearly falling out of the stalls, then getting sandwiched at a crucial stage, before coming round the field and winning as easy as pie in today’s Portland, where he opened as 9/1 favourite midweek. Paul Hanagan looked stunned that the horse had overcome those setbacks and then broken the track record.
Needless to say, 16/1 was never going to last after today’s show but the 3/1 offered by Corals now is as scandalous a price as I have ever seen.
Connections have indicated that he is an unlikely runner because he didn’t run well when he ran twice in a short space of time, when he was 5th in the Stewards Cup. With that in mind 3/1 looks suicidal and insulting when 8/1 is available elsewhere.
With that in mind and Intrinsic seemingly having developed a problem, it seems prudent to double the bet on Discussiontofollow at 16/1.
These bookies have some neck at cutting a horse from 16/1 to 3/1 and then not pushing any other runner out in the betting, when one runner has just gobbled up quarter of the book
With connections saying he’s unlikely to run and also stating the horse won’t run on slower ground than good, I think I can just about summon up enough moral fibre to resist Coral’s generous offer of 3/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There may be another alteration to the Ayr Gold Cup market today as leading candidates Watchable and Discussiontofollow clash in the opener at The Curragh.
These horses have similar profiles and have identical handicap marks. Uncannily they are also drawn right next to each other in stalls 19 and 20 in a 21 runner race.
They are both 6f winners but Watchable has only won once at the trip and has been running at 7f recently and this will be only his second start on fast ground.
Discussiontofollow has several wins at 6f and a win at 5f. He goes well on GF, has a more progressive looking form line and finished just behind Portland winner Muthmir last time in the Stewards Cup.
Discussiontofollow
ticks more boxes for me and overall looks more of the sprinter of the two. He has run at the Curragh before and put in a terrific 3rd, beaten only half a length and a neck in the Paddy Power Scurry. He is a clear pick for me on trip and ground factors and I can’t see why they are identical odds at 7/1 when you delve deeper into the form. I’ll be having a good bet on him at 7/1 today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
As often happens when you narrow it down to two, the "other one" does the business. Watchable answered my questions regarding the going with a good display at The Curragh today and was clipped in to 12/1 for the Ayr Gold Cup in the process.
Discussiontofollow didn’t get the greatest start in the world but seemed to travel well enough. His run simply petered out though and it’s hard to see him reversing the form at Ayr. C’est La Vie.
This O’Meara guy can fairly train sprinters.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Happy WATCHABLE still in but low draw not idea has 5 looking at form last night and another horse i like is
YORK GLORY 33/1
Drawn high he loves big field won Wokingham last year and not in same form as last year but Ryan loves having winner of race see him going close.
Ashpan Sam
looks a decent price to me at 25’s, and I’m happy to take a chance on him.I really want two though, and same price on Louis The Pious is the one that’s drawing me in.
I’m with you on
Ashpan Sam
, VTC.
I had a bit of 25/1 on Tuesday when I noticed connections were quick to secure the services of Kieren Fallon.
He gave weight to both Intrinsic and Watchable when splitting that pair at Goodwood in May, and followed up impressively at Epsom on Derby day. Seemingly lost his way before an eye-catching effort last time out over five furlongs behind Blaine at York.
Has gone on pretty much anything in the past, but wouldn’t mind a touch of rain.
Jack Dexter
is a decent sort,not very big but even with top weight can run a place at 16/1.However the horse that jumps off the page is his stable companion in receipt of 10lb and thats the 20/1 shot
Hawkeyethenoo
,I expect a big run from this ex Group 1 campaigner off a mere 8-11.
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Supplicant for me, up the Fahey bandwagon!
This is one of my lesser-favourite type of big-field handicaps though so won’t be betting much as it’s often won by a horse on a slight, gradual upward curve rather than one that’s been dropping down the weights and targeted for the race a year in advance.
Absolutely massive draw bias in evidence today. Right up against the stands rail is the place to be.
Low numbers 1-10 Jack Dexter, Alben Star, Hamza, Ruwaiyan, Ashpan Sam, Watchable, Burn The Boats and Minalisa can be practically struck off your lists imo.
I’m sticking with my old friend Barnet Fair, who’s drawn in the right place with the right jockey. He’ll love a fast pace to tow him into it and his Stewards Cup Consolation form looks absolutely white-hot in hindsight.
Happy WATCHABLE still in but low draw not idea has 5 looking at form last night and another horse i like is
YORK GLORY 33/1
Drawn high he loves big field won Wokingham last year and not in same form as last year but Ryan loves having winner of race see him going close.
For exactly the same reasons as Darren, I’m taking the only remaining 33/1 with William Hill. Distance and draw are perfect, and as no rain is forecast, good or faster is fine.
It’s true he has not been running well of late, but as a consequence he has dropped down from 109 to 100, which was the same weight he carried when he last won, which was the Wokingham.
It doesn’t bother me too much that he has been out of form, as sprinters seem to pop up without any rhyme or reason. Let’s hope it’s his turn tomorrow.
I have had a play on Go Far each-way at 22/1. Drawn in the middle, he hopefully has options on where to play his hand. On the upgrade on his last three runs he was a tad unlucky not to place in the Portland last week behind the impressive Muthmir.
There are a few who could win this well enough at their best but the glory days are a bit distant and I’d rather back a horse with an upward profile. Watchable seems sure to be there but looks ominously weak in the betting. Perhaps his low draw is the issue but he was in control of his last race most of the way last time, so I’ll have a win only saver on him in case the draw doesn’t pan out to favour the high numbers.
I’ll leave the Silver Cup and just observe for further draw evidence.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
One factor of the huge draw bias from the later races on the card today at Ayr was the bunching. Every jockey wanted to be as close to the rail as possible and was tugging on the right rein all the way, so racing room was at a premium.
If your horse needs to come from behind, it may find even more traffic than usual and find it hard to weave through the slow ones. There will be no golden splits up the inside and plenty of barging. With that in mind, my slight fancy for Heaven’s Guest has evaporated – Samantha Bell isn’t the most rugged in these situations.
It’s still Barnet Fair for me. Hopefully Cam Hardie is smart enough to go around the pack rather than through it when it’s time to start pushing.
I’m with you on
Ashpan Sam
, VTC.
I had a bit of 25/1 on Tuesday when I noticed connections were quick to secure the services of Kieren Fallon.
He gave weight to both Intrinsic and Watchable when splitting that pair at Goodwood in May, and followed up impressively at Epsom on Derby day. Seemingly lost his way before an eye-catching effort last time out over five furlongs behind Blaine at York.
Has gone on pretty much anything in the past, but wouldn’t mind a touch of rain.
I hope you’ll be collecting then Bos
Still not went off him, and surprised to see a bit of 28’s as well, but I’ve had a few more quid on at the 25’s with Betfair, as they’re offering 6 places.
Some firms are going 33/1 Ashpan Sam now but Stan James are only 14/1. That seems a huge difference of opinion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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