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I do like the look of Duke of Firenze in the Ayr Gold Cup. I remember his dam, Nannina, and she could shift. But it’s unusual for Stoutey to have a runner in the AGC, I believe, and, while he’s inexperienced, he must have an awful lot of improvement in him.
I do like the look of the 3-year old Duke of Firenze in the Ayr Gold Cup. I remember his dam, Nannina, and she could shift. But it’s unusual for Stoutey to have a runner in the AGC, I believe, and, while he’s inexperienced, he must have an awful lot of improvement in him.
Grimes this
Duke of firenze
a very well bred Cheveley Park 3yo colt will need to get another win under his belt to even stand a chance of getting in the race,never mind winning it. A rating of 93 is a good 6lb less than what he should be but unfortunately its too low to get in the Ayr Gold Cup,he needs to get up to the 100 mark to guarantee a run,he’s not the 12/1 fav for nothing but it looks like the Silver cup for him,my idea of the winner is
Hawkeyethenoo
at 14/1,yes he’ll be top weight but he’ll carry Graham Lee to victory imo.
The king I agree with you hawkeye has a great chance but surely our Jonathan could win it again looks like he’s been laid out for this race again and at 20/1 looks brilliant. I backed nathaniel at 25 like u said a while back but I can’t believe frankel was trading at 70s for the arc on bet fair so had a nice 30 on that , let’s hope he runs
I wondered about that, O King, but didn’t look into it any further. Hawkeye’s won a couple of big races already this season, hasn’t he? Which, of course, if true, is not say he couldn’t win the AGC. I must have another look. I’ll perhaps have something on him, too.
I bet on Our Jonathon last week or was the week before, Simon. He’s well-weighted and overdue, anyway.
I backed Hawkeyethenoo in the Stewards Cup although the stable was pretty quiet at the time. He is entered in the Sprint Cup at Haydock, which is probably stretching his ability. Hawkeyethenoo boasts a good strike rate for the type of animal he is, but the factor that made me back him at Goodwood was the fact that he runs really well in big fields. I will back him for the Ayr Gold Cup and hope he can come through off a strong pace and pinch it at the line.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It seems Hawkeye’s only won the one race this year, so that’s encouraging.
Now I’m wondering about the old boy, Borderlescott. He was carrying a stone less than when he was at his best. I don’t suppose he’d go up more than a few pounds, would he?
I had a little on him on the strength of a report that Robin Bastiman thought he got him back to close to his best when he ran for the Vernons Sprint, and now I’m kicking myself for not doubling my stake.
I’m sure it’s not the first time I should have placed similar confidence in the advice of a confident trainer, given other persuasive factors, as obtained today.
Likewise I put a small saver on Labarinto, and then heard he’d been gelded. I did strongly fancy Cecil’s expensive late Telegraph, but I’d have put a bit more on matey, had I known. Or maybe I read it and didn’t process it, prioritise it properly at the time I read it.
Knowledge is not enough, is it, in any case? Clear thinking – processing and prioritising on the day is crucial.
It seems Hawkeye’s only won the one race this year, so that’s encouraging.
He has only had five runs this year, you can discount the runs on soft and heavy ground as his form is best on good/good-firm. Also one of the races was a group 1 and another was over seven furlongs where he has won only once. He has had his optimum conditions of six furlongs and good ground only twice this year. He ran a cracker 3rd of 28 to Dandy Boy in The Wokingham and was 1st of 27 runners in the Stewards Cup. That is mighty compelling form if he were to get good/firm ground on the day at Ayr and a decent draw. The one downer is that his two previous runs in the race were moderate, one can be ruled out due to the soft ground but the other was really his only poor run in a big field over 6f when he has had his ground. He has won at Ayr over 5f though, so you couldn’t really say it is the course itself that he didn’t like.
Duke of Firenze is well bred and lightly raced, he could be open to plenty improvement but hasn’t raced in a field bigger than 13 runners and I would want a more experienced and battle hardened mount for a race that will be hustle bustle all the way.
On Oddschecker I see the two horses are joint favs at 14/1 at the moment. I know which one I would rather have!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You know what I fancy now, assuming Dookie doesn’t get in? Semple’s horse, Cheviot. It looks like this is meant to be his year, and he’s really bred in the purple.
As a 2 year-old and and 3 year-old just racing about three times, in each year; and he’s hardly been over-race since, but has improveed markedly recently, paticularly in that race on Saturday. And he may be better over 6, and doesn’t need it good or firm. 25s, best price at the moment.
Wait for the ground at Ayr before a bet. Last year it was sodden and you needed a horse that could go 7f. Forecast this week is not bad so that should make it a more open race.
Pearl Ice and Alben Star interest me as i dont think we have seen the best of them yet. Wouldnt put anyone off Borderlescott, looked like his old self at Beverley.I think The Cheka and Mass Rally for me. The Cheka is a group class horse and has the physique to carry weight. He is being aimed at the race.
Mass Rally is my 2nd choice. He got no run in the Portland yesterday and based on his fast finishing York effort previously he has an each way chance. Clearly you are not gonna back a horse like him at 14-1 or so, but if he gets in the race (or indeed the silver cup) and the fact he got a blocked run yesterday means he is 20-1 or more then he will be a stonking each way bet.
Waether alert !! the forecast has changed and now saying they could get a deluge on Wed/Thursday. From a punting perspective this could make things a lot easier although it does bring the draw more into the equation.
I like MIRZA will love this heavy ground been in decent form as well.Bet on Alben Star before ground went against him.
With the heavy ground and Kevin Ryans excellent record in the race I have gone for:
Win bet: Our Jonathon
EW bet: Captain Ramius
At the odds The Cheka looks a great each way bet to me. At 16/1 you are getting a horse who is pretty consistent and who brings an outstanding piece of form, albeit achieved on heavy ground that might be misleading, to the table. In finishing second to runaway winner Mayson in the July Cup, The Cheka finished in front of Society Rock and Ortensia in third and fourth, whom went on to lift the Haydock Sprint Cup and The Nunthorpe. Given that the ground will be heavy again tomorrow and that there is nothing of the calibre of those Gp1 winners in the field I think he has a sound chance.
No doubt Waffle will be popular again, based on his tendency to place in big field handicaps but at as low as 10/1 I think he is appalling value, as he has only ever won once in 24 starts, in a 2500 quid race. He doesn’t get his head in front often enough for my liking.
I am sticking with class for my cover bet in the race with Maarek, whom the ground dried up for and lessened his chance in the Wokingham. He still ran a great race that day behind Dandy Boy and I got my money back next time up. He has since won a G3 and the two things that make me want to back him are his ability to go on very soft ground and his excellent record in fields with 20 or more runners. At 12/1 he is well worth a saver in a race with a fair bit of chaff in it.
Happy punting and good luck.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Maarek for me, likes the heavy ground and the maaner he won his last race, was ridden quite early on in the race but came through quite stronglt toeards the finished. If he can get tucked away nicely in the race and make smooth headway should have a very good chance.
Will have a nibble on borderlescott as well.
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